There has been a lot of talk on this site in the comments and on other sites supporting the idea of the Braves signing outfielder Mike Cameron. I'd like to go on record as saying I DO NOT support any move in this direction, and I would be very critical of Atlanta if they made this move.
I don't get why people are so enamored with Cameron. I'll admit his defense is above average at times, but his bat is just not that exciting, nor does his bat accomplish any of the goals that this team needs to accomplish this off-season -- (1) get a power bat, (2) get a consistent hitter.
Cameron's speed has declined to the point where he's not a top of the lineup hitter. He also strikes out way too much to exist at the top of the lineup. He doesn't have enough power to be a middle of the lineup hitter, so that leaves him as a bottom of the lineup hitter, with aging speed, aging defense, and an aging and slowing bat. Did I mention he's only a year younger than Chipper? Odds are we'd be way overpaying for a 7th or 8th place hitter, or we'd be overplaying a guy in the top-to-middle of the lineup who should be at the bottom.
This obsession some folks have with Cameron has got to stop. Just because he's from Georgia, and says he wants to play near his home, doesn't mean that the Braves should sign him for any amount of money. He's just not the guy we need clogging up our outfield physically or fiscally. We already have a younger, better version of Mike Cameron, and his name is Nate McLouth.
1 recs | 172 comments
i pretty much agree
well said
Doghnut - December 8, 2009
I concur
Cameron is not the answer.
GORILLATUX - December 8, 2009
Amen, brother.
Chief Noc-A-Homa - December 8, 2009
Cameron had 24 HR’s last year that would have led the Braves. I would be completely fine with giving Cameron a 1 year deal. I want us to explore trade’s first but he isn’t that bad of option.
jack dein - December 8, 2009
This.
Scott Coleman - December 8, 2009 via mobile
Agreed. If Cameron doesn’t have enough power, then who that the Braves could realistically afford does? Cameron is a right handed, power bat who plays good defense and would likely sign a one year deal. That’s pretty much exactly what the Braves are looking for. He had a .342 OBP last year with 75 walks, so what does it matter how often he strikes out? He’d be fine hitting 5th or 6th for the Braves next year.
redwards95 - December 8, 2009
This.
Again. No he doesn’t have the power to be cleanup hitter, but as a 5-6 guy he’s fine, and like you say, his 24 Hrs would have led the team. Is he the singular answer? No. Signing Cameron is not the end-all-be-all of our offensive work. But can he be an excellent complementary piece that also upgrades the defense while coming cheap enough to leave room for us to try to trade for a big-name, well-paid 1B? Hells yeah.
J-Freak - December 8, 2009
Freaking this
Cameron would be perfect I think. Let’s just say we bring LaRoche back and then add Cameron and you are looking at a lineup with some pop. Think about it – we wouldn’t have some guy to hit 35-40 homers, but we would have a bunch of guys that could hit 20-25. The lineup and HR’s would look like this after a full season (without even Heyward)
McLouth: 20-25
Prado: 10 – 15
Chipper: 20 – 25
LaRoche: 25 – 30
McCann: 20 – 25
Cameron: 25
Escobar: 15
Diaz: 20
Who wouldn’t take that lineup???
alligatorimpersonator - December 8, 2009
You forgot KJ…
:)
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
haha
Maybe it’d be best if we ever talk about 2nd base to just package them together like so: KJ/Prado
Especially since KJ could still win the job because since KJ/Prado will be at the top of the lineup and KJ > Prado when it comes to getting on base
alligatorimpersonator - December 8, 2009
Justin,
You’re really good at spreading the KJ love. Which makes my job a lot easier. Kudos.
re:alligatorimpersonator (awesome handle, by the way):
McLouth: 20-25
Prado: 10 – 15
Chipper: 20 – 25
LaRoche: 25 – 30
McCann: 20 – 25
Cameron: 25
Escobar: 15
Diaz: 20
I think all of these are over-estimates except McCann and Chipper. I’d go:
Mclouth – 20
Prado – 9
Chipper 20-25
LaRoche – 25
McCann 20-30 (I think he can hit 30 HR’s. DON’T STOP, BELIVIN’!)
Cameron – 20
Escobar – 12 (I love the kid, my favorite player on the team. His swing ain’t geared towards HR. I see him as one of those .320/.390/.450 guy. Not that he ain’t one of the most important things in the organization)
Diaz is the biggest stretch. He’s a straight slap hitter. 12-14 is probably his ceiling.
Your overall point is valid, though.
Everyone’s focusing on offense these days. A few things to keep in mind.
The Braves were 6th in the NL in runs scored last year. They could stand to improve, of course, but baseball is half pitching (covered) and defense and half hitting (mostly covered, need to add a piece) and baserunning.
The Braves were 21st in defensive efficiency. They have got to improve that defense. Prado needs to lose weight, gain range, Chipper needs to re-learn how to play defense, 1B is going to be a massive downgrade from Kotchman (and don’t give me that "LaRoche is just as good as Kotchman B.S. That’s company line and insulting every fan’s intelligence). Yunel Escobar needs to keep his head in the game. Maybe we should prescribe him with ADHD meds.
They were also 29th in EqBRR (the comprehensive base-running metric at BPro). There’s only so much impact base running can have, but god damn, the Braves can do better than 20 fucking 9th. I mostly blame Brian Snitker for this, because he’s horrible, and I can’t count the number of times the Braves were unable to score from 1st on a 2-out double.
PWHjort - December 8, 2009
I agree, our defense needs some serious improvement. Cameron in center gives us great D in center, putting McLouth in left where he would be way above average, and Diaz in right where he would be ok.
And haha, I know what you mean, it seems like Snitker’s arm barely works. It’s like he has a torn rotator cuff or something. If he were to actually windmill someone around third Jeff Porter would have to run onto the field and tend to Snitker’s arm
alligatorimpersonator - December 8, 2009
We should have dropped to 30th in base-running...
…based on the Diaz fiasco at third base alone. Another stinker from Snitker.
cavebird - December 8, 2009
Can't see McCann ever getting to 30...
just too much wear and tear as a C.
Mr. Sanchez - December 8, 2009
prado hit more than 9 in a limited role this year, whats your reasoning for thinking he’ll only hit 9?
diaz hit 13 in a platoon role so why couldn’t he hit more than 12-14 if he got an everyday role
escobar is still young and developing, he hit 14 this year, if anything his power hasn’t fully developed…it wouldn’t surprise me at all if esco hit 25 hr’s in the next couple years
Hcgadawgs - December 8, 2009
Escobar's swing isn't conducive to hitting a lot of HR.
PWHjort - December 8, 2009
Finally
I have been thinking the same thing ever since I saw people posting that they wanted him. Stay clear ATL.
IDChop - December 8, 2009
Nate McLouth’s D right now in his prime can’t touch that of Cameron who is, as you say, on the decline.
The only thing that Nate has on Mike is base-stealing ability.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
Mike Cameron > Nate McLouth.
Not that either of them is particularly good. Cameron is a .780-.800 OPS bat with slightly above-average defense in center. McLouth is a .780-.800 OPS bat with slightly below-average defense in center.
PWHjort - December 8, 2009
And let’s be honest here, an aging player is someone like Garret Anderson. Mike Cameron is no FUGA.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
THIS
+1 internets for you.
J-Freak - December 8, 2009
I never understood the infatuation either
Makes no sense unless he were to take a nice fat hometown discount of a salary, which he won’t. The guy will ultimately go where the money is, source…a conversation (more of a heckling) I had with him a few years back…..
Me: Hey Mike, you suck and you’re a free agent in my fantasy baseball league.
MC: That’s yo fantasy………whatchu know about that 7 (referencing his 7 million salary)
Me: You make 7? I make 7 in an hour(referencing my minimum wage college job at the time), Braves are going to bend you over tonight
MC: That’s yo fantasy
Case closed.
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
That’s yo fantasy.
- l’dmao
Chief Noc-A-Homa - December 8, 2009
I'll give him this
He was a funny dude, we both got a good laugh out of it.
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
Yeah, I don't see how that exchange...
…shows Cameron is a bad light at all. If you are going to have to deal with hecklers, you might as well have a bit of fun with it.
cavebird - December 8, 2009
It doesn't
I really liked him after that conversation. I just used the “salary” thing sarcastically to share that short story.
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
Oh...
…that’s cool. Good story.
cavebird - December 8, 2009
Another good Cam story. Saw him in ST warming up DeFelice, who was starting that day. Cam stood in during warm ups, so DeFelice could get a sense of the zone. DeFelice threw a CB behind Cam, dude starts charging the bullpen mound, although he stopped half way and busted up.
Gotta love a guy like that.
Yakker - December 8, 2009
That’s pretty unbecoming of you.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
Gotta be careful with Cameron, he still kicks it to the right. He just wants to play on a team with Red in their team colors.
Mark Lempke - December 8, 2009
huh?
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
If Cameron is our top outfield choice, we already have equivalent cheaper internal
options and I think Wren knows this. I predict Wren, while not a big blockbuster deal, will find the exact bat this team needs.
HansonManCrush - December 8, 2009 via mobile
Who exactly is those internal options. Besides McLouth and Heyward we have no power hitters in our outfield.
jack dein - December 8, 2009
Diaz, while not as good defensively, hits for better average obp and has better speed
HansonManCrush - December 8, 2009 via mobile
So that means we have Diaz and Nate…no Church now, so who is the 3rd OF?
Heyward probably won’t make the team out of ST and Schafer needs a few ABs before he will be ready.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
Diaz also has bad L/R splits.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
his .749 OPS against righties wasn’t “bad.” It’s better than what Yunel did against lefties-though don’t ask me to explain why that is. It’s much better than what McLouth does against lefties, and there’s no talks about platooning him (though perhaps a Diaz/McLouth platoon would make sense).
Mike Cameron hits righties no better than Diaz anyway. We can’t just platoon everyone on the roster who isn’t Chipper Jones.
Bronn - December 8, 2009
While Diaz's 2009 numbers against righties weren't bad...
…his 2008 OPS of .356 was more than bad and his career .722 is pretty pedestrian. That being said, it is not particularly necessary to platoon him, we have plenty of guys who can hit righties. We might want to move him down in the order or something, however.
cavebird - December 8, 2009
i think we can all agree that 2008 never happened for Matt Diaz there were too many underlying things that affected his performance, namely injuries
Swo12bv - December 8, 2009
Exactly
He played only 43 games, and was hurt when he WAS playing. In the context of the last four years in his career, it’s a minor outlier.
Bronn - December 8, 2009
But does not have to power. Somewhere in these should-we-or-shouldnt-we MC talks, someone always brings up Diaz’s better avg/speed while forgetting that no one in the organization, save maybe Heyward IF he lights up from day one, has the power we’re seeking. Matt does have better contact/speed, but it doesn’t solve our power deficit to count on him alone and not consider adding someone with power to the OF mix. I love Matty and he’s a useful player, but insinuating he is the solution that allows us to ignore Cameron displays an ignorance of the very reason anyone is considering Cameron in the first place.
/rant
J-Freak - December 8, 2009
No one’s commented on the clearly biased picture I put up of Cameron. My propaganda is all encompassing.
gondeee - December 8, 2009
Haha
I loved it! A true metaphor speaking to what we’d really be getting with Cameron!
HansonManCrush - December 8, 2009 via mobile
A guy who busts his ass playing defense?
I don’t think it is an unflattering picture at all. Nor is the second.
cavebird - December 8, 2009
Classier than what my choice would have been
ouchers
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
Didn't that shatter his face?
Mark Lempke - December 8, 2009
Unfortunately, yes
Doesn’t pack the horrific punch when seen in a still.
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
what the picture does show is that MC actually caught that ball…he is a defensive wizard (literally)
Swo12bv - December 8, 2009
…actually the ball is loose down near his left ankle…
J-Freak - December 8, 2009
i know
Swo12bv - December 8, 2009
Ah.
Man., I know we said it last night, but the internet truly needs a freakin sarcasm font.
J-Freak - December 8, 2009
I personally disagree. This is because we will probably be lucky to only get one impact player. For example, we get an impact 1B, then I would sign Cameron to a one-year deal. Then we would have McLouth/Cameron/Diaz until Heyward is ready.
If we don’t get a person to play and instead get another OF, then Cameron wouldn’t be needed.
ChrisK562 - December 8, 2009
Gondee....I like you...but you are just wrong on this
Cameron most definitely would be a power bat in the outfield. I understand that you don’t like the guy at all but come on……….it’s just dishonest to say he wouldn’t give us a tremendous upgrade in the power department. Your posts are normally fair and clear-headed but this one is not! I don’t think we should sign the guy for big money but he is probably all the power the Braves can currently afford. If we aren’t able to trade for a big bat, then Cameron would be a perfectly acceptable alternative. He would improve our outfield defense by a good sized margin (McLouth would be really good in LF as opposed to slightly below average in CF). This would also allow us to feel better about RF with Diaz there either full-time or part-time splitting the position with one of our young outfielders. I am not totally enamored with the guy either, especially considering his low average, but we have payroll restrictions and he is probably one of our best options.
KC Ryan - December 8, 2009
I'm not totally against Cameron
But I’m not enamored with him either. I think this post was made to address the every-other-post you see lately proclaiming a tingling desire for us to sign him.
Let’s wait till we get Soriano and hopefully Lowe’s salary off the books before overypaying for Cameron. And yes, free agency = overpaying.
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
Who knows what the price will be.
Sometimes free agency is not overpaying—-ask the Angels about Abreau last year. I agree, we shouldn’t over pay and we do need to get rid of Lowe’s and Soriano’s salary first because first base is our first priority. One plus is the apparently trade that just went down sending Granderson to the Yankees—-that keeps the Yankees out of the Cameron bidding, and if they wanted him, we wouldn’t want to pay what it would take to get him.
cavebird - December 8, 2009
Abreu signing was a steal for Anaheim, I didn’t understand the lack of interest in him. He came off a solid year in NY. Cameron is drawing a fair amount of interest and when it becomes a bidding war, then it becomes overpaying. I should have specified. There are plenty of examples of players signed on the cheap and then producing. But more often than not, in a bidding war the player doesn’t end up outperforming their contract. For the right price Cameron is definitely an attractive option.
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
This
Yakker - December 8, 2009
Hoping the Cameron Haters See the Light.
I don’t get where gondee is coming from. It appears as if all he sees is age and completely fails to see performance. Cameron is an established player and is as WYSIWYG as they come. If we are looking for a RH, power bat, who is a consistent hitter as gondee suggests, Cameron rates pretty well on those metrics. He is right-handed. He does have power, maybe not as much as would be ideal, but he does have power. And he is as consistent as you are going to find. The past four years he has hit between 20-25 HR with an OPS between .759 and .838. And two of those years he did it in San Diego.
gondee sees declining speed, declining defense, and declining bat speed based purely on age. I assume that is why he sees it, because there isn’t any indication of this in his performance. The stolen based have come down. That’s it. Everything else, power, OBP, BBs, K’s, have all stayed about the same. His defensive metric numbers have stayed about the same. I guess I don’t have gondee’s insider scouting report here, but he does not appear to have declined significantly yet.
Yes, he is not young. Yes, that gives a risk of declining performance. However, it is not like anyone is suggesting signing him to a multi-year deal (although I would be okay with 2, fwiw).
gondee suggests that Cameron is not a top of the order hitter. I agree. His OBP is solid, but not good enough, and he doesn’t steal that much anymore. (Not that the Braves would have anyone run anyway.) gondee suggests that Cameron does not have enough power to be a middle of the order hitter. Here I disagree. Cameron had more HR than anyone on the Braves roster last year. If he doesn’t have enough power to be a middle of the order hitter, the Braves are in trouble and need to add about four hitters this offseason to replace the entire middle of our order. (and someone called me a pessimist in a thread the other day!) Yes, I would like a guy with more power to be clean-up, but there is no reason Cameron wouldn’t be fine hitting fifth or sixth.
Then there is defense. In one of the comments, someone extolled the value of Diaz over Cameron while just noting in passing that Cameron was better defensively. That is a massive understatement. Looking at the Braves OF options right now, McLouth is a average to slightly below average defensive CF and probably a slightly above average left fielder. Diaz is below average in either RF or LF and isn’t going to play center. Cameron is an above average CF, who would be a way above average LF. Signing Cameron would let us move McLouth to left, giving us a significant upgrade on the outfield defense. When Heyward takes over in RF, that would be a very impressive defensive outfield if the reports on Heyward’s defense are true (great range, incredible arm).
So, gondee, if you like Cameron so little, who do you suggest is better?
cavebird - December 8, 2009
Thanks for typing this out and saving me the time. Cameron would be a very solid piece for us.
Smoltz's Beard - December 8, 2009
Good rebuttal
Solid points, the money has to be right though.
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
the money always has to be right….
thats not a specific claim for MC…. there isnt a player in the world, save Pujols, that i wouldnt consider the contract when thinking about acquiring him.
Swo12bv - December 8, 2009
All I meant by that is don’t overpay what he’s worth. If we get into a bidding war that will surely be the outcome.
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
On that, I agree.
If he wants 2 years/$20 million or something, that’s just too much for us for an outfielder when we still need to get a first baseman, even if we unload Soriano and Lowe without eating much salary.
cavebird - December 8, 2009
Rec'd
You can’t really ignore his defense like gondeee did. A 10+ UZR is fantastic and infinitely better than McLouth (although he was above average this season), and McLouth would be great in left. Cameron was also a little better than a 4 WAR (wins above replacement) player each of the past two seasons and three out of the past four. I don’t really want to go into market values and the value of a win, but we could get him below market price, I would imagine.
acie4mvp - December 8, 2009
Doesn’t bother me either way. Sign him? Cool. Don’t sign him? That’s okay. As long as we do SOMETHING to get more pop out of the everyday lineup. And 25 HR’s is an improvement. But I do believe there are probably better options out there.
Mike Kerns - December 8, 2009
This is a good point. Cameron’s not my first choice, but there are a lot worse guys out there. We didn’t get a lot of production from the outfield last season, so if he’s not too expensive he’s an option. We know that Heyward and Schafer are on their way, so we need someone for the meantime.
John Holton - December 8, 2009
He gives us pop...
and he would be a cheaper option than many other guys. His bat may be boring to you but he would have led our team in HR’s the last couple of years and he has a decent OBP. And as you said he still plays above average defense.
I think the problem is that people are expecting a “savior” to come in a be the sole reason that the Braves are good next season. I don’t think any one person is going to do that. So loogically the next thing you want to do is upgrade in certain areas. He would be a good upgrade over what we had (FUGA). I just don’t see enough downside to be utterly opposed to him.
Fischerking - December 8, 2009
A-FUCKING-MEN
I have been confused by the Cameron band-wagoners since day one.
What is this team full of? Piddling low-tier power hitters with the potential to hit 20 HRs. What is mike Cameron? A piddling low-tier power hitter with the potential to hit 20 HRs
How does this solve a damn thing? A .450 SLG% with 150 Ks and an OBP that hovers around .335? That would be acceptable for a rookie who can get better, but this dude is 38. Why are we even looking at him as an option?
What would everyone be saying when July comes around and ole Cam-ron is hitting .244 with 10 HR and 80 Ks? He sure wont look so good then…
Think about it.
ATLandUNC - December 8, 2009
You, just like pretty much everyone else who bash the Cameron supporters have neglected to mention a better alternative.
Smoltz's Beard - December 8, 2009
We have one internally. Matt Diaz. The only thing Cameron has on him is defense.
But I don’t see where the bat absolutely has to come from the OF anyway, with Schafer and Heyward in the wings. I would rather get get a big bat at 1B or 2B and move Prado over.
ATLandUNC - December 8, 2009
That’s like saying the only thing a Porsche has on a Toyota is its faster.
Yakker - December 8, 2009
ur selling Diaz short calling him a Toyota, but the analogy is proper.. and wonderful
Swo12bv - December 8, 2009
Thanks
I started with Maserati/Hyundai, so Porsche/Toyota was a little more fair… ;-)
Yakker - December 8, 2009
fair enough….
Swo12bv - December 8, 2009
If Diaz could just tame the high stuff….
He was on his way to doing so. Keep up the good work, Matty.
Chief Noc-A-Homa - December 8, 2009
Who are you kidding
A Porche? Cameron in no way is analogous to a Porche.
Analogy should be a Nssan Pathfinder to a Pontiac Aztec.
Neither is particularly coveted, but if you have an Aztec a pathfinder sounds kind of nice.
Of course that would be disregarding Diaz’s superior OBP and OPS last year. Is Cameron’s defensive upgrade worth that? For under 4 mill yeah, over 4, probably not.
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
But Aztecs are hideously ugly…Diaz is dreamy.
alligatorimpersonator - December 8, 2009
That reference was meant for his routes on fly balls.
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
Indeed.
Sometimes Diaz takes routes to fly balls that are equivalent to the routes that the little kids in the outfield take at the Home Run Derby.
alligatorimpersonator - December 8, 2009
And when your walking down the road in the rain with no car at all, an Aztec sounds exquisite
bravesguy311 - December 8, 2009
+1
nick9314 - December 8, 2009
Ha, exactly. Well done sir.
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
Foget the cars, then
And focus on the basic point, which is that saying Matt Diaz is Cameron’s equal except for the defense is like saying that Geena Davis is Megan Fox’s equal except that she’s older.
Mike Cameron is a severely underrated 4 WAR player who can play CF. Matt Diaz is a 2 WAR player who cannot. Miie Cameron will consistently wOBA 350. Diaz hit a high water mark last year with his 384 wOBA, but he’s probably more like a 365. There’s really no comparison at all.
Sheesh. You see what you’ve done? You’ve got me talking about Mike Cameron. Fuck. At least I got in a Megan Fox reference.
Yakker - December 8, 2009
but Megan Fox is batshit crazy
ok now im just messing with you
Swo12bv - December 8, 2009
You say that like it's a bad thing ;-)
Yakker - December 8, 2009
Diaz, McLouth, and who else?
Smoltz's Beard - December 8, 2009
Hopefully by July...
Diaz/McLouth/Heyward are all 3 better options. And then there’s Schafer. Cameron is good, but between those first 3, and maybe even Schafer as well, I don’t think hitting .250 with 20 HRs is more than they can provide. In fact, I’d expect at least that if not better.
Mr. Sanchez - December 8, 2009
Cameron>McLouth>Diaz
Heyward is still an unknown at this point.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
This. The fact that people are throwing Schafer in the OF picture is mind bottling. I’d rather have 3 proven guys with Heyward and Schafer waiting to come up due to injury, ineffectiveness, etc.
Smoltz's Beard - December 8, 2009
HAHA!
+1
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
But you have to pay these guys anyway...
with injury, ineffectiveness, what have you. None of us know what the FO plans for Heyward or Schafer, let alone both. One up on opening day and the other when the time is right, or both start in Gwinnett, or both start opening day in Ted, or what. Without that, we have no idea if Cameron makes sense or not, because for a guy who will be in demand, either 2 years or a nice chunk of change will need to be committed to him, and we are looking at a limited budget. So say you need to commit 2 years, now you have 5 OFs for 4 spots at some point in the near future.
Yeah, he’s a good player, and would be nice here, IF we can move a few other pieces around. Right now, unless we plan on at least one of JH or JS spending the entire year in Gwinnett, which I personally doubt, we have absolutely no place to play Cameron or if we do, would need to move a current player.
Mr. Sanchez - December 8, 2009
I would not be surprised at all to see JS spend all of 2010 in AAA.
Also, I don’t think anyone is advocating a 2 year deal for Cameron. If he can be had for 1 year for $8M-ish, it should be a no-brainer.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
Cameron just might be advocating a 2 yr deal...
and just might get it with enough interest.
And while you might think JS should spend all year in AAA, he started opening day for us last year and I don’t think the front office has regressed their opinion of him that much. I could just as easily see him spending all year in Atlanta playing CF with McLouth in LF and Diaz in RF as I could see him spending all year in Gwinnett. But that’s me.
Mr. Sanchez - December 8, 2009
He just had surgery. To my knowledge, he isn’t even throwing a baseball right now. It is a pretty big leap to have him MLB ready by July, let alone producing at a rate better than Nate, Cameron or Diaz.
Heyward is more likely to be up before Schafer, and once that happens, there is no need to bring Schafer up until 2011.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
I’m going with the assumption that Lowe and Soriano will be traded, along with possibly someone like KJ as well, for a 1B that isn’t overpriced to the point where we couldn’t fit Cameron in the budget. In my perfect world we would break camp with Cameron, McLouth, and Diaz as a starting outfield. Depending on how either of them do Schafer or Heyward could break camp as part of a Diaz platoon situation.
Just how I’m running through it in my mind, obviously is probably going to be pretty far off from what actually happens.
Smoltz's Beard - December 8, 2009
Heyward won't play in a platoon.
That makes no sense. He will play every day either in Gwinnett or Atlanta. When we decide he is ready we move an OF, whichever one makes the most sense. It is a tricky situation. If there was a big expensive 1B bat available, you probably go that direction and hope for the best with Heyward. But there isn’t. So you go both directions and either send Heyward down at the start of the year or move an OF.
cavebird - December 8, 2009
Seeing as how I didn’t say it was a stone cold lock Heyward would be in a platoon, your response is entirely unnecessary. Thanks though.
Smoltz's Beard - December 8, 2009
You suggested it as a possibility.
It isn’t. That was my only point. And you’re welcome. ;) (FWIW, I still love the idea of signing Cameron.)
cavebird - December 8, 2009
Or let Diaz become utility man...
giving a day off each week to each of McLouth, Heyward, Cameron, and at 1B.
Mr. Sanchez - December 9, 2009
Can Diaz play 1B?
He played 2.2 Innings there in 2007 (presumably after double switches and the like) but not any other time in the majors. Given that his OF defense isn’t particularly good, I think teaching him to play 1B as well may help.
cavebird - December 9, 2009
He has before,...
so I’d say yes, he is capable of playing 1B. Now if you mean play it well, I have no clue.
Mr. Sanchez - December 9, 2009
Well put...
You built on my thoughts nicely. Cameron’s one of those guys who puts up decent looking season stats, but in the middle of the year when he’s at .244, 10, and 80 Ks, you just want to shoot him to get him out of the lineup.
gondeee - December 8, 2009
Except of course
that it completely neglects the significant defensive value he provides. A run saved on defense is just as valuable as a run earned offensively, so his “lack of power” is more than made up for by his amazing defense. If we give up fewer runs we don’t need to score more runs to do better. That is the fundamental argument in favor of Mike Cameron.
Perrinbar - December 8, 2009
Few people defense makes up for their lack of power, much less Cameron’s.
At SS you can get away with that, not in the OF
ATLandUNC - December 8, 2009
Lol…you act like he only hits 6 or 7 HRs a year…you are talking about one of the best defensive CFers in the game who also hits 25 HRs year in and year out.
Your argument makes 0 sense.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
Over his last 3 season he has averaged 23 HR per year.
All it would take is the slightest regression or down year (which is likely at his age) and we are looking at a 17-19 HR hitter with little speed and mediocre OBP.
Tell me, how does even a good year of 25 HR (which he hasnt reached since 2002) solve the teams need for a cleanup hitter?
ATLandUNC - December 8, 2009
soo...
the slightest regression – and you said slightest – results in little speed and mediocre OBP? He may lose a little speed, but he won’t be reduced to little speed. Plus, OBP has a lot to do with plate discipline – not something that gets worse with age, typically. Plus, Cameron is showing no signs of regressing. If the Braves got him, I’d guess it’d be a 2 year deal max. He is not going to fall apart in that short amount of time.
And no one is suggesting Cameron be our cleanup hitter.
alligatorimpersonator - December 8, 2009
Read the fangraphs article I posted below.
Nobody is saying Cameron is our power solution or our cleanup hitter. Nobody.
What we are saying is that he would help this team out tremendously.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
The teams “need” for a cleanup hitter is a misguided way of looking at things. They need someone who provides an equivalent number of runs with their defense and bat as a clean up hitter normally does with their bat. So, get a decent hitting fantastic fielding center fielder and all of a sudden it’s the same value as a clean-up hitter. Unfortunately I don’t believe the Braves FO operates on this wavelength, they just want a bat regardless of their defensive value. And yes, if we found a slick fielder with a big bat it would be better, but labeling someone a “clean up hitter” and saying that is more valuable because you said so shows an utter disregard for reality. Runs are runs are runs. Period.
Perrinbar - December 8, 2009
Besides all that, wouldn’t the SLIGHTEST regression mean that he hits 22 HRs?
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
What?
Cameron had 30 in 04 and 25 in 08 to go along with 24 last year?
Lennox - December 8, 2009
Not to mention the 25 in ’08 were in only 120 games.
Smoltz's Beard - December 8, 2009
Over the past 4 seasons, he has put up this line:
.251 .340 .459 .799
He has hit 92 HRs and 124 Doubles, half of this coming in the Pitcher’s Paradise of San Diego.
He has not shown any regression in his slash stats over the past 4 seasons, so there is no reason to think that he would regress magically this year. In fact, over the past 4 seasons, I would argue that he has IMPROVED his slash stats more so than regressed in them.
He has hit 25 or more HRs twice since 2002, and hit 24 just last season.
Please, state your next argument, because your current one is total bogus.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
Who do you prefer?
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
After watching the year-and-a-half long well-below replacement level production from Francouer only to see Bobby Cox run him out there every day during the midst of pennant races, I’m covinced the front office is taking too leinient of a stance with regards to Bobby’s autonomy in selecting line-ups.
During the stretch run, when Church was healthy, Bobby would routinely stick Garret Anderson’s worthless bat in the 5th spot and worthless glove in LF, with LaRoche hitting 7th and Church on the bench. Bobby’s a nice guy and everything, but nice don’t win baseball games, and Church should’ve been in the line-up. Not only would this have given the Braves a better chance to win in 2009, it would’ve increased interest in Church on the trade market. Now, they’re probably looking at getting nothing for him.
The team sacrificed wins by playing Garred Anderson over Church and sacrificed value by DFA’ing a valuable commodity.
In 2009 spring training, the Braves were able to trade Josh Anderson for Rudy Darrow. Rudy Darrow sucks, but he’s still young and all and he costs nothing. The Braves are probably going to get nothing, and would take Rudy Darrow straight up for Ryan Church at this point. Ryan Church is a better player on a more valuable contract than Josh Anderson.
This is a sign that things were handled poorly. It would’ve made more sense if the team gained anything on the field by playing Garret over Church, but they actually lost sometihg on the field.
Overall a piss-poorly handled situation by a manager who is admittedly past his prime and a front office that wouldn’t man up and tell him he’s wrong.
Blame whoever you want. Though keep in mind, it was the organization’s decision to keep Bobby Cox around. In my opinion, they should’ve anticipated his limitations and investigated ways to off-set them.
PWHjort - December 8, 2009
Who would you have bumped off the 40-man instead?
Yakker - December 8, 2009
Is Valdez or Jones still on it?
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
Todd Redmond, Stephen Marek, or James Parr
PWHjort - December 8, 2009
MAREK MAREK MAREK!
The guy can’t keep his ERA under 5 at AA or AAA. If someone wants that space filler we got as half the return for a top 5 1B in the game, have at it.
I guess Church was going anyway, but why the hell is Marek on there? I’d assume he’s next to go if we need a space.
Mr. Sanchez - December 8, 2009
Wow. Forgot Marek was on the 40 man. Glad I saw that before writing a Rule 5 preview…
cbwilk - December 8, 2009
deva vu
bravesguy311 - December 8, 2009
for what's its worth
I think there are two ways to construct our offense for 2010.
1) sign MC (or a similar player) and sign LaRoche/Johnson/GLaus
that would give us two 20 -25 HR potential guys (admittedly Johnson isnt a 20HR guy but he has value elsewhere).
2) or we find a way to get an absolute masher, AGon or Fielder come to mind. and then leave the OF alone (although i would like to hang on to Church, but it doesn’t look like that is gonna happen). that would give us 35-40 HR potential maybe more
Honestly Id prefer the first option, bc it only costs money, whereas the second option costs considerable money and even more in terms of talent. But Id be happy with either…
the talk that MC wouldnt help this team is absolutely ridiculous, he is a plus defender and has decent power and gets on base at a decent clip. So long as we are paying him in the 6-8M neighborhood i would think its a decent deal. just look at what PWHjort or cavebird said above.
Swo12bv - December 8, 2009
this
More solid players > one great player
One great player could get injured, have a bad year, etc. Plus, we would have to give up a lot to get that one great player. With more not as good, but still solid players, we take away the risk in putting too much hope in one player, and we don’t have to give up as much to get them.
alligatorimpersonator - December 8, 2009
From Fangraphs
They did a good article on this very discussion and compared Cameron to Bay and Holliday…you may be surprised at the results:
I gotta say, after reading that, if you still think Cameron is a bad idea, you just are being willfully ignorant.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
Great article
alligatorimpersonator - December 8, 2009
This
is what I’m saying. If he provides runs with his glove, they are just as good as those with his bat. Of course, as I said above, I don’t think the Braves operate on that principal, unfortunately.
Perrinbar - December 8, 2009
Fine then, you win...
now who do you give up, because come July, we’ve got an OF without him and someone will become useless between him, McLouth, and Diaz.
Mr. Sanchez - December 8, 2009
There is this thing in July called the trade deadline that would solve this little “problem” for us.
To me, Diaz becomes expendable at this point. With McLouth locked up for a few more years and Schafer and Heyward supposedly ready at this point, Diaz’s days are numbered anyway.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
I think Diaz would be an attractive
DH option for an AL team
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
At which point you are getting pennies on the dollar...
from teams knowing you are desperate to shed dead weight.
Mr. Sanchez - December 8, 2009
Or we keep him on the bench as a PH and move someone like Infante or KJ/Prado at that point. The possibilities are endless.
Besides, worrying about having to make room on your roster for one or two rookies is putting the cart before the horse. Cross that bridge when you come to it, but you can’t cross it if it isn’t even on your route.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
Well put.
Smoltz's Beard - December 8, 2009
I don’t understand why having a great outfield at the start of the year is such a problem. If the outfield is going great then there’s no reason to bring Heyward up just cause it’s June. Playing in AAA for most of the year won’t hurt him, especially if it’s not hurting the Major League team.
cbwilk - December 8, 2009
I just don't see Heyward down all year...
as I’ve said before, working a starter into your roster mid year is much easier than a position player. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Heyward in RF on opening day.
Mr. Sanchez - December 9, 2009
If Heyward is our Opening Day RF, we’d better have Prince Fielder on 1B.
justincredubil02 - December 9, 2009
You didn’t really address my question…
cbwilk - December 9, 2009
I didn't see a question in there unless you are asking
why is a great OF at the start of the year a problem? It isn’t. Paying them may be depending on the salary limitations of the club, but having an excellent OF on opening day would be a good thing.
Mr. Sanchez - December 9, 2009
Right. So why not try to get one and not worry about “blocking” Heyward? The kid is 20.
cbwilk - December 9, 2009
Again, ...
are we certain Heyward isn’t part of the opening day plans? He can just as easily be part of a “great OF” as Cameron.
Mr. Sanchez - December 9, 2009
He could be.
But Cameron is safer. Having four starting outfielders isn’t a problem, we can always deal one. Obviously, however, we don’t sign Cameron or any other outfielder at the expense of getting a lesser 1B—-we need that far more than an OF.
cavebird - December 9, 2009
I’m very certain.
cbwilk - December 10, 2009
He could also just as easily be a big rookie bust and not hit 50 HRs with a .400 BA and 200 SBs like everyone is expecting him to do.
justincredubil02 - December 10, 2009
Where are you getting those numbers?...
would .280, with say 18 HRs and solid slash stats be acceptable/reasonable? It’s certainly a HUGE upgrade over Anderson.
Mr. Sanchez - December 10, 2009
This for posting. Cements my interest in Cameron 100% now.
Smoltz's Beard - December 8, 2009
Fixed.
Smoltz's Beard - December 8, 2009
Dude
“Bottling” and now “this” instead of “thanks”? You really are outta practice, aren’t you…
scstrato - December 8, 2009
Careful, you’ll run him off again…
Yakker - December 8, 2009
Haha, bottling is a joke…pretty sure it’s from some Will Ferrell movie. But yeah, not sure how “this” is even close to “thanks”.
Smoltz's Beard - December 8, 2009
“You know, what happens when your thoughts get all trapped up like in a bottle.”
Swo12bv - December 8, 2009
It’s from Blades of Glory.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
uhm
Dodgeball I believe
bravesguy311 - December 9, 2009
Nope, your right
-1 for me
bravesguy311 - December 9, 2009
I can tell you exactly when he says it in the movie – right when they get to the world championships and are standing at the check-in table.
justincredubil02 - December 9, 2009
will ferrell wasn’t even in dodgeball.
justincredubil02 - December 9, 2009
Thought it was a Ben Stiller line, my mistake, I will fess up
bravesguy311 - December 9, 2009
In other news, Peter Gammons is leaving ESPN, according to mlbtraderumors.com.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
This^
That’s the best news I’ve heard all off-season! Love me some PG.
scstrato - December 8, 2009
Also according to MLBtraderumors.com:
Apparently, there is at least a market for D Lowe and he won’t be dead weight.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
I saw this too
Never sure where to put these things with all these winter rumors flying around.
This was good news and really, why would the Braves spread some Hot Air and try to drum up some manufactured interest in Lowe? I think everyone knows we will take pretty much anything for him because of our situation.
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
And based on the availability of good SP on the market, I’d say that teams are going to be willing to pay a reasonable asking price for him.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
We all should rejoice with this news
Wonder how soon we’ll pull the trigger so I can sleep through the night, finally.
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
lol…i have had mlbtr refreshing on my BB all day, and (obviously) I have been here all day too…I need the winter meetings to end SOON!
I got 4 hours of sleep last night because of this.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
BillShanks’ Twitterfeed:
“Wren said the bat could come from free agency, moreso than a trade. Could Soriano & a starter be moved in the same deal? Wren said yes”
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
Damn…that would be a HUGE deal: Soriano and Lowe/Vaz???
That would have to be a 3 team deal then. No way 1 team can take on $23M in salary on 2 pitchers.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
Yankees can take anything.
Not that we’re trading with them.
ChrisK562 - December 8, 2009
What do they have left to give in return? Cabrera? Barf!
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
Yankees are "cutting payroll" according to mlbtr
Doubt they’ll pony up the dough for Lowe.
Doesn’t it make you want to punch a small animal when you hear a team is cutting their payroll DOWN to 185mill?
Cracker! - December 8, 2009
that is nearly a $20M cut too!
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
besides, with Joba and Mariano, I don’t think they are in the market for a late inning BP arm.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
Joba is still a starter as far as ive heard
Swo12bv - December 8, 2009
Really? I thought they were smarter than that.
justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009
The Orioles could.
They have a ton of money available this year, need pitching to complement the kids coming up, and have a not particularly attractive crop of free agents to choose from. Assuming we kick in about $3 million, that is a total of $20 million, which would leave them enough to sign a 1B which they need. They shed a ton of bad contracts this offseason. I read somewhere that Wren said someone is interested in both, I think it has to be the Orioles.
cavebird - December 8, 2009
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