Talking Chop

I would say it’s a ploy to get the teams that have shown interest in him to up the ante, but those teams could eaisly call his bluff and wait out the deadline Monday night, so I don’t really know what to make of this report. I think there’s a high likelihood he gets shipped out of town if he accepts, just because of financial restraints. The only way I can see him sticking around is if we unload Lowe’s entire contract, which is going to be difficult, and there’s still money left to sufficiently bolster first base. If, after moving Lowe, we can’t get the first sacker we need due to salary (be it off the market or via trade, for instance Fielder has a hefty contract), Sori will be gone. Wagner and Saito is enough insurance that a good reliever like him just became a luxury, and we can’t afford to sink that kind of money into a luxury with such glaring needs elsewhere.

J-Freak - December 6, 2009 reply

Disagree

If Sori accepts arb he will be a Brave in 2010. Lowe can easily be dumped without us having to eat any of the contract IMO and I still think that would give us just enough to fill our holes.

You really think Lowe's contract is easy to dump?

My guess is it should be possible to dump Lowe (and at least 75% of his contract) after the Lackey and Halladay situations are resolved. Until then, I think it is somewhere between improbable and impossible.

fandave - December 6, 2009 reply

I have a pretty good feeling

That when Wren offerred both Gonzo and Soriano arbitration, that he himself knew it wasn’t a guarantee both would decline and sign elsewhere. Maybe it’s just me thinking optimistically, but I’m sure Wren thinks long and hard with each move he makes (and has made), the positives and negatives included.

SmithnCompany - December 6, 2009 reply

DING DING DING

Winnar!

side point

but if Soriano accepts, he can’t be traded until June 15th (The FA rule doesn’t differentiate between arbitration or otherwise).

I highly doubt they accept arb, though. It’d probably be tough for Rafael to go back to Atlanta as the setup man.

toonsterwu - December 6, 2009 reply

he doesnt seem to care whether he is setting up or relieving he never made a stink about doing either… i dont think he cares (he especially won’t care with 8M in the bank)

THIS

and thanks to toonsterwu, I was wondering about that rule.

Actually...

I seem to recall that in ’08 right before he got hurt, he said he wanted to either “start or close.”

FineHamAbounds - December 6, 2009 reply

thas weird seeing as he hasnt started since 04 (in 05 he had GS bt they were all 1 02 innings outings)

I’m glad you found the info about when a FA can be traded. I knew there was a restriction but couldn’t remember when and didn’t have much luck looking it up. Thanks.

Not to convolute the point, but...

…I will anyway. An arbitration-accepting player may sign with their team at any point prior to the arbitration hearing (we know this – it happens all the time). Once that contract is in place, does that then make him tradeable immediately? Or does that June 15 rule still hold?

The relevency of this is (of course) whether Atlanta could sign Soriano at any point after Monday and then still flip him to another team. That would provide some sort of player(s) in return and then transfer the salary to another squad.

The big question, though: who needs a closer that would be willing to pony up $8-10 mill? Clearly the Yankees and Red Sox are out of that equation (unless the Sox want expensive Papelbon insurance). Seattle? LA (either team)?

carpengui - December 6, 2009 reply

No, that wouldn’t change the rule at all.

Chief Noc-A-Homa - December 6, 2009 reply

DOB is reporting:

But the Braves believe there’s no real chance of either player accepting arbitration. Soriano and Gonzalez are expected to receive multi-year offers from other teams — and their agents know it.

By accepting Braves arbitration by Monday, Soriano and Gonzalez would be taking themselves off the market before the market even took shape.

fandave - December 6, 2009 reply

I believe this about as much as I do the report that the Yankees are reducing payroll. Soriano will decline arbitration and accept a multi-year deal from somebody.

redwards95 - December 6, 2009 reply

Raf knows 2010 is going to be special.

no he doesn't

because he knows that he’s not really wanted and that he could get a multi-year deal somewhere (i’m thinking Seattle. they’ve got some $$$ now and they brought him up. we would, i think, also get their first round pick, #18 where we could draft either Nick Castellanos, 3B from HS in Florida or Victor Sanchez, 3B from UC-San Diego or Zack Cox from Arkansas. I wold prefer all three, and we could get them, but I think we’ll also need a SS/2B from this draft.

I think the Cardinals will strike out on Smoltz and go hard after Gonzo, thus we’d also get their pick.

What I hope is that we get at least 2 3B from this draft, 3 Middle Infielders, 2 Projectable Starting pitchers and a flyer on a high-upside OF.

I hope we draft Evan Grills

SayHeyWerd - December 6, 2009 reply

idk

why we got him from there for some guy who i refuse to remember and he prob gets some headaches from bein there J/k but idk i wouldnt mind Sori back love his killer stare

Erihury - December 6, 2009 reply

I hope we can draft a future...

All Star roster. I mean, we do have like 50-75 picks.

I'd just like to draft the next Pujols

And the next Lincecum, and the next Willie Mayes, and maybe the next Johan Santana. And of course the next Jason Heyward.

So, like, we only really need 5 picks, right?

Jason Heyward > Pujols + Lincecum + Mayes + Santana

Scott Coleman - December 6, 2009 reply

Mayes?....

Do you mean Mays or Hayes? I’ll take both. Add another Furcal, Escobar, Lemke, Eddie Matthews, and Vinny Castilla, cause we need IF.

Ummm....

…Pujols, being Dominican, wasn’t drafted.

Yes he was. He went to a community college in Missouri and was drafted in I believe the 11th round by the Cardinals.

13th round, immediately after Alfredo Amezega. Woo, some scouts should have been fired all over baseball that year.

Its a Mike Piazza situation. Seriously, 63rd round? Love drafts in all sports for crazy things like that.

bigjoe - December 7, 2009 reply

even crazier had it not been for Piazza being related to someone in the dodgers front office he wouldnt had been drafted at all… i wonder how many players there are out there that are like that?

You and I are two, right?

i was clearly one of the top 6 SS in my 6team intramural Law school softball league… which obviously means i should be awesome

i reached base 13 times for 13 Abs with 7 XBH, which means Swo>any player not named Pujols

Swo>any player not named Pujols and that other Justin guy…

justincredubil02 - December 8, 2009 reply

ya right…in ur bra

o so my old team at usf won the intramural championship in softball (i guess they needed to get rid of me to get over the hump)

Swo12bv - December 8, 2009 reply

It was all that money that they saved by non-tendering you that enabled them to go out and fill other holes.

they did lose like half the team so it wasnt just me, and they picked up one of the best power hitters in the league..so that helps

Swo12bv - December 8, 2009 reply

If he accepts he is going to be traded.

So Soriano wants to return in my book it is a little bit to late. A- b/c Wagner is the closer and B- Saito is going to be the setup man (plus Wren, Bobby, and the braves want to keep Japanese relations good so Saito is not going anywhere until after the 2010 season). Soriano was dominate at times and at others he looked confused, awful and downright worn out. So if he accepts arb he is going to be play elsewhere in 2010
regardless the question is for whom. I still think Soriano walks b/c he wants to play and really their is no longer a spot for him in the ATL bullpen.

If he stays package him with D. Lowe and really get a great player(s).

Soriano and Lowe

to the Angels

for Morales and Rivera .

Now that is a great trade for both sides and the Angels need serious pitching help, Scott Kazmir plz, lol.

Holty_Panthers_Fan - December 6, 2009 reply

If they want more throw in a Jo-Jo Reyes or something similar. Either way I think both teams make this trade.

Holty_Panthers_Fan - December 6, 2009 reply

Either way I think both teams make this trade.

You really should’ve stopped at the first idiotic notion.

haha

Smoltz's Beard - December 6, 2009 reply

Who are you….

yondaime4 - December 6, 2009 reply

Watch your mouth.

Smoltz's Beard - December 6, 2009 reply

Who hangs up first on that deal?

TradeAndruw - December 6, 2009 reply

depends on who calls

I can't imagine the Angels calling to make that offer,...

unless it was April 1.

it was a joke…lol.

ya see usually you wouldnt call someone to propose a trade and then hang up on the trade proposal

unless you’re the Tigers GM calling the Braves GM, cause then you realize you’re dead if you make a trade.

Scott Coleman - December 6, 2009 reply

Explain to me how the Angels benefit from trading their best hitter.

That’s not even considering they’ve already lost Chone Figgins and will probably lose Guerrero as well.

Don't let facts and information cloud this up

Duh, this is a no-brainer. As in, don’t think about it, because it makes no sense when you use your brain.

If they accept that, then I have a Dodge Dakota that I would like to trade them for a Dodge Viper.

Blue or CONKZILLA - December 6, 2009 reply

Please

put down the bong.

Ha no way we get Morales

SayHeyWerd - December 6, 2009 reply

Maybe B Woods? We kinda will need a third basmen soon.

rocket8188 - December 6, 2009 reply

i could see the Angels

getting desperate and signing Beltre/Feliz

and THEN Woods is expendable. but as of now, he IS their third baseman.

i could see a Lowe/Soriano for Woods/Matthews, Jr. after the Angels sign someone to play 3B. But the albatross that is Matthews, Jr’s contract is worse than Lowe’s. Woods will be a hitter (and soon) but I think we need a more established bat than that.

If he accepts

We’re out two draft picks, but we’ll have an awesome bullpen next year. Braves will need to clear up some salary somewhere, but I don’t see them trading Soriano unless it’s at the deadline and they’re falling out of contention.

then he leaves next year

and we get the picks then. no biggie. not many closers on the market next year.

thats prob what he is looking at.

ANd there are a lot this year?...

I believe Paplebon is on the market next year, and that is clearly 1 above Soriano. Now he has who? Gonzalez-who he held the closer’s job over all year, and Jose Valverde? But yeah, next year the market will be better for him? I don’t see how it gets better than being arguably the best relief arm on the market.

If he accepts

Then we are still fine.

This is a post from MLBTR

Italic phrase
If Soriano did accept, that would severely hinder our financial flexibility for our offense.

Although I believe you win through pitching, so I love the idea of Medlen, Moylan, Soriano, Saito and Wagner.

Right now, after the Saito signing, we would have roughly 83MM in payroll, with a projected final payroll around 95MM according to Mark Bowman – Braves writer on MLB.com

If Soriano accepted and cost us 8MM through arbitration that would leave us with only 4MM to play with.

This means a few things to me:

1) Kelly Johnson is non-tenured. (no one will trade for him when they know he is about to be non-tenured) – Saves – 2.825 from last year. (Brooks Conrad takes spot)
2) Ryan Chuch will be non-tenured. (same deal) – Saves 2.8 from last year. (Jordan Schafer takes spot)

Italic's fail

The point is that with that money we could go out and sign someone like Jack Cust who is likely to be non-tendered

Cust? Seriously? He’s been declining across the board for 3 years. He had a Homer spike last year, but still drove in 5 fewer runs than 07, and this year drove in 7 fewer than last year. He can’t hit over .240 consistently to save his life, his OBP and SLG are declining, he’s hoisting red flags all over the place, and it’s not as if he can field to make up for it.

There’s word the Mets have interest in him, I’d much rather sit back and let him be their problem.

J-Freak - December 6, 2009 reply

Ummm, regardless of the offense...

…the point of signing Cust is missing since we don’t get to play a DH except for a few times per year. He can’t field anywhere without making Garrett Anderson look good.

While most of your points are valid, lets keep RBI out of future discussion. Shall we?

Smoltz's Beard - December 7, 2009 reply

today is the happiest day of my life… to see my honored by one of the famed eleven in such a manner…wow… tears ….thats all i have

Haha, famed 11…forgot about that shit.

Smoltz's Beard - December 7, 2009 reply

Really, even with Soriano on the payroll, it’s not the end of the world: For the sake of argument, call that salary $9 mill. If he declines arb., then the Brave will have to pay two more high draft picks… and bonuses totalling … what, maybe $4million? The difference, then is $5mill hit against the budget if he’s wearing a tomahawk in 2010. That’s significant, but it probably isn’t crippling at this point in the off-season.
But maybe that’s why there’s the report of “strong interest” in Marlon Byrd. He’s cheaper than the other FA guys we’d all rather have roaming the outside. That and I agree with the other speculations above (re: Kelly/Ryan).

carpengui - December 6, 2009 reply

I would prefer

us to sign Jack Cust and just start Heyward =^)

Cust is useless...

…unless we move to the AL. He can’t play passable defense in the OF or at 1B.

If we non-tender KJ and Iglesia, our bench would consist of Infante, Ross and scrubs. No thanks.

lol at iglesia… you did learn something in our spanish class

I know more spanish than that profesora!

One plus....

it’d pretty much assure Saito doesn’t reach his games finished threshold and stays at $3.2m, instead of the $5+ figure, and possibly makes it so Wagner fails to reach enough to kick in next year’s option unless we wanted to force that.

So, by spending $8M, we save $5M…you sound like my wife on Black Friday.

"As King, you must find the good in any situation"

Also...

you call that spent, like Lowe’s $15 million is spent. We can’t control if he’ll accept arb or not. We rolled the dice and lost that gamble. I just wish we’d done it with LaRoche too (meaning rolled the arbitration dice, not necessarily had him accept it).

Just saying if he accepts, it’s more like spending $3-5m instead of the full 8 because of likely savings elsewhere. Now, worst case scenario, he and the 2 old guys all go down with injuries by June, and we have $20 million in bullpen arms on the DL down the stretch. It’d be like 2008 all over again.

…non-tenured? LOL

And Brooks Conrad sucks man, theres a reason he’s a career minor leaguer.

but he had 12 good ABs!

He doesn’t suck. He’s never really been given a chance to play in the Majors, and no, a week’s worth of ABs this year doesn’t count. Look at his AAA numbers, he doesn’t suck.

He’s a 4A player CB, and you know this. He can go hang out and play with Mike Hessman, Andy Tracy, and the rest of the 2009 Iron Pigs roster.

Wouldn’t argue his 4A status at all, but that doesn’t mean he sucks. Part of the definition is a guy who just hasn’t gotten the chance. It’s not like he’s played a fair amount in the bigs and sucked, he just hasn’t played.

i never said the alternatives were good i just said there were cheaper alternatives and that could be a factor in Wren’s decision making

If the decision is to let MUCH lesser skilled players have a spot based on what amounts to about 2% of the total payroll, we should fire Wren.

he made near 3M last year and will get a raise bc thats what happens in arbitration you get more money than u used to make. so its at least 3% and probably closer to 4%

and one decision should never be the determining factor in whether a guy gets fired or not… it should be a accumulation of suckitude (the amount of that accumulation is subject for debate i think it shuold less than a shitload but more than a crapload …. ya i think theres a difference)

Ya got me. 3.5% then.

Dude, don’t you know FW’s track record of bad decisions?

Let me educate you:

1. He traded the farm for Tex !!!!
2. He brought in a career loser with a 4+ ERA and gave away one of our best hitting prospects in the process
3. He didn’t resign Smoltz
4. He cut Glavine
5. He traded away Edgar Rentaria for some no-name minor-league pitcher
6. He gave up WAY too many good prospects for Nate McLouth

It is soooo obvious that he doesn’t know what he is doing. He is terrible! FIRE WREN!

He traded Tex for crap...

Schuerholz traded the farm for Tex. Get your timeline straight.

Mr. Sanchez - December 7, 2009 reply

Whoosh

Yakker - December 7, 2009 reply

hahaha

2-6 actually happened under Wren's watch.

so the sarcasm throughout might be misinterpreted.

Mr. Sanchez - December 7, 2009 reply

2-6 are also not bad moves, hence the sarcasm throughout.

So, by spending $8M, we save $5M…you sound like my wife on Black Friday.

That was a reply fail on my part…

+1

sounds like every woman I know on Black Friday.

And i guess theres a new thing called “Cyber Monday” where all the shit is cheap online.

F. My. Life. Right?

Scott Coleman - December 6, 2009 reply

Let's face it, if he accepts, it sucks.

We apparently can’t trade him per the rules, and he precludes signing a decent 1B. I hope it is bluster or something ugly will happen. If he accepts everyone knows we are tight on cash, which will probably preclude a Lowe move and means either we don’t get the 1B we need or we have to move Vazquez for below face value.

what rules?