Talking Chop

He has looked like a trainwreck up at the plate though. Swinging early in the count, off-balance swings, etc. But maybe I’ve just tuned in for his poor PAs.

No, i'm seeing it too

I think what you’re seeing is a combination of seeing new pitchers and Terry P trying to change his stance. Major changes like this (widening the stance and dropping the stride) have a tendency to feel awkward until they become routine.

Ahh...

…completely forgot about TP. Good call.

Smoltz's Beard - August 21, 2008 reply

Remember

We should not forget to take into account the fact that he wasn’t good to begin with.

drdonkeypunch - August 20, 2008 reply

Kotchman will be fine

Take a look at this.

First of all, small sample size. Only 81 PAs as a Brave. Let’s compare it to his 2008 numbers as an Angel.

The good:
LD% is WAY up (Will go down eventually.), which is a good thing. At 24.6% it predicts a much higher BABIP (.366 or so) than his .180. So his hard hit balls are going straight at people. Bad luck.

Pitches per PA are back up to 3.7, the same as his 2007. Likewise, his walk rate is way up.

So basically he’s working the count more, walking more, and hitting more balls for line drives, but right at people.

The bad:

He’s earned the nickname 3U for a reason. The GB% is up and a lot of them are weak ones to 1st or 2nd. IF/F % is up. Infield flies are outs something like 96% of the time so that’s not good. It also shows he’s not making good contact on some pitches or getting fooled.

K rate is up too, but at least he’s walking more too. No home runs yet either, but he’s not a home run hitter anyway.

More grounders, more infield flies, more Ks, and no long balls.

It’s all small sample size though, but I like what I see. His patience is back and he’s hitting balls hard. The results will follow.

And if you want to take a look at his plate approach, click here.

He doesn’t swing at bad pitches very often. Here’s McCann and Francoeur for comparison.

Good stuff, Vic...

…I wasn’t sure if I was just catching his poor PAs, and it looks like I was. The stats are still ugly, but this appears to be one of the scenarios where perception is showing that he may be improving.

Good stuff man.

yeah anybody givin up on him is flat out crazy. I find it very funny that everybody wanted Connor Jackson and when we got Kotchman thought it was an awful trade. Is Jackson a better hitter than Kotchman? Yes he is no doubt about that. Is Kotchman a better defensive First baseman than Jackson? HELL YES!!! Everybody says defense at first is not important but your a fool if you believe that. I will admit if you ONLY play great defense and have ZERO offense then yes you are not doin much for the team. But the thing is Kotchman is a good young hitter that I like. I think Kotchman is capable of a .290 average, 15 homers, 75-80 RBI’s, .370 OBP for next season with GREAT defense. What is Jackson gonna put up next season? maybe .300 average, 20-25 homers, 90 RBI’s, .350-.370 OBP and a guy that will play BELOW average defense at first or play in LF next season. If you really look at it Kotchman is not nearly as bad as most think he is. But of course if I had to pick Kotchman or Jackson I would pick Jackson BUT I am very happy to have Kotchman on my team.

rockybull - August 20, 2008 reply

If Kotchman can get that OBP near the neighborhood of .370 I’ll be quite happy.

he is definately capable of a .370 OBP. He doesn’t strike out much and he usually walks more than he has this year. I expect at least close to .370 OBP next season.

rockybull - August 20, 2008 reply

Expectations...

You’re expecting Kotchman to eclipse his career highs in 2009 despite his subpar performance for the Angels this year and his catastrophic start with the Braves so far? I know you like the guy and that means that reason goes right out the window (paging the Jeff Francouer Fan Club) when discussing the player at hand, so I’ll just give you my expectations for our new 1B in 2009: .280/.350/.435 and top-notch defense. By the way, I’d be pleased with that out of him; expecting more will only lead to disappointment.

ejruiz - August 20, 2008 reply

someone needs to compile THORMAN’S olympic stats and see if they’re better than kotchman’s braves stats

bigjoe - August 20, 2008 reply

This will be fun

A game by game basis (hitting in the heart of Canada’s order, no less)…

1-2, 2 R, 3 RBI
1-5, 1 R, 2 K
0-4, 1 K
1-4
0-3, 2 K
DNP
1-5, 1 RBI

So…4-23, 3 R, 4 RBI, 0 BB, 5 K

Kelly Johnson

Offensively, he reminds me of Kelly Johnson. By that I mean:

Left hand hitter. Potential to be guys who have a decent batting average and have some pop. Both seem to go through spells where they can’t hit a lick. Neither will never be dominate offensive players but can be okay.

Defensively Kotchman is a gold glove first basemen. Kelly Johnson is a defensive liability.

Please say you have the #'s to back up..

…your claim that KJ is a defensive liability.

According to John Dewan’s +/- fielding metric is a -1 (one, if not the only trustable defensive metric). Which means he’s gotten to exactly one ball less than your average second baseman. This also ranks him 13th in the Majors in Defense at Second base (middle of the pack). So while he’s not a gold glover, he’s not a Liability defensively like you claim. He is merely middle of the pack or if you want a better term “average” with the glove.

Agreed

Everyone thinks Kelly is bad because he racks up a lot of fielding errors, and maybe he is a below average fielder. But he has plus range which makes him a pretty average fielder overall.

He's also..

…got fewer errors this year than last, albeit 3 less than last year. But still..

You want to talk defensive liabilitys...

Kotsay is a -9 ranked #30 in the majors for CF
Frenchy is a -6 in RF #24 in the Majors for RF

On the other end, Escobar is the best defensive shortstop in the majors right now with a +27. The closest to him is JJ Hardy with a +16.

!

I didn’t realize Kotsay was that poor…I seem to remember that one of the reasons we got him was FOR his D.

soup du jour - August 20, 2008 reply

I was..

…surprised too when I looked at the numbers as well. But there it is, he gets to nine balls less than your average CF’er.

Is it normalized for innings played?

I don’t have access to that stuff so I’m asking.

Revised Zone Rating doesn’t like Kotsay either. Has him at .888 and 35 OOZ plays, which is probably in the bottom 1/3 or 1/4 of CF regulars. For comparison, Blanco has a .917 RZR which makes him probably average at best.

Kotsay hasn’t been a good CF since the back injuries. People think he’s good because he’s great fundamentally and a good fielder, but the range is gone. It’s the same reason some people think Jeter is a good defensive SS. Can make great plays but no range at all.

Yes it is.

+1 for Yunel

RZR loves him too.

Gold Glove NOW

too many errors, even if they’re probably all throwing errors

bigjoe - August 20, 2008 reply

He's 5th in Errors in the NL among Short stops with 12...

…not bad for 106 games really.

HanRam leads all NL SS with 20.

The 12 or so errors he’s made are easily made up by his ability to get to balls that no other SS can get to. Throw away 5 more balls than the average SS, while getting to 30 more balls. I’ll take it.

VictorW - August 21, 2008 reply

Rain Delay

Nope. I don’t have the stats to back it up. Just my eyes. Here’s what my eyes see when I watch Kelly play second:

A guy who is not a smooth fielder. He tries hard, but he’s not that good. The stats say he is middle of the pack? Because he has average range? Last time I checked there was more to playing second than getting to a ball. How does he look turning a double play? Awkward. Watch Prado and Escobar work together. You can look at the stats later. Watch them. Ask yourself which pair looks smoother (KJ and Escobar or Prado and Escobar).

Kelly has above average range

If his range was just average for his position then he’d be bad defensively.

Double plays make up probably 10-20% of a second baseman’s plays. I don’t think you can dismiss Kelly’s defensive contribution just because he gets taken out sometimes at second base. Keep in mind that his extra range allows him to start more double plays than a more sluggish, less athletic 2B.

Prado doesn’t play enough second to really comment on, but he definitely doesn’t have Kelly’s range and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is a better fielder.

Kelly Johnson: minus fielder, plus range makes him an average defensive second baseman.

and he's actually..

…a +4 when it comes to balls to his left.

Also remember...

…KJ isn’t even through his second full season at a position he’s never played at any other level except at the ML Level. I’m not sure how many people forget he never played 2nd before last year.

I remember...

every time I see him try to handle a grounder!

BBFAN46 - August 22, 2008 reply

Enlighten Me

You know, I don’t hate stats. Really I don’t. I think they are often very useful in determining the worth of a ballplayer. My problem is that I don’t think they tell the whole story. Let me give an example. Maybe you guys can help me get it.

Mark Lemke. I imagine there were lots of guys who had better range. Here’s what my eyes saw: A linebacker could run over Lemke at second and Lemke would still turn the double play.

Some of you may dig what I’m saying.

You would love the fielding stats Rain Delay is talking about then

Here’s the site with data from the previous years. Check under Plus/Minus. The 2008 data you have to subscribe to Bill James’s site for (I think).

And here’s a summary from Dewan’s site:

My book, The Fielding Bible, goes into great length (ad nauseum to some) describing the new fielding system we developed at Baseball Info Solutions, the Plus/Minus System. Video Scouts at BIS review video of every play of every major league game and record detailed information on each play, such as the location of each batted ball, the speed, the type of hit, etc. Using this in-depth data, we’re able to figure out how each player compares to his peers at his position. How often does Derek Jeter field that softly batted ball located 20 feet to the right of the normal shortstop position, for example, compared to all other major league shortstops?

I agree that you should use your eyes in addition to stats to get the whole picture, but the eyes can be deceiving. Jeter’s a great example. Looks great as a fielder and makes accurate throws, but he can’t move left and stats like Plus/Minus really expose how much of a weakness that is.

2008 is subscription only..

…but at 3 bucks a month it ain’t bad.

Fielding metrics and darts

I have a question (or two, or maybe three). I’m not trying to start something with this, I’m honestly looking for insight (hopefully I don’t sound sarcastic), but how is it possible to quantify fielding with numbers? Please read on.

A little background on me. I’ve avoided fielding metrics like the plague for the last 4 or 5 years. My headaches began when researching players defensive abilities for a new SOM league I joined. Strat had their lists, others listed by range factors and still others used zone ratings and on and on and on… NONE of which were remotely close to one another. THEN, to make matters worse, Bobby Abreu won a Gold Glove (WTF) and SOM gave him an average 3 rating (1=best, 5=worst). So I decided, at least for me, these “numbers” were too opinion based or just generally unquantifiable statistically.

Back to my question … Knowing I haven’t looked into fielding metrics in a long time can you give me an idea of what’s changed to improve the theories/formulas? Reading your excerpt above I’m guessing everything is still left up to the human eye. Unless you layout a grid across the diamond how can you accurately judge where balls are hit or how hard by using video replay? Doesn’t this go back to my point about it being “someone’s” opinion?

I guess the point of my question(s) is/are – I’m hoping you can prove me wrong and that there is some legitimacy to the metrics. I would love to have a reliable source to tell me which player is better defensively.

do you honestly think the best fielders win gold gloves?

bigjoe - August 21, 2008 reply

I actually work for Baseball Info Solutions..

..not only do they use the replay, but at every AAA, AA and ML game there are two BIS Scorers whos job it is to plot every ball put into play. Every pitch, pitched…and the list goes on.

Get the Book “The Fielding Bible” by John Dewan – he’s the one that came up with the +/- metric I use, and it’s honestly the best one of the lot – though none of them are perfect. It’s worth the 14 bucks for the book and well worth the read.

RainDelay - August 21, 2008 reply

Perfect

I hope you didn’t take offense to my post, I didn’t intend it as a slant against BIS.

Anyway, one of the articles on the website from Bill James references vectors. I’m assuming this is a simple series of straight lines drawn from the plate to the back of the infield, correct? If so, and not trying to beat a dead horse, but how do you account for depth of the fielder? In James article he mentions how Jeter plays a more shallow SS than Everett. Does Dewan account for the theory that Jeter could get to balls on Vectors that are unreachable to Everett (given the distance between vectors would be less for Jeter) and if so, how is it translated in the data? I’m not asking you to share Proprietary info, but would love to get a simple understanding on this one.

I’m trying to go into this with an open mind but I keep going back to the fact “people” are viewing plays and entering data. Not saying those people aren’t good at what they do, but on the other side of that I look some of the calls from the so called “official scorers” and have to wonder. I guess you hit the nail on the head .. “though none of them are perfect”. You have to start somewhere, right?

It's all good...

…some of what your asking I don’t know. I’m just a scorer, and plot every ball hit into play, like I said there are two of us. And then once we log our game into the software we up loaded, and it’s gone over again by guys at the head office.

So realistically, every game is looked over and over and over, and over again. Lots of cross checking and corrections.

RainDelay - August 22, 2008 reply

Just to add...

..it’s been a while since I ready the book. Might have to pull it off the shelf and give it another read through – but I do recall him talking about vectors and what not. It’s been about a year since I read the book.

RainDelay - August 22, 2008 reply

The problem wasn’t with the fielding metric you were using, if was with the voters.

BP just came out with their MVPs and Cy Young Awards up until this point of the season and had an interesting choice for AL MVP:

Cliff Lee has outpitched the field by a win, he leads AL players in WARP and VORP, and he even comes with a great story. If performance is the metric, Cliff Lee has been the most valuable player in the American League. His lead over the pack—Kinsler, Rodriguez, and Halladay, in that order—is small enough that the next six weeks could change everything, but right now, Lee is the AL MVP.

Of course, starting pitchers on bad teams don’t win the MVP award, so we’re likely to see another season in which the award and the most valuable player are two different animals. The media-attention candidates—Quentin, Hamilton, and Francisco Rodriguez, by and large—don’t compare to the top players in the league, and even guys such as Justin Morneau and Kevin Youkilis are getting more play than Lee and Alex Rodriguez. It’s not entirely clear to me why the AL MVP award is more about narrative than numbers, but we’re nearly a decade into this being the case, and it’s not going to change anytime soon.

Smoltz's Beard - August 21, 2008 reply

Love BP

I read that article and the first thing that popped into my mind … the old “pitchers can’t win MVP awards” argument are just around the corner.

The Abreu thing was a farce, totally unrealistic conclusion. I merely threw it in my post to help show the variance in the metrics, or at least the variance in people’s opinions.

Fair comments

Rain Delay: He is new to 2nd base. I think he may have played some other infield positions in the minors. To be fair I think he has gradually improved. He just doesn’t do it for me defensively.

Victor W: Thanks for the info. Interesting comments on the double plays. Let me set aside the range issue (good argument, I may have to concede that one). Double plays may be 10 to 20% of a 2nd basemen’s plays, but they have a powerful effect. Two outs in one play is huge! Runners on 1st and 3rd one out. Turn it and the run doesn’t score. Bobble it and just get the runner at 1st? Not only does the run score, there is a runner at 2nd base. The next guy gets a single (another run). Hits a bomb (2 more runs).

I enjoy talking with you about this stuff. Gotta go and put my daughter to bed. Later

He was..

…originally a shortstop and then moved to the outfield before he had TJ surgery.