As part of what will hopefully be a series of Q&A's with several of the top prospect gurus around baseball, we begin with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. Kevin released his list of the top-11 Braves prospects in early November of last year. This Q&A is based on that ranking as well as other questions about the prospects in our system. If you're a regular reader here you'll know that I reference Goldstein all the time. He's one of the few who publish regular prospect reports online throughout the year, and he's usually got a detailed and original take on what a prospect's future might be.
This is the third year that Kevin has been gracious enough to do a Q&A with Talking Chop, and every year his answers shed added light on the state of the Braves minor league system. If you'd like to review the Q&As from previous years, here is 2008 and 2007.
Q: You listed Jason Heyward as the number-one Braves prospect, but that was before Tommy Hanson absolutely carved up the AFL. Is there any desire, after that performance by Hanson, to change that ranking and list him number-one?
A: I think more accurately, it was written during Hanson's AFL dominance, and I was talking to multiple scouts in Arizona to make sure I could provide the most up-to-date analysis of him. So the answer is no, I wouldn't flip the two. That said, if you'd want to claim that the two should be flipped, I'd accept the argument. They're very close. I can't release the Top 100 yet, but I will say that Hanson is only three spots behind Heyward.
Q: Give us a comparable player to Freddie Freeman. Could he and Heyward move as fast through the system as Francoeur and McCann did?
A: You know, I'm just not a big fan of comps unless they are obvious, and in Freeman's case I don't have one. You could reel off any of a number of big, slugging first baseman and you wouldn't be totally wrong, but none of them really ring perfect for me. I'm not sure they'll move him as fast as Francoeur and McCann, but I'd also say that I think Francoeur was rushed through the system too fast, and that's one of the reasons things haven't worked out as he was never forced to temper his approach.
Q: The 2008 draft for the Braves gave them so many young talented pitchers. Is this the best draft for pitching that the Braves have ever had? How do the likes of DeVall, Stovall, Spruill, and Thompson, compare to the 2006 draft of Rasmus, Evarts, Locke, and Rodgers?
A: I think best ever is way too strong. You list eight players there, and none of them are in my Top 11. Not that they're not prospects, but none of them are special.
Q: Will Cole Rohrbough be the 2009 left-handed version of Tommy Hanson? Does Rohrbough have as high a ceiling as Hanson?
A: Rohrbough is the kind of guy who is certainly capable of a breakout season. The stuff is there for one, but that doesn't guarantee anything. I think Teheran could be that guy as well.
Q: Who is better and why, Joey Devine or Craig Kimbrel?
A: Devine, and it's not even close. You have one guy who dominated at low levels after signing, and one guy who dominated in the big leagues last year. Is it even close?
Q: Other people have rated Jeff Locke much higher than you have him. What makes you list him below guys like Medlen, Hicks, and Delgado?
A: In general, scouts liked him, but they didn't love him. His command allows his stuff to play up, and I would classify him as having more certainty than a guy like Delgado, but less of a ceiling.
Q: Who is better and why, Randall Delgado or Julio Teheran?
A: I have Teheran No. 6 and Delgado No. 9, so there you go. I think their stuff is actually quite similar overall, but Teheran has better command and smoother mechanics.
Q: Does Jordan Schafer have what it takes to be an everyday player in the major leagues right now? Who do you think will ultimately be a more valuable center fielder, Schafer or Gorkys Hernandez?
A: Right now? It's close. If he's not ready, he's certainly almost so and will likely have the job by the end of the season. I have him ranked ahead of Hernandez because his skill set is far more well-rounded.
Q: Is Tommy Hanson ready to be an everyday major league rotation regular? Who does Hanson remind you of as a pitcher?
A: Yes, I really do think he's ready, and I think he'll be pretty damn good right away. I'm not sure the Braves necessarily agree with that sentiment, and he'll probably start the year in Triple-A unless he really dominates this spring and wins the No. 5 job. As far as a comp goes, I go back to what I said earlier about them, where I avoid them when they're not obvious. Some within the Braves organization see a bit of John Smoltz in him, with all due respect there of course.
Q: What is the biggest strength of the Braves minor league system? The biggest weakness?
A: I think their biggest strength, as per usual, is pitching, especially when it comes to depth. There are just so many live arms in this system. If there's a spot where they are a bit weak, it's middle infield.
Many thanks to Kevin for agreeing to this 10 question e-mail interview. I thoroughly enjoyed his answers as I hope you did, I especially like his reality check answer on a guy like Jeff Locke.
0 recs | 39 comments
Joey Devine
This is starting to piss me off more than the Neftali Feliz move. I never understood why we dealt Devine so far below his value, and with Jamie Richmond thrown in to boot. For a partial season of a marginal CF and cash.
You don’t trade high-ceiling talent like Devine (who was a first-round pick) for filler and cash relief.
TradeAndruw - January 20, 2009
I think Devine was a guy who just needed a fresh start in a new organization. Devine pitched very well in the minors but I suspect Cox and McDowell were running out of patience with him. Kotsay wasn’t a bad player for us and he did bring back a young, high-upside bat in Sumoza. Richmond has no value other than as an emergency starter who probably wont receive more than a cup of coffee at the big league level.
jeg - January 20, 2009
Bobby Cox
We dealt Devine because he was called up during his first season as a pro and struggled, and all the potential in the world won’t get you into Bobby’s good graces after that.
Lennox - January 20, 2009
To be fair, Kotsay isn’t who I’d call marginal. Anderson is marginal. The culture last year, also, was that we wanted to throw out all the stops and WIN. It was Tex’s last year here, we had a veteran pitching staff, and Chipper + Bobby weren’t getting any younger. Questionable move, sure, but I can see where the organization was coming from.
soup du jour - January 20, 2009
Eh...
Kotsay isn’t much better than “marginal.” Going into 2008, he was coming off three seasons with WARP numbers of 1.7, .7, and -.9. His defense in center is horrendous at this point in his career. Anderson certainly isn’t the dog’s bollocks, but if we simply look at their numbers going into 2008, it would be hard to make a case that Kotsay was going to be more valuable than he and Joey Devine.
If we look back with knowledge of how their 2008 years ended up, this trade looks quite poor. Anderson, despite less playing time, was more valuable to the Braves than Kotsay (largely due to his superior defense and a lucky BABIP) and Devine had an outstanding year with the A’s.
Atlanta’s handling of Devine has been an annoyance to me ever since he was drafted a few years ago. He was never allowed to settle in one place for more than a month at a time and made his debut in the majors despite clearly being unprepared. It was, in my opinion, a textbook example of how not to handle a prospect.
BraveBronco0121 - January 20, 2009
Josh Anderson is no better than scrap metal.
bigjoe - January 20, 2009
so we can melt him down and turn him into something worthwhile?
Swo12bv - January 21, 2009
Can't say you're wrong Joe...
but Kotsay is hardly better.
BraveBronco0121 - January 21, 2009
VETERAN PRESENCE
bigjoe - January 21, 2009
Hey, scrap metal is pretty valuable nowdays…
VegasAces - January 21, 2009
Devine trade still pisses me off as well…
Smoltz's Beard - January 21, 2009
Thanks, gondeee.
mattdiaz4life - January 20, 2009
Francoeur is setting himself up to be a non-tender candidate next year.
beeniez - January 21, 2009
If we had someone to replace him, it would be fantastic.
bigjoe - January 21, 2009
Duh…. Heyward will be ready by this August.
Swo12bv - January 21, 2009
Don't be an idiot
everybody knows Teyheyran will be the first to get the call this year!!!
scstrato - January 21, 2009
NO YOUR ALL WRONG CODY JOHNSON 40+ HR BANK ON IT
BraveBronco0121 - January 21, 2009
but i actually beleive that… he could easily hit 40 HR… he would stike out 300 times and bat 175… but he could hit 40 HR by accident
Swo12bv - January 21, 2009
True dat.
BraveBronco0121 - January 21, 2009
Cole Rohrbough vs Jeff Locke
There are so many comparisons with these guys, both are strikeout lefties, have an injury history, good stuff, and the same three pitches, a fastball/curve/change combo. There are also a few differences that make Rohrbough the better/different prospect of these two mirror images. Both fastballs are about the same, ~92-94 with late movement. Cole’s curve however devastating when he can avoid flattening it out while Jeff’s curve is merely very good and developing. Both guy’s changes are developing but Cole’s is much more along and can almost be a plus pitch. I don’t know much about Rohrbough’s control other than its pretty good. Locke will throw strikes and keep the ball down but has trouble locating his pitches in the zone sometimes.
These are just my ametuer observations and prospect book findings, but they kind of reveal why Rohrbough is thought of as a special TOR prospect and Locke is merely (not said lightly) a MOR workhorse prospect.
bbxxj - January 21, 2009
When has Locke been hurt? I don’t recall him missing any significant time to injury.
Both these guys are only 21 coming into this season and both come from cold weather areas (Rohrbough from Oregon and Locke from New Hampshire) meaning they didn’t play a ton as amateurs, so I think they’ve got a ton of room to grow. Personally, I think Locke will end up being the better of the two, but that’s just my opinion and I don’t really have anything other than a gut feeling to back it up. I’d say betting on either one is a good idea, they’re both tough competitors (Rohrbough showed that by working back and through his ankle injury) and love to play.
cbwilk - January 21, 2009
Agreed about Locke
I’ve never been that impressed with Rorhbough, and I’ve watched him pitch in person several times. I’ve seen Locke a lot as well, and (I’ve said this before) Locke was let down by the defense behind him more times than I could count last year. I understand there’s a lot to be said about a pitcher who can hold things together when the defense takes the night off, but there wouldn’t have been enough band aids in the trainer’s kit for him to do that (like that little metaphor?). Locke had Michael Fisher, Chad Lundahl, Adam Coe, and Cody Johnson behind him many nights and paid the price for it. Maybe Locke put the ball in play more often than Rorhbough, I don’t know, but if Jeff had Escobar, Kelly, and Chipper backing him up, things would have been much different.
Not saying Rohrbough won’t be good – I just have a gut feeling that Locke will be better in the long run.
secondbass - January 21, 2009
Yeah Locke keeps the ball down which I love but he definitely needs a good defense behind him. From what ive read/seen, Rohr’s curve is nasty but Locke’s is just really good. They are both 21yr old prospects so obviously they both could be great or busts or somewhere in between.
bbxxj - January 21, 2009
thanks for putting this up
but there really are some awful questions in here. who is better joey devine or craig kimbrel? did you ever expect a different answer? Delgado or Teheran, really?
son.of.sourman - January 21, 2009
I appreciated the Devine / Kimbrel question, but I took it as comparing the two as prospects, not a ‘right now’ kind of question – maybe I’m wrong? Kimbrel gets a lot of hype here, maybe deservedly so, but he hasn’t really been in the system long enough, in my opinion, to have been hailed as the future closer. I’d like to see a little more time in the minors, and then compare him to Devine.
secondbass - January 21, 2009
Right, I was going for an “as prospects” comparison between Devine and Kimbrel, perhaps I should have phrased it differently. I think the Delgado or Teheran was a good lead in to how well Delgado did this year vs. the hype that still is Teheran. I was also hoping a closer comparison between the two would be drawn, which it was.
gondeee - January 21, 2009
I'll say.
That last comment about middle infield makes me all the more glad we didn’t deal Yunel or KJ. They are both good, cheap players who can be our infield for years.
Perrinbar - January 21, 2009
+1
My thoughts exactly. I also strongly believe that we’ll try and use our first pick this year to get a highly rated shortstop prospect. There’s at least one on the board, and if he falls to us that could be a Heyward-like coup.
gondeee - January 21, 2009
thanks Gondee..
coachg3 - January 21, 2009
Good stuff. I enjoy Kevin Goldstein quite a bit.
Smoltz's Beard - January 21, 2009
FYI
I should have John Sickels, Bill Ballew, and Keith Law doing Q&As in the next couple of weeks. And maybe a couple more.
gondeee - January 21, 2009
KEITH LAW! Awwwwwwwwwwwwwwesome
bigjoe - January 21, 2009
Leave Tommy Hanson in the minors?
Two other strong reasons:
1. It’ll be easier to potentially limit pitch count/innings pitched over the course of the year by keeping him in the minors, which will allow him to “develop” rather than “win.”
2. It’ll likely prevent Super 2 arbitration designation, which can have a significant financial impact. I suppose this point can also be applied to Jordan Schafer.
jc25 - January 21, 2009
The Braves would be stupid to give Hanson the position out of ST
I can’t remember where I read this (think it was si.com) but someone did a comparison of Cole Hamels and Matt Garza the other day. It boiled down to the fact that Hamels was called up 19 days earlier than Garza ended up costing them something like $10 Million dollars. Worse, Hamels only pitched like two or three times max in those 19 days. Anyone else remember this and could provide a link?
Let him simmer in AAA until at least June 1. Morton, Reyes and (don’t look BigJoe) Lerew can hold down the fort until then – at least that’s my take.
scstrato - January 21, 2009
Yeah, there's no reason to rush Hanson
it makes no sense financially, and the Braves have enough options at the big league level that need to wait it out for a while.
That being said, if he goes bonkers in AAA, we can’t keep him down for too long.
BraveBronco0121 - January 21, 2009
AAA
We should have a good squad this year, at least with the pitching. Morton, Reyes, Lerew, Parr, Hanson. I can’t believe we haven’t traded any of them yet.
TradeAndruw - January 21, 2009
Offseason ain’t over yet.
mattdiaz4life - January 21, 2009
CentSports
cool little free betting site here
you get 10 cents to bet with free, do what you want with it and maybe youll be able to tally up a nice total…some people have been quite successful turning there 10 cent into 100’s of dollars…the site is paid for totally by adds
http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=317843
RalphieD - January 22, 2009
this actually is an awesome site. FYI
Swo12bv - January 22, 2009
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