Danny Knobler from CBS Sportsline has the scoop (hat tip: Zeus12888):
The Braves are close to signing free-agent reliever Takashi Saito to a one-year contract, CBSSports.com has learned.
The deal, which should be announced later this afternoon, is expected to be for about $3 million.
Wow! And Fantastic! We really are moving quickly.
Saito would be the right-handed setup man to the recently signed (yesterday) closer Billy Wagner -- an 8th and 9th inning combo that is almost 80 years old between them. Saito came to the States late, but he has excelled each of the four years he's been here as either a closer or setup man. While he has been getting a bit more hittable the last couple of years, he remains a strikeout pitcher and an experienced late innings reliever.
Saito is not a type-A or B free agent, so signing him will not cost us anything but money. Both he and Wagner were teammates last year in the Red Sox bullpen... I wonder if there's anyone else we want from that pen. The rumored $3 million seems like a bit much, since he made half of that last year, and no more than $2 million in either of his seasons in LA. Are we being too eager?
[UPDATE: 3:15]
It's official, I just got the press release announcing the signing. Good job by Danny Knobler, and good job yesterday by Ken Rosenthal on the Billy Wagner deal. At some point an Atlanta beat writer will break some news. Here is the money quote from Frank Wren on how Saito will be used next year:
"While we primarily expect him to pitch in the eighth inning, this allows us to have another pitcher with 'closer' ability who can compliment Billy Wagner, similar to the depth we had in 2009."
Word. And now to the bat mobile... bad pun.
0 recs | 278 comments
Ok, I dig it. An I know I’m usually positive, but I do have this nag in the back of my head worrying if this will be like last year where we made a bunch of great moves but still didn’t improve our biggest weakness, the offense.
cbwilk - December 3, 2009
We had the offense last year. There were just too many dry spells. Plus, Infante’s broken hand hurt us more than anyone could have imagined.
It’s surprising to me that TP kept his job….
Chief Noc-A-Homa - December 3, 2009
Jay Hey kid is the offense....
and if the top 3 can stay healthy we’ve got a pretty good start to this pen with Wags, Saito, Moylan, EOF, and Medlen among the other kids like Valdez, Kimbrel, Hyde, and Gearrin, as well as Proctor and other veterans.
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
As much as I believe in Heyward, and believe that after he comes up in June he’ll be a consistent player and a solid part of the lineup, he’s not the big bat we should be getting.
cbwilk - December 3, 2009
Good move at a great price! This will effective get us the same close down pen trio with Wags/Saito/Moylan with saving 4-5M if we keep Soriano 8M and Gonzo 5-6M. I just hope FW is 1000% positive that Soriano and Gonzo will not accept Arb and that they have takers lined up for Lowe or a trade in the work for sometype of bat at OF/1B. I believe right now we have about 5M (I could be wrong on that exact number) to have left in the budget to get a bat.
Hanson-Ace - December 3, 2009
Glaus for $5m and Dye for the veteran minimum?
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
Dye has a couple of suitors… we wont get him for veteran minimum
we’ll need about 3M to get him, although we have the added benefit that he would like play the OF and not DH
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
Pujols?
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
I like where your head’s at.
Smoltz's Beard - December 3, 2009
up his butt?
:)
justincredubil02 - December 3, 2009
touche
Swo12bv - December 4, 2009
What veteran minimum? That’s…not a thing…
cbwilk - December 3, 2009
shhhhh
Swo12bv - December 4, 2009
so a guy can sign for $1, if he and the team agree?
Mr. Sanchez - December 4, 2009
There’s league minimum ($400K, I believe) but not a “Vet minimum”.
justincredubil02 - December 4, 2009
ah
thank you
Mr. Sanchez - December 4, 2009
But then,...
wouldn’t the “league minimum” also be the “veteran minimum”? So see, I’m still right.
Mr. Sanchez - December 4, 2009
ill repeat what i said in Zeus' fanpost
another day, another WOW
I was just thinking the other day Wren should go after this guy, but didnt think it would happen. I had looked pretty hard at his stats (which have been good since he came over to the MLB). Another plus is getting someone in that clubhouse that KK can actually talk to.
I must say that this off-season is sure shaping up nicely so far. Wren has taken care of the bullpen already and the winter meeting havent even started. Aight Lackey sign somewhere so we can move Lowe!
Slee - December 3, 2009
Love the move
And that essentially completes our pitching staff for next year (at least the major stuff), so the rest of the off-season FW will be able to focus on getting a bat.
was385 - December 3, 2009
Stage One
I like these moves mostly because now we know that Wren will be busting his butt working on the offense from now til the end of the Winter Meetings. I really like this new sense of urgency in the front office and I’m starting to trust what Wren is doing.
braves6114 - December 3, 2009
I said last year that we need to nickname Frank “Bam-Bam”, because when he makes one move, you can bet he’s about to hit you with another one.
10-4 - December 3, 2009
GO. GET. PAPELBON!!!!
Bmacbandwagon - December 3, 2009
lol
Hey, maybe Juan Abreu will work as well for us as Ramon Ramirez did for them!
Zeus12888 - December 3, 2009
Go Go Wren
I have to add that this time last year i really had my doubts about Wren, but man after those early fiasco’s with Peavy, AJ, and Furcal he has really stepped up to plate and made some good moves. I also like that he is wasting no time this offseason. It is really like he feels that he needs to give Bobby the best team he can for his finale.
Slee - December 3, 2009
This is true, but last year wasn’t totally his fault, ie Furcal verbally agreeing then bouncing out.
ROBravo - December 3, 2009
it also wasnt his fault that AJ Burnett wanted more money than Wren was willing to pay (esp when Wren’s offer was pretty solid)
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
I like this alot....
Saito has remained effective…Bobby likes veterans and both are certainly that.
(Does anyone know what Saito’s splits are RH vs LH batters?)
Saito has also been a top flight closer in the past and could step up if Wagner gets hurt.
I do worry about workload a little bit given that Bobby has a death wish for Peter Moylan’s right arm and then add that Saito and Wagner are at…or near 40 yrs of age. We are really going to need EOF to stay on track and we are going to need Medlen come on strong.
There was one other name I wasn’t aware of…Brett Myers…that was attractive to me as he has had some success in the bullpen and could start. However, if he can stay healthy I think Saito is a better immediate help to the cause.
calbers - December 3, 2009
I don't like Brett Myers...
…for his off the field actions. I would find it very hard to root for him. He can be an effective pitcher, however.
cavebird - December 3, 2009
He's better at pounding his wife than he is pounding the strike zone...
Morally I would HATE to have him on our team. So I am happy that there is NO WAY possible he becomes a Brave. More likely state pen than Braves pen.
Fischerking - December 3, 2009
Seriously. Not only has he shown himself to be horrible to his wife, but I’ve never talked with anyone who’s met him who doesn’t think he’s a completely reprehensible person. He really is an all around piece of shit.
cbwilk - December 3, 2009
How fitting that he played in Philly
bravesguy311 - December 3, 2009
Exhibit A
TradeAndruw - December 3, 2009
hahahaha
wow that was hilarious.
“I thought the first one was out, not the second one.”
“YOU’RE A F***IN’ RETARD AHHH MY WIFE WILL PAY FOR THIS”
alligatorimpersonator - December 3, 2009
Haha, “my wife will pay for this” Classic.
Smoltz's Beard - December 3, 2009
No complaints here.
Soriano and Gonzo would have cost $18-20MM, and we set the ’pen for half that while still maintaining that awesome R-L combo. EOF/Moylan-Saito-Wagner is pretty sick at the end of a game.
Now, Wren, MAKE WITH THE BATS.
FineHamAbounds - December 3, 2009
AND SAITO CAN BE BFF WITH KK NOW!!!
WE’RE MAKIN’ STRIDES IN THE AZN MARKETS!
GO WREN!!
get swoll yunel - December 3, 2009
lmao
Offseason Tasks
Big Bat-
Closer- check
Get KK a best friend- check
SayHeyWerd - December 3, 2009
Are we sure their friends?...
were they past teammates? Not saying they aren’t, but are we just assuming Japanese people all like each other.
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
its science
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
Of course, we all know the following:
1. Cubans have bad attitudes
2. Asians only pitch well in their first MLB year
3. All Japanese players are bffs
justincredubil02 - December 3, 2009
per Wikipedia....
Saito previously pitched for the Yokohama BayStars in the Japanese Central League, compiling a record of 87-80 over 13 seasons.
Kenshin Kawakami (34 years old) originally pitched for the Chunichi Dragons of the Central League.
Well, they would certainly know OF each other, being in the same division for several years.
carpengui - December 3, 2009
yeah that,
and there both japenese
SayHeyWerd - December 3, 2009
Where both Japanese?
justincredubil02 - December 3, 2009
thx, needed that laugh
Lizziebeth - December 3, 2009
:)
Anytime.
justincredubil02 - December 3, 2009
I'm turning Japanese
I really think so.
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
That song is gross. I love it.
cbwilk - December 3, 2009
Well...
….in the presser Saito did say that Kawakami did recruit him pretty heavily.
bravesfan91 - December 3, 2009
Now we need to figure out how to get Cameron here.
I don’t think the Lowe contract can be moved effectively, so I say deal Vasquez for prospects and go out and sign Cameron and Glaus (or whomever you want to play first).
We’d have injury risks galore, but if these guys can stay healthy I’d like this roster a lot.
get swoll yunel - December 3, 2009
If we are just moving a pitcher for prospects...
…we should be able to dump Lowe’s contract. If we want a 1B or something real in return, we have to move Vazquez. I think either could still be moved and Wren is keeping his options open because he knows the market for Lowe improves after Lackey signs.
cavebird - December 3, 2009
You may be right, but I am pessimistic about moving Lowe’s contract for anything of value without eating a significant chunk of it (which seems counterproductive to me).
As great as Vasquez was this past season, I don’t think it would be a terrible move to sell high on him now to try and acquire a couple of future pieces a la the Renteria for Jurrjens/Gorkys trade a couple years ago (another deal where we sold very high on a guy who was going into middle age and the final year of his contract). This would also shed the circa 12 million owed to Vasquez this season allowing us more flexibility in the budget.
What quality 1B options are out there via trade? Cuddyer? Dye? Willingham?
get swoll yunel - December 3, 2009
If Lowe is traded,
I’m hoping they extend Vazquez.
alligatorimpersonator - December 3, 2009
great, not another 2008
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
If we could grab anyone else from that pen, I would love to have that kid Daniel Bard. Got some real electric stuff.
The age of both our new late innings men is somewhat cause for concern, but we certainly filled Gonzo and Soris shoes right quick. Nice work
I like your moves Frank, I like your style
bravesguy311 - December 3, 2009
Bard is about as untouchable as a releif prospect gets
but ya i would like him
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
this
Smoltz's Beard - December 3, 2009
He is rumored to be a key piece in a possible Halladay deal
We certainly don’t want to give up what it would take to get him.
cavebird - December 3, 2009
He can throw about 100, I believe.
GouldisGold - December 3, 2009
you are correct, sir from what i have read
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
but his secondary stuff needs lots of work
apoxonbothyourhouses - December 4, 2009
and that's coming from a UNC guy who saw him pitch more than once.
apoxonbothyourhouses - December 4, 2009
Bard-O would be outstanding. He’s a great kid, grew up a Braves fan, and is a top talent. But, he’s pretty untouchable. He’ll probably be the guy they replace Papelbon with in a year or two.
cbwilk - December 3, 2009
it wouldnt surprise me if the Red Sox traded Paps sooner rather than later
if you have a Papelbon story it should be shared..thats a rule (FYI) and everyone should go look for one online he’s a crazy SOB
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
I’ve never met Papelbon. I’ve heard he’s a dick too. I’ve met his twin brothers. Josh, who’s in the minors for the Red Sox is an amazingly cool guy, but Jeremy, who’s in the minors with the Cubs is an uptight dick. Not sure how Josh came out of the house laid back and cool, but good for him.
cbwilk - December 3, 2009
Papelbon is a dick
I met him once after a game. Well i tried. He walked right by me without even ackowledging me. This was a couple years ago when I was 15 too haha
SayHeyWerd - December 3, 2009
i know its hard to understnad (and im not being snarky in saying that).. but just bc a guy ignores you doesnt make him a dick… it just means he was distracted… im gonna need a little more than that to agree he is a dick… in this case there is more to suggest he is a dick… but that alone wouldnt suffice
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
ok
how bout he was walking by himself casually in street clothes. No one else around, and he completely ignored me
SayHeyWerd - December 3, 2009
Huh. He’s got some weird numbers. Look at his BABIPA for ’08, yet he managed a ton of success. Wild. Also, check out how much his peripherals fell off last year. Like… a lot. Not complaining… 3 mil is a great deal.
Since I started this reply no one has seemed to notice how iffy the ‘10 season looks for him.
He’ll be 40 in February.
K/9 down 30%
BB/9 up 33%
HR/9 up 400% (or 150% over his previous career avg)
FIP up 100%
WHIP at 1.35
His strk:ball ratio used to be close to 2:1… now it’s closer to 3:2.
All at a lower than career avg BABIP.
So while I’m excited and I think this a good move, I’m keeping in mind that, last year, he was worth half what we’re paying for him this year.
Blame it on the AL? Some of it sure, but it seems more like control problems really.
/end partypooping
sgrapevine - December 3, 2009
haha
you’re right about his control…hmmm…well he is definitely declining, but his numbers are still solid. Let’s hope he can regain some control, and a switch to the NL can only help him.
alligatorimpersonator - December 3, 2009
Those are all reasonable worries.
Still, despite the decline last year, he still had almost 9 K/9, and over 2 K/BB. Not too shabby. Also, his BABIP was not extraordinarily low. His strand rate, however, was very high, probably due to the other good relievers the Red Sox had. His FIP was 4.25.
That all being said, at $2-3 million, I’ll happily take that risk.
cavebird - December 3, 2009
yeah, for $2-3m over 1 year...
it’s worth the risk. He was sharp in the NL and can fit us well if healthy. He may crap out, but if so we have cheap options like Kimbrel, Hyde, Gearrin, Proctor, Abreu, Valdez, Diamon, Redmond, Ortegano, Reyes, etc to step up.
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
He was coming off an injury
So there’s a chance he was just shaking the rust off. He’ll probably be somewhere in between, which is perfectly fine.
FineHamAbounds - December 3, 2009
Saito will be 40 in February and has a partially torn ligament in his elbow that he’s not getting TJ surgery on in the offseason.
I don’t understand all the jubiliation. Wren may have just flushed $3M down the commode.
Yakker - December 3, 2009
The deal has to be pending a physical, Im sure the FO wouldnt make the move unless they were certain his elbow would hold up. Esp a FO with limited funds
bravesguy311 - December 3, 2009
Projecting how a torn elbow ligament will hold up is a dicey proposition. Players pass physicals all the time in spite of existing injuries that turn out to hamper their effectiveness going forward. I trust Wren, but all this adding of risk to the bullpen is troubling.
Saito was not good last year, and his arm is not going to magically get better during the offseason. The Red Sox avoided using him on back-to-back nights (same with Wagner, I believe), which is about as bad a sign as any I can think of.
Yakker - December 3, 2009
he’s moving from the AL East to NL so it should be a little easier
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
Frank Wren,
you are a man among boys.
alligatorimpersonator - December 3, 2009
Do Wagner or Saito have hot wives?
TradeAndruw - December 3, 2009
Pertinent question.
But sadly, I’m unable to find any pictures.
FineHamAbounds - December 3, 2009
this
Smoltz's Beard - December 3, 2009
Nice to know we got our priorities in order...
See, I was wondering something similar, but was able to get my answers right away.
Wagner & Saito: cute and single? No and no.
Argh.
Lizziebeth - December 3, 2009
Who would you prefer? Otis Nixon and Jeff Blauser?
TradeAndruw - December 3, 2009
Um, no.
Sorry, it seemed we had a similar sense of humor. shrugs. Guess I was wrong…‘cause that’s just gross.
Lizziebeth - December 3, 2009
He was actually being nice.
If he was old school, he would have said Zane Smith. Now that was one ugly mf.
cavebird - December 3, 2009
zane is what I imagine Eastbound and Down is based on
Doghnut - December 4, 2009
lol
And a miserable dude, too. He was a part of the same Caravan as Gonzo last February; he didn’t smile or say much to anyone. Just looked completely pissed to be there.
Lizziebeth - December 5, 2009
Which seems odd, since really, who cares about Zane Smith in 2009?
cbwilk - December 5, 2009
don't worry Lizzie...
see the list of promising young studs above. You’ll get your eye candy.
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
If not then trading Lowe will be out of the question.
Fischerking - December 3, 2009
depends on who we get in return
im still all for trading for Swisher
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
AMEN
FineHamAbounds - December 3, 2009
Another good cheap high potential signing all things considered. I’m crossing my fingers a Lowe trade is already in place and will be announced at the winter meetings… NL East Champs 2010 baby!!!
HansonManCrush - December 3, 2009 via mobile
Damn I step away for less than an hour!
Wren is moving fast as hell!
Next Stop…..Mike Cameron!
Fischerking - December 3, 2009
Re: Cameron.
Please!!!
cavebird - December 3, 2009
oh hell ya.
Scott Coleman - December 3, 2009 via mobile
I still don’t buy that Wagner and Saito will be better than Soriano and Gonzo… this seems like a downgrade.
homerun - December 3, 2009
I would say they are comparable.
They could be better or worse, and of course either could get injured. Still, to sign to pieces that could be equivalent for the same total price as Gonzo and Soriano last year is pretty good. (Although I still hate giving up the draft pick, lol). Gonzo and Soriano would have cost probably $4 million more than this for 2010.
cavebird - December 3, 2009
Agreed
I think Wagner might be the best of the bunch, but Saito is not as good as either Soriano or Gonzo at this point. IMO, it’s break-even at best.
buzzdeadwax - December 4, 2009
Nice!
Saito isn’t one of the specific guys I wanted, but this will certainly do. Okay, so we got us another righty setup guy. Now on to Scott Eyre.
Great job Wren!
GouldisGold - December 3, 2009
he's exactly who I asked for...
if he could be had at this price. i had kind of hoped wags money would be split between 2 or 3 similar guys to Saito like Lyon and Ohman. Then again, maybe Ohman or Mahay or another is still sitting out there and we can add one more veteran bullpen arm for cheap.
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
Ohman didnt sign till Apr last year theres no reason to suggest he would cost anything this year or sign earlier so while i agree he’s not a bad idea, but theres no reason to rush or overbay
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
overpay*
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
yeah, that's what I meant...
if one of them is out of a job, and willing to take a minor league deal, bring ‘em in. I wouldn’t mind another possible lefty to join EOF. Maybe Boone Logan? Please oh please let Marek somehow find some magic dust and become actually worth a damn.
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
out a job come February
i wish these things had edits.
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
Moves
I am very excited about these early moves. I am curious to see which POWER BAT they pursue. No doubt that one is needed. I feel if the Bravos get that bat, they are in business!
jerryr - December 3, 2009
I just updated the story with this:
It’s official, I just got the press release announcing the signing. Good job by Danny Knobler, and good job yesterday by Ken Rosenthal on the Billy Wagner deal. At some point an Atlanta beat writer will break some news. Here is the money quote from Frank Wren on how Saito will be used next year:
“While we primarily expect him to pitch in the eighth inning, this allows us to have another pitcher with ‘closer’ ability who can compliment Billy Wagner, similar to the depth we had in 2009.”
Word. And now to the bat mobile… bad pun.
gondeee - December 3, 2009
LOL
bat mobile plus the instant apology had me rolling.
Fischerking - December 3, 2009
I'm concerned
/fingers crossed, praying i’m wrong
Hate to be the pessimist but does anyone realize we just signed the two oldest relievers available, both of whom have had significant, recent injuries? Our BP if healthy can be filthy sick but the risk of injury is far too great for me to be excited about this.
scstrato - December 3, 2009
I’m with you, buddy.
Smoltz's Beard - December 3, 2009
I agree, too
Luckily we’ve got Meds, Logan, EOF and Moylan(!) just in case. Not to mention a few guys in the wings (Valdez…). If both these guys can handle a moderate workload, then the back end of any game is going to be pretty well set.
sgrapevine - December 3, 2009
Moylan came off TJ surgery and threw near 90 innings
i include him as a injury risk
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
Absolutely
I mean… they’re all injury risks as far as I’m concerned. They’re relievers, after all. That said, I’m just glad we have strong, diversified alternatives. How often do 3/3 injury risks hit in one year? Fewer than 2/2, you know? At least our injury-prone pitchers have very high upsides.
sgrapevine - December 3, 2009
i think the original point by scstrato was that we need to calm down of the signees bc they are good, but they are more costly than they should be (IMHO) and are old and have injury risks (and we really don’t know what to make of Saito after his 09 season)
that said im happy with the signees, but i would like to see another guy signed (if we can raise of fund to increase our payroll)
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
Oh, I’m right there w/ you about the whole tempering our zeal aspect. I remain dubious as to Saito’s ‘10 effectiveness even if he stays healthy. I also think the BP looks pretty decent considering out SP situatoin and that we could use a few (or one big) offensive moves here in a bit. I think we’re actually a pretty high-upside low-risk BP despite the noise from Moylan, Wags and Saito. If only because, with the yonugsters + Proctor right behind them, we’re not necessarily falling off an ability cliff if we sustain an injury or two.
But all in all I think we’re in a good spot for the first week of december.
sgrapevine - December 3, 2009
completely forgot about Proctor
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
Me too...
Kind of a nice middle man between the youngsters and the geezers and used to pitching a lot of innings. True relief pitcher.
sgrapevine - December 3, 2009
and Abreu...
Hyde, Gearrin, Kimbrel, and Valdez, among others recently added to the 40 man with experience at AA/AAA.
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
Mike Hampton was (is) an injury risk just getting dressed every morning.
carpengui - December 3, 2009
Moylan is always an injury risk.
Simply because of his sidearm delivery. But it’s worth the risk pitching him 90 innings. The guy is a beast.
GouldisGold - December 3, 2009
???
isn’t sidearm supposedly healthier for the arm/shoulder?
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
Yeah, it is.
FineHamAbounds - December 3, 2009
healthier for the shoulder, but not necessarily the elbow
theres really no definitive line its all individual motions, so its tough to say his motion protects his arm or not
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
But Soriano and Gonzo weren't injury risks?..
and more expensive for more years too.
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
Of course they were
In my mind all relievers are risky, but my point is that with their (Saito and Wagner) Age and more recent injuries I feel their risk is greater. You are right though, that thought excludes the theory that Sori and Gonzo will command more years and as a result more dollars but 7mil for Wagner and a potential 5+ mil for Saito isn’t exactly cheap.
scstrato - December 3, 2009
While Saito and Wagner had the recent injuries...
Soriano and Gonzo had the most recent heavy workloads, and considering how Soriano faltered in the last month or so of the season, I’d be VERY hesitant on him.
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
Remember that both...
…Soriano and Gonzo have always been huge injury question marks as well. Getting a bullpen without injury question marks is difficult to impossible. The key is to have depth. I would still love a cheap Calero signing.
cavebird - December 3, 2009
Your attempt to compare Soriano/Gonzo to Wagner/Saito doesn’t really work. We agree on the rest though.
Smoltz's Beard - December 3, 2009
I am just comparing the injury risk.
The age is a difference, but both Soriano and Gonzo have serious injury histories that rival Wagner and Saito.
cavebird - December 3, 2009
I think the point scstrato is trying to make is that we should not jump the gun on how sick our back end of the bullpen is going to be. Just like we shouldn’t have assumed it going into last season, and if people did they were wrong to do so.
It ended up working out last season, but these two have injury histories and are even older that our duo last year. Not enough people seem to take EVERYTHING into account when grading these signings.
To many assumptions, you know?
Smoltz's Beard - December 3, 2009
If that is his point, then fair enough
You can never have too many bullpen arms because they are too fragile. We got away with it last year, it might not happen every year, so we need back-up arms ready to go.
cavebird - December 3, 2009
Actually, it does work, IMO
Wagner threw more innings last year than Soriano did in 2008, and Wags’ injury was more straight forward and diagnosable than was Soriano’s. There were a lot of questions about Rafael’s arm coming into spring training last year.
gondeee - December 3, 2009
My main point was the relative ages of each player. Older players with injury history, or younger players with injury history…which would you prefer?
Smoltz's Beard - December 3, 2009
i think you are assuming that the injury history is comparable and i don’t think it is.
Im not sure how to weigh the discrepancy in age, just as I am unsure how to weigh the discrepancy in the injury risk posed by each…
that said, im cautiously optimistic (as i feel you are) about these signees… If it is 3M for Saito I will be a little disappointed in how much we are paying him, because there are younger better options that are cheaper.
Wagner is older and coming off TJ so there’s some risk, but he looked strong last year in a small sample and was not taxed.
Soriano had TJ a couple years back and had shoulder surgery last offseason and pitched a ton of innings last year and faded down the stretch.
it seems to be kind of a wash, considering Soriano costs more (theoretically).
I think we lose trading GOnzalez’s services for Saito’s but again we are saving some money (theoretically).
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
Oh no, by no means do I feel the injury history is comparable. Honestly I don’t know enough about each player’s specific situation to make an accurate assumption, but if what Yakker said above is true…how Saito is opting not to have surgery…stuff like that is kind of an issue.
Smoltz's Beard - December 3, 2009
i would agree anytime you tear something and decide its a good idea to not fix it, im gonna be a bit skeptical.
Swo12bv - December 3, 2009
After the 2008 season, Saito chose not to have TJ surgery because of his age, even though it would have been medically beneficial for his partially-torn elbow ligament. Instead, he had platelets injected into his ligament in a fairly unorthodox procedure.
Yakker - December 3, 2009
Huh…interesting, thanks.
Smoltz's Beard - December 3, 2009
And he pitched through all of 2009 with it.
So apparently he can still pitch, but maybe not as well. Maybe it will be better with another off-season to heal a bit. Maybe it is just another year worse. He is a huge injury risk, but relatively cheap and even his numbers last year weren’t too bad. I’ll take his last year numbers at this price—-yeah, the FIP was a bit high, but that was in the AL East and a small park, too.
cavebird - December 3, 2009
Yes, he pitched, but with a severely dropping K rate, a rising BB rate, and an extraordinarily lucky LOB%, I really don’t see the value for $3M, let alone $5M.
And don’t forget that he was very sheltered by the Sox. He rarely pitched on back-to-back nights, was given low leverage innings, and still only gave them 50 or so IPs.
Yakker - December 3, 2009
but if our medical staff thought that was a problem...
and I’d consider them kind of experts on the issue or at least they better be if we’re signing him. But if they’re ok with it, why shouldn’t we be ok?
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
Your optimism on this particular issue has no place on this site.
Smoltz's Beard - December 3, 2009
Just sayin is all...
if he really has a tear in his elbow, why would our medical staff approve him?
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
He had a tear, and tears don’t magically heal. Guys pitch with partially-torn ligaments from time to time.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
Not what I'm saying...
given that as true, does it mean teams will sign multi-million dollar deals to people with tears? That their medical staff will approve and pass the physical? Not mid season mind you, but in a free agent signing. I’d consider them two different situations.
Mr. Sanchez - December 4, 2009
It’s a known and disclosed injury, so I’m not sure it would necessarily rise to the level where the staff would nix the deal, as opposed to making Wren and Co. aware of the risk.
I am not a doctor, so I have no idea. But the fact that most pitchers with this condition require TJ surgery and Saito opted against it scares me. The fact that the Red Sox rarely allowed him to pitch-back-to-back nights also scares me. Finally, the fact that Saito was far less effective in 2009 than in his pre-tear seasons really scares me.
Add all of it up, and to me this is a $3-5M risk that Wren probably didn’t need to take.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
True
Injuries are a concern, but there is a lot of insurance depth in Gwinnett. I am a Wren believer
HansonManCrush - December 3, 2009 via mobile
I approve of this move.
ChrisK562 - December 3, 2009
I really like that Wren isn’t waiting around for the Winter Meetings to start where some of these guy’s prices could have went up. I really like Wagner as our closer for the simple reason that he has been closing for a long time and I just trust him more than I trusted Soriano or Gonzalez last year. Saito is an underrated player who we got fairly cheap. I think both these guys are going to be a reliable force at the back of the bullpen.
We still have the workhorse Moylan and don’t forget about Proctor. If both are healthy they can pitch a lot of games and give Wagner and Saito days off that Soriano and Gonzalez were pitching last year.
With the pace that Wren is moving we should have a bat by the end of the Winter Meetings. I still have doubts that we can get anything useful for Lowe but you never know.
jack dein - December 3, 2009
now sign delgado to play first, let matty play left, keep all 6 starters and put KK in the pen in case someone goes down with an injury…
Hcgadawgs - December 3, 2009
If we keep all the starters...
…there won’t be any money to sign Delgado. We just spent the money we saved from Soriano and Gonzo on the bullpen. You also don’t mention who plays right, so I will assume you expect Heyward to start the season in Atlanta.
cavebird - December 3, 2009
Saito just signed according to Bowman
http://markbowman.mlblogs.com/
Mildly rejoice.
Cracker! - December 3, 2009
I don’t live anywhere near the Atlanta area but was wondering if there was anywhere that I could watch the news conference.
jack dein - December 3, 2009
mlb.com might have it
Slee - December 3, 2009
thanks
jack dein - December 3, 2009
Link for LIVE Press Confernce
http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?topic_id=6261176
Slee - December 3, 2009
i take it
the press conference hasn’t started yet?
jraypritch - December 3, 2009
I guess not...
Made sure to be free at 4:30 and now I’m just waiting
award6 - December 3, 2009
I liked the pun…
Gage23 - December 3, 2009
i wonder who Wren is going to sign tomorrow….
heap16 - December 3, 2009
Man. I like the aggressiveness by Wren.
The holes are still obvious in the outfield and at first. However, this might be the best pitching staff the Braves have had in a long, long time.
kalesi - December 3, 2009
Press conference has started
jraypritch - December 3, 2009
he looks pumped
bravesguy311 - December 3, 2009
Bobby:
“We are way ahead of the game before even going to the winter meetings” I like the sound of that!
jraypritch - December 3, 2009
you hear that?
Bobby Cox- “Frank is workin on something else that will help us score a bunch more runs”
bravesguy311 - December 3, 2009
I like what I hear.
FineHamAbounds - December 3, 2009
Anybody care to wager? Fielder? A-Gon? Cameron?
J-Freak - December 3, 2009
I'll make two wagers
First, Bowman will be proven wrong about Byrd being on our radar.
Second, Cameron will be our main target.
scstrato - December 3, 2009
I love both of those. Byrd is bad news, I’ve been pining for Cameron for weeks.
J-Freak - December 3, 2009
If the Braves get Byrd I’m quitting. I don’t know what I’m quitting but I am.
alligatorimpersonator - December 3, 2009
I said in another thread that if he signed Roachie and Cameron I’d mail him a Christmas present, but if he signs Byrd I’m sending him a FedEx special full of dogshit. It is imperative that we LEARN from the GA debacle, not repeat it.
J-Freak - December 4, 2009
Ok ok, so it was further down in THIS thread that I said that. o well.
J-Freak - December 4, 2009
haha
send him a turd for Byrd
alligatorimpersonator - December 5, 2009
Frank Wren is the man.
You’re crazy if you dont like what this man has done to improve the Braves in his 3 year tenure.
Scott Coleman - December 3, 2009 via mobile
Agreed
this time last year i was very concerned about our new GM (remember the Peavy, AJ, Furcal?), but since then he has made good move after good move.
you also get the sense this year that he knows he better get a good team together for Bobby’s last year
Slee - December 3, 2009
combine that start...
with his Orioles tenure, and yeah I was concerned too. But he’s been pretty solid since I’d say.
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
What I amazed at is that you can probably count on one hand the number of off-season moves made by all other major league clubs combined to this point. And the braves have made… what? At least 4 signings already? Clearly seems to be a move afoot to shop early and take the best merchandise available.
[That said: there will likely be a patience period coming in which we wait for teams to get desperate to buy starting pitching from Atlanta.]
carpengui - December 3, 2009
SAITO!
I’m just glad he and Miyagi made up in the end…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKv8ISloqjg&feature=related
hippybustins - December 3, 2009
I like how swift we are moving to be at least as good as last year. At this rate Lowe will get us a bat before Christmas
rocket8188 - December 3, 2009
Frank Wren is a smart man. I like having these two guys at the back of the pen, but I don’t like that we are spending $10M on them…I hope they pan out!
I will just trust that FW knows what he is doing.
I am really anxious about the other deal he is working on…
justincredubil02 - December 3, 2009
You and me both. Crossing my fingers its Cameron and/or Fielder/A-Gon.
J-Freak - December 3, 2009
I would prefer Cameron and LaRoche because they wouldn’t cost us JJ or Vaz or Freeman…but, I don’t think JJ or Freeman would be too much to pay for Fielder/A-Gon…Vaz is another story – I think we should lock him up for 3-4 years.
justincredubil02 - December 3, 2009
I’d actually go along with that 100%. I’ve been a Roachie fan since his first tour, and I was a little miffed that it seems they’re not interested at all in bringing him back unless its at an unreasonable discount. Locking up Vaz goes withour saying.
I wouldn’t give up JJ for those guys, but if, looking at future payrolls, you’d have room to extend Fielder or A-Gon, I could stomach parting with Freeman. My greatest fear in a deal like that has been it’ll cost us Freeman and then the big-timer we get will walk, leaving us with no one, not even a year-away prospect, to man the sack, so we’d have to be sure. But if he locks up Cameron and Roachie, I’ll mail him a Christmas present. I’ll be elated.
J-Freak - December 3, 2009
I'll take JJ over JV any day...
age.
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
I get that, but JJ would be the more valuable trade piece if we want to land a big boppe like those mentioned above. It is doubtful that either team (Padres or Brewers) could take on a 12M salary for only 1 year of productin and be willing to give up their best hitter for that pitcher.
justincredubil02 - December 3, 2009
...
or Miguel Cabrera.
Yakker - December 3, 2009
I don’t know why, but he doesn’t excite me as much as A-Gon or Prince…maybe I am just ignorant, but he just doesn’t tickle my pickle.
justincredubil02 - December 3, 2009
His numbers excite the hell out of me, but his conduct and price tag certainly don’t. I’ll pass, unless Detroit eats at least half of that contract.
J-Freak - December 3, 2009
I could give two shits about his conduct, but you’re definitely right about the contract. But that grin Cox had on his face made me think Wren may have something up his sleeve in trying to get Detroit to cover a big portion of Miggy’s contract.
Yakker - December 3, 2009
That would make sense, we do have a knack for fleecing Detroit. :)
J-Freak - December 3, 2009
OK, I probably am going to regret this as soon as I’m finished, but…
Maybe something like Migs and $5M/year for Cole and Freeman?
Somebody call the janitor, I think we need a cleanup over here…
Yakker - December 3, 2009
If we add Cabrera...
Lowe’s gotta go. No way we can afford both, with the other deals on the roster.
Mr. Sanchez - December 3, 2009
Yeah, natch.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
Miguel Cabrera is a better hitter than just about anyone in major league baseball not named Albert.
Yakker - December 3, 2009
or Mauer
but #3 out of what, 600?, is not too bad. Right?
scstrato - December 3, 2009
Nope, not too damn bad.
Yakker - December 3, 2009
or Hanley
or, based on last year, Zorbist.
apoxonbothyourhouses - December 4, 2009
Well, I may get slaughtered for this, but I think Cabrera’s a better pure hitter than Hanley.
And I’m not talking about one year ups or downs like Zobrist. Miguel Cabrera is a damn fine hitter, who does it all, year in and year out. Great batting eye, prodigious power, and awesome contact skills.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
You’re an idiot.
Smoltz's Beard - December 4, 2009
So, have we found our “Adam Dunn”?
:)
I have nothing against him, and I think he is a fantastic player and would really like to have him in the lineup…but, for some reason (maybe the price?) I would rather have A-Gon or Fielder.
I think any of those 3 is highly unlikely though.
justincredubil02 - December 4, 2009
Adrian Gonzalez isn’t even in the same league as Cabrera, but I could definitely get excited for Prince.
Smoltz's Beard - December 4, 2009
Well, I know A-Gon is in the National League and Cabrera is in the American League…
:)
justincredubil02 - December 4, 2009
Good to see you’ve still got that rapist wit.
Smoltz's Beard - December 4, 2009
En guard!
justincredubil02 - December 4, 2009
“dropped her off at the airport, sparks flew, emotions ran high…… She even talked to me”
bravesguy311 - December 4, 2009
I believe it’s “she touched my leg!”
Smoltz's Beard - December 4, 2009
"it moved"
Mr. Sanchez - December 4, 2009
Diff part..
Harry: Yesterday was one of the greatest days of my life. Mary and I went skiing, we made a snowman, she touched my leg…
Lloyd: Okay, Kill Him!
bravesguy311 - December 5, 2009
You’re completely right. Nice job.
Smoltz's Beard - December 5, 2009
But AG has two advantages Cabrera doesn't...
1) that monster contract
2) potential off the field issues
Mr. Sanchez - December 4, 2009
I’m speaking strictly about on field performance.
Smoltz's Beard - December 4, 2009
well then Cabrera...
is right behind Pujols, and easily among the best right handed hitters in baseball. Always reminded me of Manny Ramirez for some reason, maybe the pudginess.
Mr. Sanchez - December 4, 2009
Before you came back (and welcome back, BTW), I was pitching a Fielder for Jurrjens deal.
MIL needs pitching and has hitting to deal. They’re unlikely to be able to extend Prince past 2011, and he’s probably going to make around $25M in the next two years. Jurrjens, meanwhile, is a solid pitcher who comes cheap and has nice flashy ERA numbers to mask his average K rates.
We’d have to move Lowe in a separate deal to save some money, which would mean somebody like Duchscherer or Wolf as our 5th starter.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
I am also in favor of trading JJ if it means we can get a bat of any significance in return. But, I don’t like trading JJ AND Lowe. That takes us from the best rotation in the majors to one of several other rotations.
If someone goes down (Vaz, Huddy, etc) we would be screwed.
Sure, we have Medlen and even old Jo-Jo for emergency starts, but gosh, that is a big drop off from JJ and Lowe.
justincredubil02 - December 4, 2009
I agree that trading away both Lowe and JJ is the scariest part of this scenario. However, I don’t think there’s any way to trade for a bat without picking up some salary. And that means Lowe has to go. The other choice would be to sign a lower-quality (yet still good) bat on the free agent market, but Wren would still probably have to move Lowe.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
You really think the one year of Prince is worth the several below market value years of JJ? Not to mention having to find a suitor for Lowe as well…
But damn if Prince wouldn’t look good in a Braves uniform.
Smoltz's Beard - December 4, 2009
As Swo pointed out
Fielder is under team control for 2 years, not one as I originally thought. Still, I personally wouldn’t give up JJ for just two years of Prince.
scstrato - December 4, 2009
2 years definitely makes it more of an even swap, but despite all the numbers I’m still having a weird gut feeling that I would still prefer JJ.
Smoltz's Beard - December 4, 2009
the second year would be arbitration and he will most likely shatter the record for abr nbr int he 18M range IMHO
so the added year of control isnt that great
Swo12bv - December 5, 2009
I was projecting $15M, which would be nearly a 40% increase on his 2010 salary of $11M, but perhaps he’d get $18M. There definitely is some risk there.
Yakker - December 6, 2009
Two years, and yes, it’s closer than you think. Probably a win for Milwaukee if Jurrjens can keep posting 4 WARs, but I don’t think he can, and the marginal value of adding Fielder’s 5.5 WAR bat for the next two years could be the difference-maker for the Braves playoff runs.
Wren probably will deal Lowe regardless.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
I guess what it really comes down to is who we would get to replace them at their respective positions, but at that point the entire situation can become quite convoluted.
Smoltz's Beard - December 4, 2009
Right. I think it’s much easier for the Braves to find (or develop) another good starter than it is for them to find (or develop) a power-hitting 1B who’s worth 5-6 wins over replacement.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
Good point.
Smoltz's Beard - December 4, 2009
I do. In a sense, JJ has pitched above his head for 2 years (especially this past year). Can he be expected to outperform his perifs every year?
I think JJ is in line for some sort of decline, and like Yakker said below me (no, not “blow me”), Prince could be the difference between an Atlanta playoff run and an Atlanta WS.
justincredubil02 - December 4, 2009
While I do agree that JJ has been pitching over his head (I’m pretty sure I was driving the bus that proclaimed JV was much better suited as our #2 at the beginning of last season), I feel like giving Prince an imaginary edge b/c of a possible playoff run isn’t the best course of action.
With that being said (anyone hear watch Curb?), if we really were planning on “going for it” for Bobby’s last year it would certainly be a great move to make.
Smoltz's Beard - December 4, 2009
Well, it’s not so much giving Prince an imaginary edge, it’s that 6 WAR for 2010 and 2011 has more value to a marginal playoff team than a rebuilding one, whether that 6 WAR comes from a hitter or a pitcher. Those extra 2-3 wins now could make a difference in whether the Braves make the playoffs, and thus are worth more than just any old win.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
Another good point.
Smoltz's Beard - December 4, 2009
I’m on fire today. Amazing how cogent I can be when I “work from home.”
Yakker - December 4, 2009
Fuck, I’m rusty. Getting pwned left and right…
Smoltz's Beard - December 4, 2009
spark a teixiera or kj debate
they’ll get you nice a warmed up
Swo12bv - December 5, 2009
Think I’ll pass on that.
Smoltz's Beard - December 5, 2009
Curb
like Curb your Enthusiasm? Indeed, sir. My quote is a direct Larry David quote.
alligatorimpersonator - December 5, 2009
You know…your quote sounded familiar but I couldn’t quite put my finger on it. That guy is hilarious.
Smoltz's Beard - December 6, 2009
I know you already know this
but let’s lay it out on the table. Fielder vs. Agon vs. Miggy
Fielder:
Signed for 10.5 mil for 2010, FA in 2011. In order to acquire this guy I predict it would take Vazquez and one other fairly highly touted prospect (at least). Their salaries are similar but due to Age I think Fielder is the more valuable commodity.
Pro’s: Fielder mashes, end of story. We could certainly undertake the salary swap and recover from the prospect loss. It is even arguable that we could endure the drop in production from Vaz to Lowe.
Con’s: Fielder is an FA in 2011 so it would be a one year rental. Vazquez appears happy in Atlanta and would likely sign a fairly affordable extension to stay here (at least that’s my opinion).
Hold-up(s): FW, and many of us here as well, would rather move Lowe and that market will likely take a long time to generate. Milwaukee would be opening up a significant hole in their offense in order to plug one of many holes in their rotation.
Likelihood (my opinion): Slim to none
Agon:
Signed for 10.25 mil through 2011 (4.75 in ‘10 and 5.5 in ’11), hits FA 2012. This guy would be an absolute monster playing anywhere outside of Petco. One of the best defensive 1b’s in the game and signed for VERY cheap. It would take at least our top 5 prospects to land this guy (including Heyward).
Pro’s: Cheap, elite production for at least 2 years.
Con’s: Cost to acquire in prospects. Not right handed.
Hold-up’s: The Padres have absolutely no reason to trade him. The Braves will not want to move Heyward.
Likelihood (my opinion): No Chance!
Miggy:
Signed for 6 years 126 mil (10:$20M, 11:$20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M, 15:$22M). Very young (only 26 years old) premiere bat. Questionable defensively, even at 1b, and even more questionable off the field. The issue here is “THE” contract. In order to make him palatable to Atlanta, Detroit would likely have to eat 24 to 30 million (4/5 mil per year). In order for Detroit to do this the haul in trade would have to be ridiculous (again, my opinion). Freeman and Schafer would have to be in the package along with at least 2 or 3 of our top pitching prospects. Even then it’s questionable whether this deal could get done.
Pro’s: Top 5 offensive player, period. Right handed. Would fit “Like a Glove-uh” right in between Chipper and Heap.
Con’s: Contract, Contract, CONTRACT. Cost in prospects to acquire along with salary relief.
Hold-up’s: Did I say Contract already? Deals that get as convoluted as this one could usually don’t get done.
Likelihood (my opinion): Slim to none
My point here is, as much as we would all like to dream, it’s so far fetched to think we would land any of these guys it’s not really worth talking about.
scstrato - December 4, 2009
i thought FIelder has a 10.5M contract for 2010 and is arb eligible in 2011… but i could be mistaken
Swo12bv - December 4, 2009
Oops
I do believe you are correct. … now where’s that edit button ….
scstrato - December 4, 2009
Good break-down. I agree with the analysis, but for one thing: I don’t think that it would require Heyward to land A-Gon. It would cost an arm and a leg in terms of prospect talent, but I am pretty sure Heyward would not have to be included.
I am not sure how much different this new guy is than Towers, but I can’t imagine him being even more difficult to deal with.
I don’t know what it would take to get A-Gon, but I am pretty sure that whatever that price is, it will be too much for FW to pull the trigger.
I agree that all of these guys have a slim-to-no chance of wearing a tomahawk anytime soon.
justincredubil02 - December 4, 2009
New guy is Jed Hoyer from Boston, who will be much harder to deal with in the sense that he knows his shit, but easier in that he won’t overvalue his guys the way KT did.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
Solid breakdown.
Smoltz's Beard - December 4, 2009
Agreed. As much as we’d like to dream about one of the big 3 at 1B in 2010, Nick the Stick or Glaus are probably more likely.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
I read today that Hawpe is going to be playing 1B some this year…
Other rumors from today have the Nats talking a trade for Vaz…if that happens, Dunn had better be one of a couple of players coming to Atl.
justincredubil02 - December 4, 2009
Nah...
it’ll be Zimmerman.
Mr. Sanchez - December 4, 2009
I just messed myself.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
Hawpe’s probably a one-year rental at $7.5M, and I’m not sure his bat would play well outside of CO.
Pass.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
I would love Swisher.
Smoltz's Beard - December 4, 2009
I’d be fine with that, although his 1B defense is a little shaky.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
If defense is an issue, would you take Swisher or LaRoche? I gotta go Swish 10 times out of 10.
Smoltz's Beard - December 4, 2009
Depends. I think LaRoche is probably a better defender at 1B, but it’s hard to know since UZR for 1Bs doesn’t tell the whole story. Swisher is certainly more athletic, but I’d have to see him play more 1B to be sure. He doesn’t have the height or reach of LaRoche, which is a definite liability at 1B.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
All bias aside, Roachie is better.
alligatorimpersonator - December 5, 2009
On 1B defense, I’d probably agree with this.
Yakker - December 6, 2009
I was kind of surprised to look at how UZR rates both of them…much closer than I expected.
Are the other metrics as unkind to LaRoche?
Smoltz's Beard - December 6, 2009
I too was surprised to see how poorly Swish graded out. I remember LaRoche’s low UZRs from the trade deadline discussions we had on here.
Not sure if Dewan has 2010 yet.
Yakker - December 6, 2009
Cabrera’s under team control through 2016.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
Unless I'm missing something
Cabrera is a free agent in 2016. He signed an 8 year $152.3 mil contract before the ’08 season (or at least it included the ’08 season).
scstrato - December 4, 2009
My bad, you’re right. In any event, under team control much longer than Fielder or A-Gon.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
Due to that contract...
My bad, you’re right. In any event,
under team controlin control of a team much longer than Fielder or A-Gon.Fixed.
justincredubil02 - December 4, 2009
LOL
Nice.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
But you can resign either for longer...
and likely at a little less per.
Mr. Sanchez - December 4, 2009
Doubt it. Assuming the Tigers are kicking in around $5M/per (only way the deal would make sense for ATL), I don’t think either Fielder or A-Gon will sign long term deals for $10-12M. Fielder’s getting $11M right now, and he hasn’t even hit his third arb year yet!
Yakker - December 4, 2009
How does 20+ - 5 = 10-12?
But I was meaning on the whole, not if the Tigers were paying part of it. That would change the math. On the whole, I just don’t think AGon or Fielder sign for 20+ per, as I think deals that size become much less common going forward.
Mr. Sanchez - December 4, 2009
Jeebus. You’re right. Cabrera makes $20M+ for the next 6 years. I don’t know why I thought it was more like $14-$16M per perhaps with some late escalators.
Still, I don’t think A-Gon or Fielder will sign for less than $15M/per, but I could be wrong about that. One nice thing about Cabrera is that he’d be locked up, so there would be no concern about having someone outbid you for A-Gon or Prince in the FA market.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
But if you lost AGon or Prince...
you’d recoup draft picks, and depending on if Freeman had to be included, you’d have an in house replacement.
Also, I’d agree that neither will sign for less than 15, and probably more like 18 per, in two years.
Mr. Sanchez - December 4, 2009
I’m not sure anyone in-house could be considered a replacement for big-time quality hitters like Fielder or A-Gon.
And while you’re right that if ATL offered arb in 2 years and if the player declined it, and if the team ultimately signing them didn’t have a protected pick that the Braves would get 2 picks (1 supplemental if protected), you’d have to give up at least a prospect or two (perhaps more) to land the guy in the first place. Moreover, guys with 1-2 years experience in pro ball are less risky (and usually cost less, since the signing bonuses have already been paid) than draft picks.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
Fair Warning - I'm whipping it out
You know, after typing all that up earlier and having spent some time thinking about it, I’m starting to warm up to a Cabrera deal. Granted it could completely deplete our minor leagues but that’s what happens when you acquire one of the 5th best hitters in the league who is still only 26 years old.
Call Detroit, tell them they’ll need to pony up 24 mil and offer up any 4 of the following:
Schafer
Freeman
Rohrbough
Medlen
DeVall
Osuna
Redmond
KJ
JoJo
That would reduce Miggy’s salaries to 10:$16M, 11:$16M, 12:$17M, 13:$17M, 14:$18M, 15:$18M, which is very reasonable in my opinion. It saves Detroit over $102M and we get our cleanup hitter. We would obviously have to dump Lowe on the first taker and I doubt there would be $‘s left to extend JV (though maybe). It would not improve our defense but by God we’d score some runs.
McLouth
Yunie
Chipper
Miggy
Heap
Diaz
Church/Heyward
Prado
/shakes uncontrollably while making funny faces
scstrato - December 4, 2009
They’d probably take Schafer, Freeman, Medlen and Osuna, don’t you think? Ouch.
If he’s giving up that much talent, Wren would probably want more $$ thrown in, say something to get the total Braves financial responsibility to $90M/6, or $15M/year.
Yakker - December 4, 2009
I love all four of those guys to death, but to get a player like Miguel Cabrera, it might might worth it.
cbwilk - December 4, 2009
Cabrera and around $6M a year. Yeah, it would hurt, but it’d be worth it.
Yakker - December 6, 2009
The money figures for both relievers are questionable
But I do like how Wren is being more aggressive this offseason and not really waiting for other teams to make serious offers.
Now how f’ed up would it be if Soriano and/or Gonzalez accept arbitration? I know it’s unlikely, but it’s still possible.
SmithnCompany - December 3, 2009
trade JJ?: Nuts!
FW wisely would not trade a young #2 with potential #1 ceiling for a
position player. won’t happen. Braves worked too hard and long to
build a new starting nucleus. Lowe is expendable yet this is counter-weighted
by his age, salary and what appears to be decline.
some of the others listed as tradeable I would question, as B’s are not likely
to deplete the top tier very much at this juncture re medlen, kimbrel, vasquez,
gearrin, or position players freeman, schaefer. just one old sailor’s take.
sealift67 - December 4, 2009
JJ does not have a #1 ceiling.
Smoltz's Beard - December 5, 2009
he's pitched at or near #1 level the last two years....
whether that is the “true” level of his talent or not, he has certainly produced there the last two seasons.
Mr. Sanchez - December 5, 2009
JJ is untouchable IMO
he’s so cheap. He’s not going anywhere.
alligatorimpersonator - December 5, 2009
He has gotten a bit lucky, based on the perifs.
justincredubil02 - December 5, 2009
Amongst all qualified starters
’#54 in k/9
’#57 in bb/9
’#55 in k/bb
’#11 in hr/9
’#16 in avg against
’#19 in whip
’#10 lowest BABIP (.273)
’#6 in ERA
’#23 in FIP
That’s pretty damn close but not what I call #1 level.
scstrato - December 5, 2009
ERA is the big one for me...
he could pitch deep, allowing very few runs. He got hosed by poor run production this year.
Mr. Sanchez - December 6, 2009
He doesn’t miss enough bats, and walks too many people. Not a true ace and probably never will be. That doesn’t mean he isn’t damn good though.
Smoltz's Beard - December 6, 2009
Runs allowed?
the idea of a Smoltz like #1 aside, he shut teams down the last two years, and was as good as any pitcher in the NL. Who knows if he’ll keep it up, just saying there are very few pitchers I’d trade their last two years for JJ’s.
Mr. Sanchez - December 6, 2009
I’m not arguing that he isn’t good, but he simply only has a #2 ceiling.
Smoltz's Beard - December 6, 2009
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