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Talking Chop

Braves' Kelly Johnson in High Demand

The Winter Meetings are most definitely under way. We've already had our first crazy rumor that lasted less than half a day before another team acquired the player in question. Bobby Cox held a press conference at 2pm today, and despite my hopes they did not show it on-line on the MLB channel. Luckily Bill Shanks is there and knows the value of live-tweeting such an event. Among his updates this one stands out:

Cox: clubs knocking on the door for Kelly Johnson

Bobby doesn't usually give up much in the way of trade or free agent info, so for him to say that must mean that regardless of what he says there's still tons of value on KJ. Suddenly the Braves have a ton of tradeable pieces. Here are some other highlights from Shanks' tweeting of the Cox presser:

Cox: we'll give Heywatd a chance

Cox: Braves not in on Bay

Cox: Wags the closer "no matter what"

Cox: Martin Prado could play anywhere

Some of that is very Bobby Coxian, in that it's just simple praise of his players, like the quotes about Martin Prado and Jason Heyward. Of course Billy Wagner will be the closer, he's the veteran and is a much better closer than Soriano or Saito. The price for Jason Bay seems to be going upwards quickly, so I can see why the Braves took themselves out of the running for him early on.

It was mentioned earlier, but until Rafael Soriano makes his decision, the Braves probably won't make any moves. So while there will still be rumors today, don't expect any moves. Soriano's agents arrived this morning and are expected to meet with all interested parties before conferring with Rafael about whether or not to accept arbitration. My guess is that they will receive enough interest to recommend he reject arbitration.

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Comments

As much as I like KJ, I’m okay with them trading him away to help shore up a weakness we have (1B/OF).

No surprise here

KJ is a hot commodity.

Rosterbation alert: Maybe we can package him with Lowe and get Lowe’s salary off the books. My hope is Arizona with us swinging Conor Jackson.

Id like conor jackson, but if we get him then we would really need to get a clean up hitter, does conor bat rh or lh?

A ton of "true" clean-up hitters just aren't available.

I don’t know of any that are being readily shopped that could fit in our budget even moving Lowe’s salary.

he bats RH and can play 1st of LF

not the answer, but may be worth the gamble if he can turn his career around.

This, assuming by “play” you meant very barely passably cover defensively.

Obviously, he is not a defensive stud. But his UZR in LF (albeit only with a sample size of 103 games) is -0.3 compared to -8.8 at 1b. So yes, he can “barely passably cover defensively” at 1b, but I’d give him slightly more credit as a LFer. Care to guess what McClouth’s UZR is before looking it up?

Jackson’s UZRs in left and at first are -.5 and -4.0, respectively. Not sure where you got your numbers from. What’s his contract like?

oops

Used uzr and not uzr/150 from fangraphs.

From mlbtraderumors: Byrnes has until the December 12th non-tender deadline to decide on Jackson, who must be paid at least $2.44MM if tendered a contract.

K,inda funny that you proclaim your like of Conor Jackson, but don’t know whether he bats RH or LH.

Well I never really watched that many dback games to know, but one of my best friends is a dbacks fan so I know about him and his ability to hit around 300 and hit 15 hrs, that’s a good #6 hitter but for a number 4 hitter on our team for the mean time we need at least 25 hrs

Everybody isn’t as smart as you Dave…

I wonder if Bobby isn't just puffing here.

I hope KJ is a valuable commodity, and I can see why some teams would be interested. On the other hand, I can see this as an attempt to get some offers coming in so we don’t have to non-tender him next week, too.

No one can deny that KJ has shown flashes of being a very good player.

He has gone on a few really good streaks in his career. He has shown that the talent is there if he could develop some conistancy. So I doubt Bobby is just trying to build interest.

I think it’s funny that a lot of people (not saying you cavebird) bring up names of players on other teams that are in the same exact situation as KJ that we could get as cheap 1B or OF options, but they want KJ gone.

And for the record...

…I have no problem with KJ. The question, as always, is the price. But since he can play 2B, LF, and 1B (I think), he is a useful bench guy if not a starter.

I agree

My point is mostly that I think some people want to bring in other guys that have had flashes of potential, but they gave up on KJ a long time ago. He has as much chance of putting up a solid season as most of the other options being thrown around.

Price tag is a different story. He may have outpriced himself as far as his role on the team. So now the question becomes would it be better to be able to trade him for a proven commodity with less upside or a guy in the same position on another team?

KJ has shown more than flashes

He has 2 very good offensive years, and another good half season this year (although no one around here seems to notice). It just gets blinded by his poor first half.

Someone here noticed…

:)

the 2d half of 09 season was a flash or maybe several flashes given the limited number of plate appearances.

in a way, so was the first half of 09…at least, when in the context of his career.

That doesn’t count

I know. I forgot about that. Only Prado’s good streaks and KJ’s bad streaks count.

How could I forget the rules around here?

No no trust me…Prado is our spark plug. When Kelly’s in, the team’s just like “Ahhh shit”

No, they’re not. Kelly’s got a lot to offer as well. Prado was just unstoppable for a while there last season.

But when Prado, Infante, and Yunel are all in, healthy,…….look out.

he was joking…i think…

The internet needs a “joking/sarcastic” font. That really would clear up most of the confusion.

Stupid internet

pardon the political humor it is in good taste i feel

Stupid internet

DAMN YOU AL GORE

super cereal.

Everyone’s super stoked on me, even if they don’t know it. Excelsior!

haha sorry yeah I was joking

he pretty much played every day in the 1st half, and only rarely in the 2d. seems like a legitimate distinction to me.

yeah but that 1st half is just a little in proportion to his career

Yes, I know.
I like Kelly alot. Always have.

Ok, so we have the following:

1 Bad Half, which counts
1 Good Half, which somehow doesn’t.
2 Good Years, which may or may not count.

According to my calculations, we have a pretty darn good player on our hands

Pujols help us all if Bill Shanks is our main pipeline inside the Winter meetings.

today was my introduction to Mr. Shanks

short, borderline literate tweets…better than nothing I suppose

My thoughts too, but he has done a nice job today. DOB and Bowman are starting to chime in. As someone who has been around them, Shanks doesn’t take many notes and relies on his recorder a lot (like I do), whereas the other two are like traditional journalists in that they try and scribble everything down. The former’s style lends itself to being able to tweet while the presser is going on.

In my time as a journalist...

I couldn’t scribble notes for a damn. I can’t write that fast, or listen well while I write.

Ship his fuc—n bi—- ass, he sucks. PRADO AND INFANTE BABY LEAD THE WAY!!!

Kelly doesn’t suck. I would love to have Kelly as my starting 2nd baseman, if I was managing a club.

Please

do not talk any more.

Yeah, lets start the utility infielder Omar Infante who fell straight back to earth like a rock after he came off the DL this summer. That’s gonna work spectacularly, if you want to be a 3rd place team again.

Cue justincredubil rant in 3…2…1…

lol…I was in a 8 hour meeting today, so I haven’t seen any of this until now…The moment has passed, so I will just ignore fizzbot and is idiotic, moronic, ridiculous statements.

I wondered what was keeping you, you seem to respond to pretty well everything around here within the hour. I hope you got some quality doodling done in those 8 hours.

If anyone thinks Kelly Johnson sucks, I worry about them.

However, I also worry about someone who thinks KJ should be handed the 2nd base job in 2010. IMO, it’s Prado’s job to lose. He really did spark the team last year.

Prado didn’t spark shit. Getting rid of Jeff Francoeur and bringing up Tommy Hanson to lock down the 5th rotation spot (from which we had like 2 wins previously) is what sparked this team.

Yes, Prado’s bat helped a bunch during his incredible streak where his BABIP was like .400 or more, but to credit him with turning this team around is just ludicrus. What about that stretch of games (that was equal to KJs) where he sucked? Where was the spark then?

KJ and Prado (If KJ isn’t traded) should have a battle royal during ST for 2B, and may the best man win.

so you’re saying that in Spring Training, if KJ hits .300 and Prado hits .275, KJ gets the job?

That shit better not happen. Thats stupid.

No, I am saying that whichever player plays the best (not hits for the highest avg) in ST should get the job.

When you put it the way you did, Prado go the job based on roughly the same number of good ABs as someone would get in ST…just sayin.

I know

but what im asking is that if KJ has a line of .300/.350/.450 in absolutely meaningless Spring Training games and Prado only has a line of .280/.330/.420, then KJ should be our starting 2B?

Im not trying to be a smart ass…just tryin to see your stance

In that case, yes. Why? Because for them, ST is not meaningless. Their jobs are on the line.

Given that variable (Job on the line) my money is on KJ. Also, past seasons and overall ability come to mind, but I’ll leave that part of the discussion alone…that debate has been had ad nauseum.

see, my money is on Prado

he seems like more of a natural competitor than KJ does. KJ always seems to have a “deer in the headlights” look on his face. That’s not to say KJ doesn’t care and isn’t a competitor, but Marteeny Weeny seems to have a little more fire to him.

lol, it’s Martini’s war-paint that adds his extra fire. They both have “the fire.” But if one had to start….

Prado.

Mar-teeny-Weenie

I don’t think he would appreciate that nick-name.

Just drop the “weenie” and have a bunch of chicks dressed like Martini glasses in left field. Martin’s Martinis. Maybe have a drink special.

(…..if we ever had any group of chicks out in left field. ha)

but that would require people to go to Turner Field…we all know that doesnt happen!

Yeah, I'm never there. Neither is royhobbs. Or 10-4.

Or Sandy, or Andy, William, Ici, Hazel, or…shit, this could go on forever if I name everyone I see, oops, don’t see there on a regular basis.
But I get it – we don’t matter to you. Our stories, our photos…yep, all made up – we were never there.

I was there in 2008. It was awesome. I also went to Disney once this spring. So nyah to you.

I got 3 (000) words for you mister:

i live in fucking arizona. if you’d like to fly me out there, i’d be glad to go

Dude, you’re the one bitching about attendance, not me.

Yeah, I wish my life was different, and I could not only buy a decent ticket for myself (much less season tickets), I wish I could take everybody to the games. I wish I didn’t have to miss games because I take off every other weekend to drive 300 miles to take care of my 90 yr old g-rents. I wish I didn’t have to park in the ghetto free parking and walk back to the car by myself in the dark; I wish I didn’t have to use sick and vacation days to get off early to go to BP to take pics. But I do, because I love baseball and I love this team. All I’m saying is show some support for the fans who are showing up when they’re physically and financially able and bitch less about the ones who don’t.

disney every year
4 games every year

6 hour drive to Atlanta
1 hour to disney

went to spring training games in tampa, dunedin, clearwater, and lakeland FL last year to watch spring training games vs. braves. Got heyward, hanson, freeman, jj, escobar, mccann, halladay, rios, r. howard, werth, hamels, edwin jackson, granderson, and mariano’s autographs!!!!!! Awesome year!!!!!!!

You think Turner Field is bad?

You can hear a flea fart from one side of Tropicana Field to the other, and that’s for a team that was in the World Series last year.

That is one thing about Prado that I do appreciate. He’s a dirt dawg all the way. He also is the better value, still pre-arbitration. That being said, Kelly still has upside athletically, even from his peak in 2007. I think his defense is going to continue to improve and if the offensive player that he was in the 2nd half this year and most of 2007 and 2008 returns, he will be a valuable trade commodity. I say if Kelly plays well in ST, start him and give him a chance to re-establish his value while getting Prado at least 4 starts a week between 2B, 1B, 3B, and LF.

Prado helped with the spark. He was cleaning up while everyone else slumped.

I don’t know about “he WAS the spark”

you're right

he wasn’t “the” spark, but he certainly helped, unlike KJ.

But KJ has helped before, which is the part that most Prado supporters completely forget about. KJ was a top 3 offensive NL 2-bagger in 2008. He had a stretch of about 150 bad ABs (which he also had an injury during) and people think he should lose his job and get non-tendered, etc…it is just lunacy.

Sure.

But you don’t have to worry about those people making any serious decisions, though. Just “condom, or no condom.”

“Do you ever have trouble putting on a condiment? I know I do!”

An email I received earlier this week:
I recall my first time with a condom, I was 16 or so.

I went in to buy a packet of condoms at the corner pharmacy.
There was this beautiful woman assistant behind the counter,
and she could see that I was new at it.

She handed me the package and asked if I knew how to wear one.

I honestly answered, ‘No, this is my first time.’ So she
unwrapped the package, took one out and slipped it over her
thumb. She cautioned me to make sure it was on tight and
secure. I apparently still looked confused. So she looked
all around the store to see if it was empty. It was empty.

‘Just a minute,’ she said, and walked to the door, and locked
it.

Taking my hand, she led me into the back room, unbuttoned her
blouse and removed it. She unhooked her bra and laid it aside.
‘Do these excite you?’ She asked. Well, I was so dumb-struck
that all I could do was nod my head. She then said it was time
to slip the condom on.

As I was slipping it on, she dropped her skirt, removed her
panties and lay down on a desk. ‘Well, come on’, she said,
‘We don’t have much time.’

So I climbed on her. It was so wonderful, that unfortunately,
I could no longer hold back and KAPOW, I was done within a few
minutes.

She looked at me with a bit of a frown. ‘Did you put that
condom on?’ she asked.

I said, ‘I sure did,’ and held up my thumb to show her.

She fainted.
lmao

If I had posted that joke, this entire thread would have been deleted by 7:45.

“lol”

Good stuff.

lol.borat.thumbsup Pictures, Images and Photos

Great success, justincredubil02

Just watched Bruno this past weekend. Good lord…

it was stupid huh?

I mean, it was okay but nowhere near as funny as Borat. So over the top though.

wow. would you like a side of epic with that story?

I actually got a chance to fill out my 2010 Atlanta Braves 25-man roster:

1B – LaRoche
2B – Prado/KJ
3B – Chipper
SS – Yunel
LF – McLouth
CF – Cameron
RF – Diaz

Bench – Church
Bench – KJ/Prado
Bench – Ross
Bench – Infante
Bench – Other F/A signing

SP – Vaz, JJ, Huddy, Hanson, KK

BP – Moylan, Medlen, Saito, Wagner, EOF, Logan, Acosta/Valdez

Seems legit to me, and within budget, right?

possible...

personally I think LaRoche is gone, and the 1B comes from Lowe or Vasquez.

no Acosta

and im good.

And Mike Cameron…YAY!

I think that puts us somewhere in the $95-$100M range, off the top of my head.

I don’t have time to look up all the contracts right now, but a rough estimation (with arb. raises included) puts us right there I think.

You have posted EXACTLY what I want our team to look like this year.

Heyward? He needs a new challenge

June. That way, we can use Church/Diaz as trade bait in July (or even KJ or Prado at that point) to fill any perceived/anticipated holes for the stretch run.

I’d prefer to non-tender Church. If we are going to give Church 4M in arbitration, why not spend a little more and sign Rick Ankiel, whose a powerful LH caddy to Matty D in LF?

I agree on Kelly being a decent trade chip if he can return to his former offensive form. He could have real value next summer.

I don’t feel as strongly about Church as I do KJ, but I don’t see how Ankiel would be a better option. Church has good D and a cannon of an arm with a really good OBP.

Ankiel doesn’t tickle my pickle at all.

Good to see you’ve been carrying the KJ banner since I’ve been gone.

So are you back now?

Eh…I guess so. Seems about as good a time as any, and work’s been slow lately.

dude, it is like me and literally one or two other people. Everyone else is infatuated with Prado’s July.

I’m with you guys in spirit, I just don’t vocalize it as much. Guess it feels like a lost cause almost. But I’ll take KJ everyday of the week and twice on Sunday.

Here’s how I look at it. Other teams are really interested in KJ – even though he will cost at least $3M more than Prado…hmmmm….WHY?

Because they’re smarter than Bobby?

See, I don’t really know if I blame Bobby. Prado was undeniably the hot hand last season. KJ was also injured, don’t forget. But, if you remember back over the past couple of years, Bobby has been pretty stubborn in sticking with KJ – even all the way back to his rookie year when he started like 0-200 million or something like that.

Prado had a spectacular July, but that’s it. It screams flash in the pan/failure to continue to adjust to pitching when he got regular playing time. Kelly is more proven, bad streaks or not.

In Prado’s defense (See, I can be objective in this!) his Sept was pretty good too.

It was mid-July – mid-late August where he was stone cold.

I absolutely agree that KJ is the more proven player, and he has proven that he can put up an entire season of good numbers. Prado has yet to do that.

I don’t dislike Prado at all, I really don’t. What I dislike is the blind followership he gets mainly from the anti-KJ crowd who obviously know nothing of which they speak – IE, fizzbot.

I don’t dislike Prado either. The fact that he puts up a July like that while Kelly is hurt is great, because we still need that bench guy. But there’s no way he’s earned the right to oust Kelly for the starting job yet. I like him as a role player, I do NOT like him as a starting second baseman.

Prado from 25 July – 15 Sept (39 games, 166 PAs, 154 ABs)

.227 .253 .312 .565
3 HR, 2 Doubles, 5BB, 25Ks

Kelly Johnson from 18 April – 2 July (58 games, 220 PAs, 197 ABs)

.203 .272 .310 .582
2 HR, 13 Doubles, 1 Triple, 17BB, 33Ks

But nobody ever talks about this…except me of course! :)

Arbitrary endpoints.

I just took both player’s cold streaks. I looked and saw when they played their worst and compared the two. The length is similar as are the number of ABs.

I just simply wanted to point out that Prado struggled just as bad (if not worse) than KJ did, but people blindly ignore that.

i think

the point of the matter is that KJ and Prado are almost similar players. Prado hits for a higher average and a little less power than KJ.

They both have had their streaks this year, however KJ has been a streaky player his entire career. If you look at when Prado was “slumping” thats also the time it was reported to be a lot of problems with his family and him dealing with stress related headaches. I dont know how much this affected him but it seemed to do enough to him to cause him to slump for about a month.

Bottom line is for similar production the Front Office wouldnt mind dealing KJ because he is about 2+mil more expensive and for a non-yankees team we cant afford to have a whole bench of players that cost 3-4 mil.

I get that, I really do. If Prado really is what he has shown flashes of, I think it is a no-brainer.

But, we don’t know that yet.

Also, if you look at KJs numbers when he slumped this year, he had a wrist problem that sent him to the DL.

Prado’s mental struggles shouldn’t outweigh KJs physical problems. You can’t justify Prado without excusing KJ.

KJ has a proven track record of streakiness, yet when the dust settles at the end of the year, he is a top 3 NL 2-bagger.

i wasnt excusing it

thats why i pointed out the fact that although they both struggled this year KJ has been streaky for his entire career.

Very true, even going back to his first 100 ABs, he was streaky as hell. He went 1-28 and then hit over .400 for the rest of the month…

It’s very unusual.

SSS alert, but his April and Sept were both very good. Not too mention his June was great as well, but again…only like 70 PAs.

May was awful, and August/September were very pedestrian.

because they think we non-tender him...

and can get him at half that price? I’d like Church too, if he can agree to a cheaper deal than arb is likely to bring him.

I’m on the fence here. Prado I’m not sold on just cause I’m not sure if he can do it again, or if he was truly the hotter version early or colder version late. KJ has had some good seasons, but he’s been very hot/cold throughout his career. Will he have a long hot streak this year, or a long cold streak? I wouldn’t call either one a sure thing, but between them I think one can step up as a top 5/top 3 2B in the NL this year.

KJ=BJ

Good luck next year in 4th grade, dude. It’s a beast.

I don’t get it…wait a second…ohhh, I see what you did there. You took the “K” and replaced it with a “B.” Clever.

Kelly and BJ Upton did have major struggles last season, and they both have put up similar OPS for their career…

Interesting comparison.

Man, and I thought he was equivalating...

…KJ and Bo Jackson. I guess I don’t know diddley.

Wow, that’s pretty dumb. What does Bo Jackson have to do with Kevin Johnson, mayor of Sacramento and former Phoenix Sun? Come on.

You're just being pissy...

…because our -1 fight in the other thread. ;)

LOL.

Well, now I’ve forgotten all about our tete-a-tete and am pissed at our filthy 8th inning man.

On that...

…we can agree. We’ve stepped in it this time; the price for Lowe just went down because everyone knows we have to move him now to sign a 1B. On the other hand, with that rotation and that bullpen, we shouldn’t need to score a ton of runs.

Yup. If there were only some way to keep Soriano, the bullpen would really be pretty solid.

Wait but BJ Upton is like way better than Kelly

you guys don't get it

i think he’s suggesting that we should trade kelly johnson for bj upton. which is simply brilliant. well played sir… well played.

Along those lines

MP=AP

+1 internets

I think that’s the second time today. You sir are on a roll.

Mark Prior=Adrian Peterson. Fair comparison though I assume you mean the Bears’ back up running back

thats be best trick to play in an NFL auction draft… post the bears RB before the vikings and people flip their lids and bet like idiots…. ooo the hilarity….wow im a nerd

HAHAH!!!

I am totally doing that next season!

Adrian Peterson old school style...

…and he was incredible for Georgia Southern—-the breaking 11 tackles on his way to the endzone in a 1-AA playoff was amazing.

LETS GO MARTIN PRAYDO!

Honestly, I’d like to keep KJ around in case my boy Marteeen doesn’t hit again.

That said, I’d definately trade Kelly if it helped bring us a big hitter.

What he said

Just keep Connie (or Brooksie) around starting at day 1 on the bench, and we would be covered.

Oh lord, no.

In his scenario, we would have Infante on the bench as well.

still, Lord, NO!

Conrad has better D than Kelly, from what I’ve seen. The offense will come naturally to the kid after he gets in a groove.

Conrad absolutely does not have better D than KJ, and I really don’t want to bank on the offense magically clicking on his part.

ha. roight. Conrad’s defense always looked solid to me, and he made alot of tough plays in very little time. Kelly had his D moreso than in ’08, but he still needs to work on it.

LOL

Brooks and his .000 average!

And he ended the season for us…asshole.

that was a shitty-ass call….he didn’t go.

i know i know

it was sarcasm lol maybe we really should find a way to mark a sarcastic comment from now on

finish your sentence with “/sarcasm”

but, that isn’t as fun…

/maybe something like, um, this, would be sarcasm/

/the old backslash comes back with a vengeance/

I like boys

/sarcasm

see…it’s just not that great

the question is, do the boys like you back?

well, there was that one time back in the 80s…

…at band camp…

with Richard Simmons

and 14 bottles of vegetable oil

Or just vegetables...

What has been seen

cannot be unseen. My eyes…

Dick Simmons on a bed of lettuce…..oh, joo guys..

- 1000000

for that, KJ sucks. I will never forgive you justin.

Somehow that still seemed higher than Norton’s average.

but not his .400+ OBP

okay, okay… I’ll use “/sarc” next time.

.400+ OBP and 400+ Runners LOB

Sign Junior Spivey and Albert Haynesworth.

Haynesworth got hurt again…Dan Snyder is a talent-finding genius!

I talked to Junior a few months ago at an independent league game

Kind of a weird dude.

I won a graded gem mint Junior Spivey rookie card….I use it as a coaster.

Haha, Junior Spivey…god it’s been forever since I heard that name.

He was supposed to be at an independent league game I went to this year but he didn’t feel like making the road trip so he just stayed home…

Colorado offers a 3 year deal to a reliever…Rafael???

NVM….it was an offer to Street…my bad!

I’m probably going to be lynched for saying this but, Justin, I was thinking you could join me. Why not trade Prado now?

I understand that most of you no longer believe Kelly is deserving of a job, but he was dragged down by an awful BAbip. Generally, this could be a result of a drop in LD%, which would be a red flag, but in 2007, his LD% was only .9% better while his BAbip was .330. This is entirely sustainable for him given his above-average speed. His ISO was actually higher last season than in 2008. And don’t you guys remember the first week or two? He hit some bombs and everyone was, shall I say, on his jock. Furthermore, he is just now entering his prime at 27.

Let me start the Martin paragraph by saying that I have nothing against him. In fact, I was a pretty big fan of him in 2007 and 2008 (not statistically but he seemed like a nice guy) and I still am. Some people seem to think of him as a young guy, but really he is only a year (and a half) younger than Kelly. So I guess I would be biased if I didn’t say that Martin will also be entering the prime of his career soon. However, I worry if Martin will be able to continue to put up these numbers. He has months where he is incredible, but these are fueled by high BAbip numbers. He also has streaks as cold as anyone else. In my mind, and hopefully in yours, this should negate the argument about Kelly’s streaky tendencies.

Martin just seems to be too much of a wild card to me. For example, his HR/FB numbers jumped from 2.8% to 7.6%. Is this improvement or luck? Most likely improvement, but nobody knows for sure. It’s probable that his true skill may lie in between these numbers. At this point, Prado’s trade value has got to be very high, while Kelly’s is awfully low. This seems a lot like last year’s situation with Kelly, coming off of a hot streak to end the year. While I fully expect Kelly to rebound this season, I can honestly say that I have no idea whether Martin will improve or not. And that gap in certainty and uncertainty, dependability vs. risk, seems enough to warrant, in the least, the provocation of thought about trading Martin Prado.

MADNESS!

Do not suggest trading Martin Praydo, or he’ll come at you with warpaint on in the middle of the night and attack you.

Ah but Kelly will protect me with his…ska music?

Because other teams are smarter than us and know he’s not that good.

Dude, I am all about selling high on him. I have mentioned it before (and alluded to it earlier tonight), and think it would be a very smart thing to do.

Shhhhh….don’t bring up the fact that Prado had a streak of ABs nearly as bad as KJ’s this season and just as long….

Kelly Johnson: $2,825,000
Martin Prado: $415,000

All the more reason Prado’s value is high- good season and low pay. I say move him.

Classic “sell high” move.

So, if KJ is so much more expensive, why are other teams asking about him and not Prado???

There’s 2.4 million reasons why the Braves would prefer to keep MP. As for everybody else… KJ is cheap relative to the decent free agent options, he’s young (27), and costs exactly zero draft picks.

I should correct myself a bit: turns out that none of the free agent 2nd basemen have accepted arbitration, so the draft pick thing is out.

But, Prado is even cheaper…so why the interest in only KJ?

Well, I gotta admit: all we really have on that is BCox’s statement. I suppose there might be a bunch of teams asking “How ’bout Prado?” and Wren is saying “how ’bout KJ?” in response. Sounds to me like Cox is openly telling the world that KJ is on the block and MP isn’t for sale…. at least unless Wren gets overwhelmed with something.

This should be enough to overwhelm Wren enough to trade Prado:

GMX: Hey, Frank, it is GM X.

FW: Oh Hey, GM X. How are things?

GMX: Good. Hey, listen uh, I was wondering if you might be interested in trading Martin Prado to us.

FW: What do you have in mind?

GMX: Well, we were thinking about offering you…

FW: Done!

Ok, that is a little facetious of me, but seriously, it should not take an offer of Albert Pujols to get us to get rid of MP.

You’re right, of course… we probably take Pujols for MP. :D

On a slightly more serious note, I’ve been wondering if it would take more than a box of baseballs (either direction!) to get somebody to take Lowe and his salary.

39 minutes to go…

I am getting nervous…

My heart just skipped a beat. Top headline over at MLBTR included the words “Rafael,” “accepts,” and “arbitration,” but it’s Betancourt, not Soriano. At least not yet.

I saw that too

Man, his agent was kidding when he said “down to the last few minutes”

because the Braves aren't looking to trade Prado

Jesus Christ.

I didn’t know he was on the untouchable list…as far as I know, they haven’t said that KJ is on the block either….

no one has brought up Prado's name

KJ’s name has been brought up since last off-season.

seems to me that is exactly what Cox did today.

Cox said teams were asking about KJ, he didn’t say that he told teams KJ was available.

clawing at straws, my friend.

um…no more than anyone else here is…

Why

is everyone so sure that KJ will be able to rebound next year? I understand questioning whether Prado can keep it up, but I can see KJ going either way.

Seriously? KJ rebounded this past year!

True,

but in a relatively small, spread out amount of at bats. I’m just not convinced that he can be relied on if we were to actually trade Prado.

I am not convinced that we can rely on Prado, since I showed above that he was just as bad for nearly as long as KJ was…KJ is the one with a 3 year track record of success…Prado has 1 month of great hitting.

Prado has 1 month of great hitting.

he has 779 MLB career ABs, with a line of .307/ .360/ .451/ .811.

clearly, this compares quite favorably to Kelly’s line of .264/ .346/ .430 / .777 in slightly more than twice as many ABs (1661).

Ho much of those numbers are boosted by his insane hot streak?

I mean, did you even look at the stats? Prado was RIDICULOUSLY hot in July and just as cold from late July – Sept.

I'm not arguing that,

I just don’t see any reason why I should think KJ will go back to his ‘07 and ’08 form. I watched Kelly hit all season – without even checking the numbers I’m guessing that his LD% went down. I did not see very many hard hit balls from him, and I just don’t know why it’d be a better idea to rely on KJ instead of Prado.

Because KJ showed in the 2nd half of last season (granted, a small sample size, but enough to satisfy the question of “can he bounce back?”) that he indeed still has that 07-08 player in him.

He also has a better track record than Prado. The question here shouldn’t be “Can KJ bounce back?” It should be "Can Prado A) sustain his hitting for a whole season (so far, that answer is no) and B) Can HE bounce back from his aweful slump in the 2nd half?

It is also funny that you question KJs power ability when, even with his horrible stretch last season, he still hit 8 HRs and 20 doubles and 3 triples. Compare that to Prado who hit 38 doubles and 11 HRs in over 200 more ABs. His LD% was 14% in 09, 20% in 08, 15% in 07 and 19% in 05.

Yes, his 14% was low, but the power was still there and he showed in his minimal # of chances in the 2nd half that he can indeed bounce back.

I don’t see Prado’s awful 2nd half at all. He hit .290/.331/.443 with 7 homers and 19 doubles after the All-Star break. What’s awful about that?

I’ve already posted it once, but I will post it again:

Prado from 25 July – 15 Sept (39 games, 166 PAs, 154 ABs)

.227 .253 .312 .565
3 HR, 2 Doubles, 5BB, 25Ks

Prado from Sept 16-Oct 4

29 hits in 70 AB’s – good for a .414 batting average. He also had 13 doubles and 2 homers in this stretch, ending his cold streak. He clearly rebounded at the end of the season.

As did KJ…which is my point.

well if they both rebounded, why not go with the cheaper option? :)

I see more what you mean with KJ. It’s just that when KJ rebounded, his rebound doesn’t seem as impressive or convincing as Prado’s.

I think it isn’t as impressive because it was spread out over time due to limited ABs.

I prefer KJ for the following reasons:

1. More upside
2. Better track record
3. More power
4. Better defensively

I would prefer Prado for the following reasons:

1. Cheaper
2. um….?

well, you don’t know if KJ has more upside than Prado, that’s more of an opinion.

As far as a better track record, I wouldn’t say it’s necessarily better, it’s just longer. Prado still has a sizable amount of AB’s.

And I don’t think KJ has more power. KJ averaged 14 home runs in 07 and 08. If Prado had the same amount of PA in a season, he would average 13.36 home runs. Their amount of doubles are similar, with Prado averaging more per PA than KJ.

And defensively…I’ll agree that Kelly has more range but Prado is just as solid.

how much? its a simple math computation.
you do know that in ’’08, he had a .320 avg and .838 ops; and his numbers in ’09 were down to .307 and .822 – despite the hot run.
also, you appreciate that hot streaks are good. a few of those streaks can vault a player into all-star consideration

in 2008 he only had 228 ABs which means we can’t really compare those counting stats to the 2009 ones. It isn’t as simple as you make it out to be.

I thought a nice straightforward comparison of the career numbers was simple.

Prado: 779 MLB career ABs: .307/ .360/ .451/ .811

Johnson: 1661MLB career ABs: .264/ .346/ .430 / .777

Silly me.

Why don’t we look at minor league numbers? I don’t understand how you just can’t get what Justin and I are talking about

Also his line drive % was 17.9%, not 14. While Prado’s was 19.8%, 1.9% better, although Kelly apparently popped up in every at bat while Prado stepped in and sparked the team with a liner.

Maybe I’m just stoopid.
Do you really think distant minor league stats are more or equally relevant than recent minor legue stats?!

recent minor legue recent major league

Do we have to go over this again? Martin pretty much came out of nowhere with no track record, as evidenced by his minor league stats from 3 or 4 years ago the distant past. My point has been this entire thread that trading Martin would be a better idea, since we really have no idea what he is going to do.

Wren signed Jesus??? Now there’s a big hitter.

I don't know...

I’ve heard he can’t hit a curveball.

Also, KJ will be getting somewhere between $3M-and $4M in his arbitration raise.

or he will be traded or non-tendered.

even if he is traded, he should get an Arb raise.

if he is non-tendered, he becomes one of the hot FAs and could get a multi-year deal worth more than what he is currently making.

na, i really doubt KJ gets non-tendered. he’ll get traded somewhere…he still has lots of value.

I really don’t know, but suspect Bobby was trying to bolster up his value so an actual trade partner could be id’ed, as otherwise they will non-tender him.

The next time you talk to Frank, tell him I said “hello”.

is my absolutely idle speculation bothering you?
if so, I must say that suggesting Kelly may become a “hot” free agent and land a valuable “multi-year” deal is a little too damn vague. please speculate with more specificity in the future.
thanks!

Speculation is fine (as that is what 90% of our posts are) but saying that they will definitely non-tender him as a counter-argument to someone who says they don’t think it would happen isn’t really speculation…

All I was saying is there are multiple options: arbitration, trade or non-tender.

My speculation is it seems the Braves would like to trade him and Bobby is fanning the fire.

Also, if there is no trade, then as between arbitration and non-tender, he may very well get non-tendered.

However, my hope and what I think would be best for the team is he would instead stay with the Braves with a 1 year contract via the arbitration process.

So, sadly, I’m afraid it would be a financially-driven – rather than a what is best for the team baseballwise-driven – decision

Bobby Cox per DOB on Schafer
Here’s what Cox said when asked whether he’s confident that Jordan Schafer can come back and be the player they expected:

"Well, we played him with a broken hand. We didn’t really know it at the time, but it bothered him the entire time. As far as I know, he’s going to be fit and ready to go, and still one heck of a prospect."

I for one wouldn’t mind playing him in AAA all year if we sign Cameron but if we don’t I’d be up for starting him out of ST. As long as we don’t trade him and give him a full year somewhere I’d be happy.

Broken wrist, Bobby

But hey, it’s close to being sort of the same.

I will cry

when they trade my KJ.

I will be crying by your side
I won't be by your side,

but you will certainly hear my tears all the way from up here in Pennsylvania

Crasnik just reported that Soriano accepted the Braves offer of $6.5M – 8M

what does that price range mean?

it means we’ll probably offer $6.5 and he’ll ask for $8 million

Okay, I figured it out: I guess Crasnick is speculating that the Braves will offer 6.5 mill and Soriano will ask for $8.

Or the Braves offered $6.5M with incentives up to $8M? That is how I interpreted it…

Nope

Arbitrator will set the amount. Crasnick is speculating on the range, meaning somewhere between 6.5 and 8 mil

With the age/durability issues of our bullpen, I think we need to try and keep him

MLBTR just confirmed it:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/rafael-soriano-likely-to-accept-arbitration.html

Rafael Soriano accepted the Braves’ offer of arbitration, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Braves, who recently signed Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, will have lots of relatively expensive relievers under contract. Imagine if Mike Gonzalez accepts, too.

As ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick points out, the Braves need Soriano’s permission to trade him before June 15th. Apparently Soriano prefers the security of a one-year deal to the uncertainty of a market that would have been dulled by his Type A status.
Wonder who wants him, and who he wants to go to?...

Lowe and Soriano, make us an offer gentlemen.

Curious

How the hell does Crasnick AND Heyman confirm before Shanks, O’Brien or Bowman?

Who knows. These guys have been up since 6 or 7am this morning and have been going left and right all day long. They might need sleep

Agreed

I’m not buying it yet. Will wait to hear it from the horses mouth first. This just wreaks of a writer jumping the gun or somebody misinterpreting a twitter post!

well, there’s like 4 reporters saying it now, so im pretty set on it

Most of them are quoting each others twitter feeds. MLBTR report is from KRos twitter feed and the day I believe anything off his feed is the day I chew on rabbit pellets.

I’ll wait to hear from a Braves source (FO).

Read DOB's blog

even he is saying it, that Soriano unfortunately accepted his offer of arbitration

This is his exact quote:

jcrasnick: Soriano apparently felt more comfortable with a sure thing from Atlanta — one year and $6.5 to $8 million — than going out on the market

Monday December 7, 2009 11:38 jcrasnick
11:40 jcrasnick: The Braves weren’t planning for this, and now they can try to trade Soriano. But any deal before June 15 would require his consent.

 

Well, that throws a monkey wrench into things… but now we know.

I hope Soriano is at least still our set-up guy. I’d rather have him working there than Saito.

man, I kinda wish we woulda waited on Saito now. I love BWag as our closer. Saito was good…until Soriano decided to accept arb. Now we’re in a bad situation.

Not really.

Either we trade Sori, and we are in the same position as before but with an extra player from the trade. If not, we have a crazy awesome ’pen, albeit an expensive one. It just pretty much makes trading Lowe a necessity to unload his contract

Yup. I love the idea that we could possibly be spending $23M on our last 3 inning pitchers…that has to be an MLB record.

we better not blow one f’ing lead next year!

Just kidding…

but seriously.

Sadly, that isn’t even funny…

ah

this kinda sucks.

I am sure it's not a record.

The Yankees exist and Rivera gets approximately $15 million/year. I am sure they have topped $23 million before. (And fwiw, we aren’t near $23 million—-we are at about $17-18 million.)

If the incentives kick in you have $5.5 for Saito, $10M for Wagner and $8M for Soriano. That equals $23.5M.

I don’t think the yankees ever had a multimillion dollar setup man, except for when they signed our garbage that one year.

with Soriano...

and the redundancy of Saito/Wags incentives, the chances of all of that coming true is about as much as St Louis sending Pujols our way for Soriano, Lowe and Freeman.

Especially if Soriano is on the roster for even half the year, I doubt Saito has a realistic chances of reaching $5.5.

You keep forgetting that it’s very unlikely for both Saito and Wags to reach all their incentives with so much overlapping, and the chances drop WAY down with another quality possible closer like Soriano in the pen.

What are Wagner's incentives?

I thought the only incentive was the 2011 option kicking in with 50 games finished. Are there others?

Doesn't look like it....

1 year/$7M (2010), plus 2011 option
signed by Atlanta as a free agent 12/2/09
10:$6.75M, 11: $6.5M club option ($0.25M buyout)
2011 option guaranteed with 50 games finished in 2010

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/atlanta-braves_15.html

DOB said

the Braves are “really pushing” to trade DLowe.

If we trade DLowe, maybe not all hope will be lost. We’d have some money to spend.

OMFG

Deja vu anyone?

haha I kinda wish these writers would have something new every once in a while

But see, now everyone knows we’re desperate. Before Sori accepted arb it was a “we’d really like to, but we don’t have to” kind of thing. Now everyone knows our backs are against the wall and can ask for fewer/worse players on their end or that we eat a larger chunk of his salary. This is not a good thing.

Liberty Media just needs to pony up now.

Man I wish, but that doesn’t seem likely.

Liberty Media seems to be booming as best I can tell from a brief, unsophisticated review.
also, there has been not a peep of an official word as to the Braves’ 2010 payroll budget.
if LM happened to have opened off the coffers in order to gear up for a championship run, it would absolutely top secret, guarded like the nuclear launch codes.

Doubtful…..unfortunately

Agreed

Saito was not a very good signing in the first place. Now it looks worse.

Oy. We haven't heard from Mike Gonzalez yet.

he signed with Boras…no chance he accepts.

Lets hope

Nobody (especially the best Lefty on the market) signs with Boras only to accept arbitration.

With how the offseason has gone so far for Wren, I wouldn’t second guess Gonzo not taking his arbitration offer.

Betancourt: accepts
Soriano: accepts
Pavano: accepts
Lyon: rejects
DeRosa: rejects

Jose Valverde rejects arb..

>>Worst case for Atlanta? Soriano gets half a season of $8mill salary. The other half paid for by his new team after June 15. Knowing this, he oughta participate in the process and help get that trade done sooner than later… the Braves might even give him a choice.

He can be traded before June 15, but has to give permission to for the Braves to do so. I fully expect that to happen.

Yeah I think its in his best interest to agree to a deal before ST. Every guy in the clubhouse knows he just cost them a bat, if it were me I wouldn’t stick around for my asswhoopin, I’d get the hell outta Dodge.

They can’t hate the dude for looking out for himself.

Exactly

And Wren had to know there was a possibility of this happening, even if it was a slim one. He has a plan. If there was absolutely no possible way of us being able to handle this, we wouldn’t have taken the risk of offering him

I read where Wren said that it “doesn’t really matter if they accept it or not. They won’t be happy in their new roles, because those roles will not be the same that they were last year. They can accept if they want and we will just trade them”

That is a near exact quote too.

I am now officially rooting for Jose Valverde to get a $34M/3 year deal and for Lyon to get $22M/2.

In other news...

Brad Penny to St. Louis — $7.5m plus incentives to max of $9mill. That sounds to me like: (a) they overpaid; and (b) they aren’t worrying about resigning Holliday any more.

Or Smoltz, for that matter.

Rod Barajas (C, Blue Jays) declined arb.

GONZALEZ DECLINES — MLBTR.com

“Mike Gonzalez has turned down arbitration to explore the market, according to Yahoo’s Tim Brown. Rafael Soriano accepted the Braves’ offer earlier tonight, so the Braves have a deep bullpen even without Gonzalez.”

Whew… now to rest…

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