From a Ken Rosenthal column this morning:
The Braves, at least for the moment, are pulling back in their search for a hitter.
Money is tighter following the team's combined $83 million commitment to pitchers Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami, and the club is content to wait for potential bargains to develop on the free-agent market.
A trade remains a possibility, but the Braves are unwilling to meet the Yankees' price for outfielder Xavier Nady, knowing they might get better deals in July.
If they can hold off that long.
The outfielders on the Braves' 40-man roster — Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco and Matt Diaz; Jeff Francoeur, Brandon Jones and Greg Norton — are largely undistinguished. Jordan Schafer, a non-roster possibility, has only 297 at-bats above Class A.
The Braves' preference is for a right-handed hitter, but they could settle for a left-handed bat. Their left-handed hitting regulars — Brian McCann, Kelly Johnson and Casey Kotchman — all hit lefties well.
Andruw Jones? The Dodgers released him Thursday, making him available at the minimum salary. However, the Braves are torn about whether to sign him, knowing his arrival might put manager Bobby Cox in a difficult position. Cox might feel obligated to play Jones out of loyalty, but Jones might not merit the opportunity.
Meanwhile, left-handed hitters such as Bobby Abreu, Garret Anderson and Adam Dunn are problematic for the Braves because of their respective prices and/or defensive inadequacies.
It looks more and more like we won't be signing any of the available free agent hitters (much to the chagrin of some here who would like to add Adam Dunn), so that bat will be coming via trade. I don't see the Braves logically being able to hold off until July to add the outfield bat they need. I could see them waiting until the end of spring training, but waiting until July means their offense suffers during the first half of the year -- and we don't want to dig ourselves into a hole in the NL East that we can't climb out of (that's what happened in 2007 when we traded for the big bat -- Teixeira -- and still couldn't make up the deficit).
I had not thought of the whole "Cox's loyalty to AJ would obligate Cox to play him" angle. That might be reason enough to stay away... well, that and the fact that there aren't a lot of people who honestly believe AJ can return to form.
If we learned anything from our pursuit of pitching this off-season it is that we should be patient, and not think the first idea or even the second idea will pan out. The Braves need to find the right fit, and that takes time.
I believe the team will wait until after all their arbitration cases are settled before they pursue any players with sizable contracts. Rosenthal's note about us spending $83 million on Lowe and Kawa made me think that's about the same amount we were going to spend on Burnett... a poll follows...
0 recs | 76 comments
I mentioned the problem of Cox’s loyalty days ago. Rosenthal obviously read this site and proceeded to steal my material.
jeg - January 16, 2009
nice post
Cox’s loyalty to some struggling players have steamed Braves fans in the past… Bobby hasn’t changed much in the last 2 decades or so. I just can’t get that image out of my head of Andruw swinging and missing at that breaking ball down and away (over and over again I might add) with a runner in scoring position, after the Braves have rallied for 2 runs and need 2 more to win: Swing-and-a-miss…
The next game… Andruw starts in Center field… This continues for the entire season.
2007 was painful for Andruw, 2008 was worse. Does anyone really believe 2009 will be any better for AJ?
awilliams16 - January 16, 2009
I do
justincredubil02 - January 16, 2009
Actually
He usually pulls over that ball and hits into an inning-ending DP.
TradeAndruw - January 16, 2009
that too. Touche TradeAndruw, touche.
awilliams16 - January 16, 2009
ultimate rally killer=AJ post 2005
awilliams16 - January 16, 2009
Actually 2006 was one of Andruw’s best seasons with RISP, RISP/2 Out, and Late & Close situations.
Lennox - January 16, 2009
I’m sorry, I must’ve been remembering the 2nd half of that season when he hit .249 after the all-star break. Since the 2006 All-Star break, a span which includes 199 games and 1056 at bats, Jones has hit just .215. But you’re right. He was less of a rally killer than he has been the last 2 years. note the graph: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=96&position=CF&page=0&type=full
Even more telling is the K’s graph.
awilliams16 - January 16, 2009
Sign Andruw Jones to minor league deal (if he accepts)…try him at AAA, if he works, then bring him up for another try at the game. Maybe some time at AAA would boost his confidence and bring his bat back. For the time being, we just resigned Matt Diaz…I hate to say it but we should probably platoon him with Brandon Jones. Brandon is definitely capable of putting up decent numbers.
…and if none of this works, do what the article says and see whos available come July.
bwellnjonesco - January 16, 2009
Gotta say I disagree with you.
Smoltz's Beard - January 16, 2009
Capable and going to are two different things. I think BJ could turn into a Reggie Sanders type guy, he doesn’t really do anything amazing, but he’s a solid major leaguer. I’d love to see him get a full season’s worth of ABs, but not on this Braves team at this time. I think they should have done it last season. Frankly, he’d be better off if they could spin him in a trade.
cbwilk - January 16, 2009
he recently stated in an interview that he wouldn’t accept a minor-league deal.
awilliams16 - January 16, 2009
Have to disagree here, as it is the Braves seemed to have soured a bit on Brandon Jones though he could turn things around here in 09. I think the best bet for Jones is to start everyday for the G-Braves and if he proves himself well enough he could find his way to the roster towards the end of the year.
RainDelay - January 17, 2009
For the Leage minimum
Sign him and if he doesn’t work out cut him. Is that too risky?
SunDolphin - January 16, 2009
if it means putting one of our roster spots on waivers to do it… yeah… maybe.
awilliams16 - January 16, 2009
I read we had our 40 man roster already, so maybe it would be better to get him in the minors first, or invite him to spring training. I don’t know. I’d really like him back and would like him to hit well for us and play that gold glove defense, but I guess we should move on if he’s not willing to make sacrifices.
SunDolphin - January 16, 2009
This one was a bit tricky for me...
If the comparison is Lowe for 4/60 vs. Burnett for 5/83, the answer is easy – Lowe by a mile. Kawakami is completely unproven in the majors, and I think that it’s far from a lock that he’s even league average. I think the median outcome for him is ~ 160 innings at 4.60 or so. That’s valuable, but I don’t think it’s 8 million per year valuable. The plus is that now Atlanta has a beachhead in the Japanese market, which should add to revenue and give us a better shot at future free agents from NPB.
BraveBronco0121 - January 16, 2009
Agreed.
Smoltz's Beard - January 16, 2009
I'm still in favor....
of bringing andruw back, whether it be a minor league deal or a league minimum deal.
bobby’s loyalty was put to the test last year with francoeur and javy lopez. he was able to overcome one of the issues by cutting ties. francoeur, on the other hand, would not have been a regular on any other team in the league. bobby loves the team like his family and it would be hard to bench andruw or cut him, as with any other player he has been with for a while. i do see this as an issue, but hopefully it will be an issue that frank wren can step in and take care of rather than bobby (releasing him if he is not performing).
i am not in favor of going into the year the same way we went in to last year, with question marks in all 3 outfield positions.
we have to acquire something solid in the outfield or else the pitching upgrades were for nothing. at this point, a kelly johnson move might need to be thought about in order to acquire a bat. most serious braves bloggers arent in favor of this because they think prado is a serious offensive downgrade on power. while i do agree, prado still has gap potential and can get on base at about the same rate as kj has shown. plus, the there is no dropoff on defense (i actually think prado can play better defense on an everyday basis than kj).
secondly, an addition of someone such as ludwick would cause people, such as diaz and blanco, to regain their respective roles as bat off the bench or 4th outfielder.
when i do the numbers crunch, and base my research on a 162 game average on baseball reference, prado and ludwick can put up better numbers than kj and diaz. if there’s a way around not trading kj to get a left-fielder than i am all for it, but if he is the necessary sacrifice to get a much-needed upgrade, then i feel prado can fill the role.
ryan c - January 16, 2009
Part of me wants KJ to get traded so everyone gets to see firsthand how much worse Prado would be.
Smoltz's Beard - January 16, 2009
Fuck. That.
bigjoe - January 16, 2009
Prado for 162 games
would mean angry times for many Braves fans. Prado is a utility guy and that is pretty much all. On another comment thread I thought Diaz and Jones as a platoon would be a last option and it looks like it is heading that way if Rosenthal is right. I don’t know how I feel about that.
bengoodfella - January 16, 2009
/agreed
KJ not only had better pop, but can also go on long tears. He’s had quite a few hitting streaks the last couple years right? He’s also finally finding that balance between being selective and being too patient. I still believe KJ could be an occasional all-star. I’m not crazy about trading anyone on our infield just yet.
awilliams16 - January 16, 2009
But seriously, what about Ryan Ludwick?
mattdiaz4life - January 16, 2009
+1
Smoltz's Beard - January 16, 2009
No you wouldn't
Because when he commits 17 errors by the all-star break, the whining will be so bad that bigjoe will have crucified his dick to something hard and rusty, all the women will have bolted, and there will be so many redundant arguments and trade speculations with numbers and statistics flying around, you’d think you were in the fucking Matrix.
royhobbs - January 16, 2009
+1
Reminds me of last season.
Smoltz's Beard - January 16, 2009
I know kung-fu.![]()
awilliams16 - January 16, 2009
It would be different if Prado was the Ozzie Smith of defensive 2B. Or if he had the potential to hit like Ryne Sandberg.
buzzdeadwax - January 16, 2009
I thing I hate about Cox's loyalty
is that it’s selective. KJ ping pongs up and down the lineup and gets platooned when his average falls below .270 (even if his OBP is .350-.370) while Francoeur got an eternity in the 5 slot despite hitting like Michael Bourn. Joey Devine never saw playing time either. After Joey was traded, his spirit was reincarnated into Phil Stockman who never saw the light of day even before his injury. Makes no fucking sense how Cox is loyal to a fault towards some players while treating other players like they deflowered his granddaughter.
VictorW - January 16, 2009
I’m convinced Devine was hurt in 2006…the whole year (minors numbers included) looks like a huge blip on the radar.
bigjoe - January 16, 2009
Yeah that sounds right. Didn’t get much of a shot in 2007 either though.
VictorW - January 16, 2009
What’s Stockman’s deal right now?
Smoltz's Beard - January 16, 2009
Agreed about Bobby’s selective loyalty. Really makes me nervous about sticking Andruw in Bobby’s lineup…..
(and for the record jeg, I remember your post….)
secondbass - January 16, 2009
Honest talk required
Cox’s loyalty is to the organization first. The organization should make it clear to Andruw that he was be judged, and his playing time apportioned, based on his success regaining his 2005 form, and the effort he puts into it. Surely Bobby Cox has the integrity to enforce such a dictum.
Even a platoon role, to start, must be earned. If Andruw can even manage to be a more successful left field platoon player than Matt Diaz, he is worth signing to a minimum salary contract. A centerfield platoon role, or even his old role as a full time centerfielder batting in the middle of the order should all be within reach for Andruw, if he is physically and psychologically capable. But it should be made clear to him that if he is given another chance with the Braves he should aim to earn those promotions in steps, with no expectations of entitlement based on his work during our playoff years.
All this talk about respect and loyalty, and so forth that we hear from Smoltz, Glavine, Chipper, etc., must not become a burden on our rebuilding. If Bobby has bought into that kind of talk, JS should straighten him out. These players were well paid during our glory years, overpaid by the standards of most successful Americans. Andruw Jones will be pocketing $21 million based on his reputation, but going forward he should earn anew every inning of playing time in our lineup.
JimK - January 16, 2009
Frank Wren on XM Radio
Frank Wren actually addressed the article by Rosenthal today on XM radio’s Home Plate (which they have been talking a lot of Braves stuff recently and with people associated with the Braves). Wren actually said in the interview that Rosenthal was way off with saying that the Braves don’t have any more money to spend on an outfield bat. Wren stated that they still have the amount of money that they basically have wanted to spend on an outfield bat all offseason. He also said that he has a few trades on his desk right now, but it seems as though he is waiting around some to see if Dunn and Abreu’s price tags go down some (he didnt say that last part specifically I am just inferring on that part about Dunn and Abreu).
I just thought that I would throw that info out there. As most of us know you can’t always believe what comes out of these reporters since most of them in the offseason are just searching for stories.
atownballa17 - January 16, 2009
Thanks, good info.
gondeee - January 16, 2009
Yeah there’s no way that Rosenthal or any other report or us for that matter know how much money that Braves have left. Not to mention I personally think that Rosenthal is an absolute hack.
RainDelay - January 17, 2009
what offers would that be?
Hopefully offers for some very good outfielders. Offers Wren couldn’t take earlier because he needed to know how he would adress his pitchers needs? Maybe he wanted to know whether he could trade some of the young pitching or one of the middle infielders. In the right deal Jo Jo, Morton, Parr seem expandable now. Especially after hearing the idea is to excercise Hudsons’s option.
I still hope the Braves trade for a real power bat, one with a high OBP as well. If the money is there we might sign Dunn or Abreu (very high OBP). Otherwise a trade for Dye or Ludwick seems like a good idea to me. Who is representing the power bat you are hoping on?
Dutch Braves Fan - January 17, 2009
i like Ryan Ludwick everyone complains that he’s a 1 year fluke, but his minor league numbers back him up. he was hurt alot. after that i like maggs but his salary is high tigers would have to eat some. then i like dye. then swisher, then nady, maybe delmon young. no dunn please. all in that order.
Brandonba - January 17, 2009
You’d rather have Jermaine Dye over Adam Dunn? Seriously?
bigjoe - January 17, 2009
he’s right handed and can defend better and and hit atleast 280 and 30 homeruns tell me that aint better than dunn.
Brandonba - January 17, 2009
you didnt say anything about my top 2 ludwick and maggs
Brandonba - January 17, 2009
I’ve gone into supreme detail about Ludwick various times. Ordonez I wouldn’t mind, but his contract is a NIGHTMARE
bigjoe - January 17, 2009
i know what you mean about Ordonez. i dont know , i like ludwick we’ll be disapointed if we didnt get him if he hits like he did last year. what about ludwicks minor league numbers dont that prove he aint a fluke? i read the cardnals want ready starting young pitching, maybe morton or jojo straight up
Brandonba - January 17, 2009
You know Ludwick is actually something like 16 months OLDER than Dunn, right? He’s played in 125 games in a season once, gotten more than 350 ABs in a season once…what he seems to be getting a bye on, is that he strikes out a shit ton too, just a little less than Dunn. He had a pretty high BABIP too (in the .340s), so he’ll slide a little bit.
THAT is why I don’t like Ryan Ludwick.
bigjoe - January 17, 2009
this is how i see it
Dye’s stats 2008 hits 172. 2b 41 . avg 292 OBP 344. walks 44
Dunn’s stats 2008 hits 122. 2b 23. rbi about the same avg 243. OBP 417 walks 80
dunn is high on bb and obp. but i would rather have dye’s almost double 2b and 50 more hits in clean up than dunns walks and his strikeouts. and dye’s defense is better
Brandonba - January 17, 2009
You’d rather have a guy that gets on base 7% less? Isn’t that the point of baseball…to get on base?
bigjoe - January 17, 2009
id rather have a basehit than a walk or strikeout and a better defender and righthander i can give up 7% for all that dye brings
Brandonba - January 17, 2009
Dye’s been a pretty atrocious fielder over the past couple of years. He’ll be 35 on opening day. He’s in his decline phase. He has a partial NTC, and waiving it would likely require that his 2010 option would be exercised, and I REALLY have no desire to pay $23.5 over 2 years for a declining corner.
bigjoe - January 17, 2009
my point
prado and ludwick > kj and diaz/b.jones
ludwick and what he could bring to this team in need of a left fielder is more valuable than what losing kj would do to the value of the team. kj is incredibly streaky and goes between stages of carrying the team and sacrificing the team (see mac’s research on braves journal).
anyway, i didnt say i wanted to trade kj. i said if it was absolutely necessary to get our man, then it should be done.
ryan c - January 16, 2009
You’re putting alot of faith in Ludwick and Prado. If they both regress this season then what?
Smoltz's Beard - January 16, 2009
Then we are screwed
mvandonsel - January 16, 2009
I’d rather be screwed with a rather established 2B and a black hole of suck as opposed to a guy with a very high BABIP and someone who’s been hurt his entire career and put his best season up at age 30
bigjoe - January 16, 2009
KJ & Diaz/B. Jonese versus Ludwick & Prado/Infante
If you call KJ vs. Ludwick even, it comes down to Diaz/B. Jones vs. Prado or Infante. At least we know that Diaz has been a productive part-time player over 800 PA’s, and B. Jones has the talent to be just as productive. I don’t think that Prado or Infante have ever shown the ability to play better than they currently do.
buzzdeadwax - January 16, 2009
Now that you mention it, Ryan Ludwick does seem like a pretty attractive option.
mattdiaz4life - January 16, 2009
ummmm.
we’re screwed not matter what…it’s just a matter of time before people figure it out.
apoxonbothyourhouses - January 17, 2009
Are you high?
KJ is better than Prado on so many levels its not even funny. And I’m not ready to gamble on Brandon Jones yet – he’s got at least a season to half a season in the minors not to mention it seemed last season the the front office has soured on him a bit.
RainDelay - January 17, 2009
and what's wrong with that...
a 300 ba with .360 obp from prado?
kj’s career- .440 slg
ludwick’s career-.512
prado’s slg- .432
diaz’s slg-.448
b.jones slg (minors) due to the lack of major league stats)- .456
why the love affair with kj from braves nation, but no love for prado? why does an 8 point deficiency in slugging, a superior avg, and equal obp= hate? he also has a decent track record in the minors (despite slugging which can develop with age).
and in response to smoltz’s beard’s last statement: didnt we use the diaz/b.jones plan last year? how did that work out?
ryan c - January 16, 2009
C’mon man…you’re comparing Prado and his 365 career PAs to over 1500 that Kelly has. To put it simply…I’m not buying what Prado did offensively last season. Defensively, according to UZR/150 Prado is a markedly worse 2B…+/- says he is worse as well, though not as much. Ludwick comes with his own set of question marks.
And I’m not sure why you keep bringing up the Diaz/Jones platoon in LF…I sure as hell don’t want that, and I’m pretty sure most people on this board view it as a last resort.
Smoltz's Beard - January 16, 2009
You know why theres no love affair with Prado? Simple.
.360 BABIP. The end.
bigjoe - January 16, 2009
And we didn’t use the platoon last year. Diaz was starting every day and doing pretty fucking badly until he blew his knee out, and then Blanco took over
bigjoe - January 16, 2009
It's called Small Sample Size...
RainDelay - January 17, 2009
sorry to imply...
that we started with a platoon in place. what was meant by diaz/b.jones was diaz starter with b.jones being the 4th outfielder/potential platoon partner for diaz. and the only reason i keep discussing any platoon is basically moot now since wren just came out today saying there’s still plenty of $ left for a power-hitting outfielder.
and joe….one statistic compared to consistent obp and average over his minor league career and brief major league career. has he been hit lucky for his career?
ryan c - January 16, 2009
It’s hard to really believe in his AVG and OBP for his major league career because the majority of those PAs came from one season. And the one statistic Bigjoe provided is also from that season.
According to Fangraphs his BABIP during his last four stops in the minors: .343, .313, .346, .294
So yes, it is completely possible that he was lucky in the minors leagues as well…or maybe he’s just one of those players who can sustain a high BABIP. But the point remains…trading KJ before we have the chance to get more information on Prado could prove to have a negative effect on our team.
Smoltz's Beard - January 16, 2009
Trading KJ now, when there is absolutely no need to, would be a huge mistake. Moving him for a SP, when we badly needed one I could understand. I didn’t like it, but I could understand it. To trade him for an outfielder like Ludwick, who has a good shot at being the biggest one-hit-wonder since Vanilla Ice, would likely make me drive a rusty nail through big joe’s dick.
Rhyno18 - January 16, 2009
Tough break, bigjoe. The Braves brass could bring this about.
mattdiaz4life - January 16, 2009
please forget..
i said anything about kj being traded. i dont want a rusty nail in anyone’s dick. just to protect my original post, i dont “want” the braves to trade kj. i was just saying that if it took him to acquire some serious power for left field, i feel like it would hurt the team less than any other option (unless we could unload that bag of hammers we got playing right field). kj going from the worst player in the league to the best player on the team drives me a little stir crazy.
ryan c - January 16, 2009
Ryan, I wasn’t trying to beat you down I was just trying to explain that Prado is still very much a wild card.
Smoltz's Beard - January 16, 2009
Jones is overwieght and just plain over
AJ is done putt a fork in him.the only way this guy is to get back to form is to lose all the extra poundage.and i don’t mean the dough the Dodgers gave him.not earned but given.i would truly love to see the old Jones in the outfield and kill the ball.yeah he may miss getting the runners in scoring position home,but he could swing at the long ball.Not only does he need to lose wight,but also listen to the hitting coach.shorten up the swing and get a better timing device.oh and a good pair of eyes to see the ball in the stike zone not the ground out of the left handers batter box.as of right now Jones has a lot to work on to get back in mlb shape.and for a guy trying to resurrect a career by quitting winter ball.That is not any way to go about getting back to form.oh and please GM do not consider getting Jones.Get someone that can hit.Nady,Swisher,Abreu are just a few to consider.
image21972 - January 16, 2009
OH GOD MY EYES!!!!
Its like someonoe just gave me a shower with bleach
bigjoe - January 16, 2009
Wall-O-Text makes the baby Jesus cry
Would spaces after periods have killed you?
Rhyno18 - January 17, 2009
Amen...
..as a free lance writer..that makes my eye’s bleed.
RainDelay - January 17, 2009
it's cool...
i knew my post would be controversial, but its just an opinion. no harm, no foul. grammar police…..weo….weo….weo….
ryan c - January 16, 2009
Check out my article about the Braves outfield on playerpress.com
Hey this is the link.
Its informative with stats and all options of an outfielder.
http://www.playerpress.com/articles/braves-looking-at-outfield-possibilities
Max McGonigle - January 17, 2009
Thank god that top bar says RUMORS on it…
bigjoe - January 17, 2009
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