Baseball America released their top-10 prospects for the Atlanta Braves. They are the third major prospect outlet to do so, preceeded by John Sickels and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. The Talking Chop readers also put out a top-25 list which can be viewed here. The Baseball America top-10 list:
- Tommy Hanson, rhp
- Jason Heyward, of
- Jordan Schafer, of
- Gorkys Hernandez, of
- Freddie Freeman, 1b
- Cole Rohrbough, lhp
- Jeff Locke, lhp
- Julio Teheran, rhp
- Kris Medlen, rhp
- Craig Kimbrel, rhp
It's no surprise to see Hanson above Heyward after the AFL he had. It's also interesting to see that they think very highly of Craig Kimbrel. Jordan Schafer, last year's top prospect is now number three on the list.
0 recs | 110 comments
Cody Johnson rated as the best power hitter? I don’t know much about the guy, so can someone please tell me if that’s an accurate rating? I would have figured Freeman, but I’m not very up to date on our minor leaguers other than the top guys we talk about on a daily basis.
Smoltz's Beard - December 15, 2008
Johnson
Strikes out a ton, but when he connects, he hits them farther than a person should be able to do. Massive power, seriously.
I tried my best to find a link to an article in the paper of the visiting city where Rome was playing this year. Cody hit one over the fence, over a pathway, and over another fence into a parking lot or something. I mean, it was enough to be big news in whatever town it was in. It’s somewhere out there…..
secondbass - December 15, 2008
You know who else has massive power?
Scott Thorman.
10-4 - December 15, 2008
And Steve Hacker and Ron Wright and Mike Hessman. Yeah, some guys don’t pan out. But maybe Johnson will. History’s not on his side, but maybe…
cbwilk - December 15, 2008
i’m pretty sure mike hessman is the all-time minor league home run leader or something silly like that.
bigjoe - December 15, 2008
He beat Crash Davis’ record?
10-4 - December 15, 2008
He’s working on it. I love Mike and the crazy thing is, as long as he’s been around, he’s still only gonna be 31 at the start of next season. There’s plenty of time for him to have an impact for a major league team. If he got 500 at bats in a season he’d hit 40 home runs. He’d also strikeout 250 times, but he’d drive a few in.
cbwilk - December 15, 2008
Home Run
The home run you are talking about was in Asheville on May 23rd. It was measured by Google Earth at 515’. The article is no longer in the Asheville Newpaper archives but if I can find a copy I will scan and post it.
NWFla - December 15, 2008
That's the one......
Good call!
secondbass - December 15, 2008
I’d have to say that’s accurate. Cody may have as much power as any player in the game; it’s really his one plus plus tool and the only one’s he’s been consistent with. Freddie is a much better overall hitter and he’ll probably put up a ton of homers, but if each reached their peak, Cody would definitely hit more. In fact, even though it didn’t bear out in the numbers this year, I’d argue that Heyward has more power than Freddie.
This reminds me of something great I got to see in Spring Training this year. After all the minor leaguers were done practicing, Cody Johnson, Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, and Tyler Flowers stayed late for a hitting session in front of all of the Braves minor league hitting coaches. By the end it turned into a home run derby. I was (and still am) pretty excited about the future of the Braves.
cbwilk - December 15, 2008
I miss Flowers already.....
secondbass - December 15, 2008
Hernandez above Freeman? Hanson about Heyward? Interesting.
iLukeisamazing - December 15, 2008
Yeah, I’ve been surprised to see Freeman below Gorkys on both BA’s and BP’s lists.
Smoltz's Beard - December 15, 2008
Surprised?
Yes, I am too. But, considering they are listed back to back I’m am not overly concerned. BA has always liked toolsy players and considering Freeman’s age and his lack of historical performance I can almost understand the rankings. Again, I don’t necessarily agree with it.
scstrato - December 15, 2008
Gorkys Hernandez is the kind of guy that BA gets a real hard on for
BraveBronco0121 - December 15, 2008
I think if the list had been made a month or so ago you probably would have seen heyward above Hanson (and he was on most lists). But it is interesting what a dominant AFL means for a pitcher vs a hitter. Flowers was absolutely terrifying out there and he was still in the bottom 1/4 of the AFL rankings but Hanson was Godzirra on steroids and he leapfrogs heyward in most peoples minds. Obviously ‘Zona is a hitters dreamland and in recent years most clubs haven’t even been sending their top flight pitching prospects out there because they get hit so hard and their psyches get brittle, so that makes seeing Hanson cruise through there even most impressive.
Remember just a few short months ago when most people were saying Hanson was a back of the rotation starter? Did Hanson improve that much this year? Or was he just massively underrated by the majority of scouts? Probably a little of both. I know the slider had a lot to do with his success.
yondaime4 - December 15, 2008
“Remember just a few short months ago when most people were saying Hanson was a back of the rotation starter?”
I remember that. I disagreed with that sentiment, and you defended the back of the rotation rating with supreme assholery.
Anyways, I’m sure you’re glad the projections of Hanson’s ceiling might have been inaccurate – although he hasn’t pitched in the Major Leagues yet, so nothing is certain.
buzzdeadwax - December 15, 2008
man hold a grudge or what? pictures or it didn’t happen
yondaime4 - December 15, 2008
Never mind - Found it myself
I never defended that he was a back of the rotation pitcher, but I guess quoting stuff is being an asshole. So here I am being an asshole again….
yondaime4 - December 15, 2008
you asshole!
gondeee - December 15, 2008
Why would you bother?
Are you so insecure that you’d take the time to search through posts, then deliberately leave out the parts where you were a dick just so that you can escape any kind of criticism? I mean, why would any rational person call you an asshole for quoting someone else? That makes zero sense. It’s okay to be wrong – we all are sometimes. And sometimes we act like assholes toward each other, but we shouldn’t compound that by denying that it ever happened. It must be awesome to be right all the time.
buzzdeadwax - December 15, 2008
Well I mean, you brought up a post I made nearly 6 months ago and called me an asshole over it. I guess now I’m the insecure one because I felt I needed to respond to such a thing? And here you are still calling me names over a post…made on the internet. And then you get mad because I researched it. Have you never been on the internet before? Do you not know how this works? I mean where you come from can you throw rocks at someone and expect them to keep walking? No you are just a name calling petulant child.
and here is the entirety of my post for your viewing pleasure:
yondaime4 - December 15, 2008
good u r a dick… quoting and citign and having an opinion.. u bastard
Swo12bv - December 15, 2008
If Heyward was in BA’s midseason top 10, doesnt it stand to reason with Hanson being placed above him that we will have 2 top 10 prospects entering next season…
gopherbroke - December 15, 2008
It’s nice to see they’re sticking to their guns with Teheran. They had him ranked high last year and after a so-so debut it would have been easy to drop him out of the top ten. I think they’re right too, the kid is good.
cbwilk - December 15, 2008
Grrr...
They misspelled Francoeur everywhere.
Also, best slider: Hanson. Didn’t he just introduce the slider into his repertoire this last year? I though he had a pretty decent fastball and a good yakker curveball…its very interesting that his slider looks so good to these guys. I wonder if it was his out pitch in the AFL.
soup du jour - December 15, 2008
well Hanson had a great slider before he entered the Brvaes system, I have heard (most likely from somone at TC) that the Brvaes dont like pitchers throwing sliders in the low minors or soemthign like that.
Swo12bv - December 15, 2008
similar situation to King Felix it sounds like. Everyone knew Felix wasn’t even using his best pitch until he reached the majors.
yondaime4 - December 15, 2008
Ah Ha! Hicks at 3rd!!!
BA has Hicks as the projected starter at 3rd for 2012. I only point that out to remind the world that I predicted that eventual move long ago.
I know that doesn’t mean it will happen….and if it doesn’t, I’ll deny I ever said it…..
secondbass - December 15, 2008
/screenshot.
soup du jour - December 15, 2008
What? Me? When? I have no recollection of what you’re talking about.
Unless I’m right, of course….
secondbass - December 15, 2008
BA has said they only use the projected lineups as a rough estimate for evaluating depth, not a prediction of the future. It would be a waste of his value if ATL moved him off of SS. He is an excellent defensive shortstop. therefore if his bat continues to progress, a significant portion of his value is reduced by him changing positions where there exists a higher offensive standard of production. If he hits up to the level of his ceiling, he wil either 1) play SS for Atlanta or 2) be traded to another organization who will play him at SS where his value is maximized.
jeg - December 15, 2008
Is he an excellent defensive shortstop? Every time I saw him he looked adequate, but his size and body type looked like he was eventually going to have to move off of short. I really didn’t see anything that made me think he was a plus defender at short.
cbwilk - December 15, 2008
every scouting report ive seen about Hicks has promoted the notion that he was a plus defender at SS. strong arm, solid to above average range, sure hands, excellent athlete, instinctive is what has come out of the scouting community but i personally have not seen him. I may have been wrong to assert he has a plus defender but havent heard anything to dispute that until now
jeg - December 15, 2008
I’m no scout, but I watched him play in Rome (15 or 20 games), and 6 at Myrtle Beach. He’s good with the glove, good arm, but he is indeed, as cbwilk said, a big guy. Looks like a 3B to me, but I guess there’s no body type or profile that is set in stone regarding who can play where or what. My gut feeling, however, is that he’ll end up at third. Pope doesn’t appear to be advancing with the bat, Campbell is one big question mark, Gilmore just got traded, so who is next in line? Samuel Sime? Adam Coe?
No, I say! Brandon Hicks!
And that’s my scouting report….
secondbass - December 15, 2008
yeah that seems to be a pretty good evaluation. if he does outgrow SS or lose athleticism then maybe he should be moved off of SS but if he maintains above average defense ability at SS, he should stay at SS where he has more value. im not sold that he will improve enough at the plate to be a regular 3B. lots of K’s and he isnt exactly young for the level of competition
jeg - December 15, 2008
to me it just seems like a CHipper instance, defensivley at least, Hicks is a bgi boy at 6’ 3" similar to Chipper, and their body types ate very similar. Unfortunately i do not remember whether or not CHipper was considered a good SS, But I have always thoguth Hicks projects more as a 3B, simply because of his size.
Swo12bv - December 15, 2008
It’s been awhile but I believe chipper was designated as a 3b prospect after one year in the farm’s. He struggled at SS defensively with the Macon Braves back in 1991. Like I said it’s been awhile but I believe 1991 is the correct year where his 3B career was predicted.
Charmin519 - December 15, 2008
I appreciate your position jeg. I didn’t mean to call you out or anything, I was just wondering where you were coming from. Definitely, if you haven’t seen a player, all you can go on is what you read. My guess is Hicks looked good at short in college and that hung over to his pro debut.
I’m not sold on him as a hitter. Personally I think right now Travis Jones is a better player, but he’s not athletic enough to play short, so Hicks gets all the love.
cbwilk - December 15, 2008
your position is appreciated as well. Travis Jones does have a nice power/speed combo that could push him up the prospect rungs quickly. I also believe that eric campbell could have a breakout year (for the 2nd time) at AA. He has shown good power and improved plate discipline. Not a plus defender but still playable. The fact that he doesnt strike out much suggests his batting average has potential to increase even as he moves up a level. Lets hope he has got his head straight because the kid can mash
jeg - December 15, 2008
I’m actually not a fan of Campbell at all. I always take the line from Bull Durham, “He’s got a million dollar arm and a 10 cent head” and apply it to Campbell. I just doubt the guy will be able to get over himself and produce like he could be able to. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s just how I feel about him.
We’ve got a pretty deep farm system and Travis Jones is a great example of that. He had a pretty nice season (even though he probably would have been better off at Rome for the first part of the year) and he never gets talked about. He’s the best second base prospect in the system (unless you count Diory Hernandez as a 2B) and a darn good player, but nobody talks about him cause there are 20-30 guys that are better than him. It’s a pretty fun time to watch the Braves minor leagues right now.
cbwilk - December 15, 2008
but nuke laloosh does eventually get over himself and go on to the big leagues
jeg - December 15, 2008
I wonder if trading Gilmore is a vote of confidence in Campbell? Or it could be a vote of not so much confidence in Gilmore. Either way, Campbell does bring a lot of natural ability to the table.
buzzdeadwax - December 15, 2008
I don’t really think it was either. I think it was more of, this is what we have to do to get this pitcher. They signed Donell Linares, a 25 year old Cuban third baseman this year, and they’re saying he’s going to start out in the middle of the system next year. I guess that means either Myrtle Beach or Mississippi. So, if anything, maybe they were comfortable enough with his play during instructional league to be willing to let go of Gilmore.
I like getting Vazquez, but I hate to see Gilly go. I’ve never been that impressed with an 18 year old player as a person before.
cbwilk - December 16, 2008
i’m pretty sure that of everyone on the planet, i like hernandez the least
bigjoe - December 15, 2008
less than Hitler? hes alive I saw him on the tv, but tom cruise is gonna get em : )
bwellnjonesco - December 15, 2008
i phrased that horribly. i meant “of everyone who likes hernandez, i’m the lowest on him”. yeah.
bigjoe - December 15, 2008
I love Gorkys. The guy can flat out play. I’m hoping he develops well and we finally have a long term leadoff hitter.
cbwilk - December 15, 2008
i personally think he’s destined for trade bait because we cannot essentially have 2 CFs in the OF.
bigjoe - December 15, 2008
You may be right, but Schafer has a different skill set. Yes, he’s a centerfielder, and a better one that Gorkys, but as a hitter he’s likely to be more of a 3 hole hitter, or at worst a 5-7 hitter. He could fit in well at leadoff or in the 2 hole, but if he performs up to his potential, he’s going to be better than that.
Gorkys really only projects as a leadoff hitter. So it’s not like they’re the same player, and Gorkys is at least a year behind Jordan in development. It would be nice having that kind of defense in an outfield.
cbwilk - December 15, 2008
Is Schafer the better defender of the two? Or vice versa? Just curious.
And do you prefer Gorkys over Schafer as the leadoff hitter simply because of his speed? BP did a writeup last season in which Hernandez rated as one of the top-3 speedsters in the minors last year. But, to my knowledge Schafer is no slouch. Think Gorkys is plus-plus, whereas Jordan is just plus. Jordan has a better walk rate in the minors, though. That’s why I think I would prefer him. Has Schafer been hitting from the leadoff spot in the minors?
Sorry for all the questions…
Smoltz's Beard - December 15, 2008
i’ve heard some RIDICULOUS things about schafer’s defense from a bunch of people.
in the minors, he’s lower in the lineup…i think he spent a lot of time in the 5 hole for the m-braves this year.
bigjoe - December 15, 2008
Yeah, I’ve heard that Jordan’s defense is so good that he’ll be in the majors for that alone…regardless of how his stick plays. I was just hoping to get some feedback from some people that may have seen the two.
Thanks for the lineup info. I would rather have the guy with a a higher walk rate who’s projected to go 20/20, than the guy with a lower walk rate who’s projected to go 10/40…but that’s just me.
Smoltz's Beard - December 15, 2008
*I would rather have the guy AS A LEADOFF HITTER…
what I meant to type.
Smoltz's Beard - December 15, 2008
If you don’t like people making fun of your typos, stop making them… be SMRTER.
royhobbs - December 15, 2008
I know right? I’m assuming you saw that conversation from last night.
I’ve been typing with all thumbs the past two days.
Smoltz's Beard - December 15, 2008
basestealing is so horribly overrated anyway. thats the one thing old man bobby might be right about.
bigjoe - December 15, 2008
Agreed.
Smoltz's Beard - December 15, 2008
Overrated? Possibly a hidden truth but at the same time......
I don’t think one guy who has the ability to steal would hinder us. We shouldn’t avoid it by any means. If we don’t have HR bats then small ball becomes a bigger factor.
Charmin519 - December 15, 2008
Gorkys is swiping bases at an 83% rate in the minors…the number would have to be that high in the majors for the extra 90 feet to outweigh the number of times he gives up an out. Chances are with more adept catchers he’s going to be below 80%, and it’s around that percentage that stealing bases beginnings to backfire.
Smoltz's Beard - December 15, 2008
Overrated
But I think that if you have a guy on first who is a huge threat to steal a base it can make some differences in how much the pitcher concentrates on the making good pitches, as opposed to being fast to the plate to give his catcher a chance. Therefore maybe making a mistake. It also gives the defense something to worry about for positioning and maybe opening more holes in the infield.
But Booby is just going to have the guy behind him bunt him over anyway, so there really is no need to be a big time basestealer.
JFP - December 15, 2008
Schafer is definitely the better defender of the two, but Gorkys would probably be the best defensive outfielder in any other organization.
I prefer Gorkys as a leadoff hitter over Jordan simply because Gorkys doesn’t project anywhere else. He could be a two hitter, but you’d have to have somebody with a better leadoff skill set ahead of him, and that just seems unlikely, and in the 8 hole you’re kind of wasting him.
I’ve seen Jordan hit leadoff, 3rd, and 5th over the last few years in different places. I loved him out of the leadoff spot; he reminded me of Marquis Grissom, kind of a guy who didn’t really belong leading off, but it created a dynamic situation where he could do just about anything in a given at bat.
You’re right about Jordan being fast, but it’s not the same kind of speed. He’s got athletic speed, whereas Gorkys has speed-speed. Jordan is just a great athlete and he does everything well. Gorkys is a great athlete too, but he’s built more for speed than the sort of overall game Jordan is.
They’re both fantastic players and you really couldn’t go wrong with either one of them out of the leadoff spot. Frankly I’d love to see a lineup four or five years from now where it went Gorkys, Jordan, Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward 1-4. That’s fairly unlikely, but it’d be something.
cbwilk - December 15, 2008
Good stuff man.
I really enjoy hearing from those of you who have seen them in person. Many thanks. I still would prefer Jordan out of the two though.
Smoltz's Beard - December 15, 2008
Oh no doubt. But hopefully the world is perfect and we never have to choose.
cbwilk - December 16, 2008
I’m not the biggest Hernandez fan either but I have to admit that he has Furcal-like potential out of the leadoff spot. He has the excellent speed (though he didn’t steal much this year for whatever reason) and he gets a good share of XBH. He is still young but I soured on him a little this season even though he had a nagging injury for most of the middle part of the year. I hope he proves me wrong.
yondaime4 - December 15, 2008
i think the hamstign affected him a lot, and thats why he wasnt stealign as many bases.. wasnt it his hamstring he went down with for much of the year
Swo12bv - December 15, 2008
ok I couldn’t remember if it was a hammy or a wrist thing so I didn’t want to assume either. But yeah then that would do it.
yondaime4 - December 15, 2008
Trade #1 and #2 for Peavy.
Just kidding. Throw in Escobar too. That’ll get it done.
10-4 - December 15, 2008
i know BA isn't the gospel
but this
“Undaunted by giving up five prospects for Teixeira in a 2006 trade that will turn out to be one of Schuerolz’s most regrettable moves”
is a big fuck you to all of you a-holes who keep trying to convince me that the tex trade was a good move.
son.of.sourman - December 15, 2008
my counter to that is not a single player that we gave up in that deal has made the move look bad for us. Yet.
yondaime4 - December 15, 2008
Once again, they are looking at the trade in hindsight so of course they can say that. And until Andrus and Feliz reach the bigs I don’t see how you can call it a loss…in fact I’m surprised BA would go that far. Salty and Harrison look terrible so far.
Oh, and fuck you too.
Smoltz's Beard - December 15, 2008
Heh
yondaime4 - December 15, 2008
I feel really warm and fuzzy right now...
…but I can’t, for the life of me, figure not why.
buzzdeadwax - December 15, 2008
of course it's hindsight
it’s an event that happened in the past. what else would it be? we have this information now, so why do you want to ignore it? isn’t more information usually better? i don’t get you man.
son.of.sourman - December 15, 2008
Yes, we have more information. But the present information does not impress me. Beau Jones looks like shit down in the minors, Salty and Harrison do not look good in the majors. Sure, Andrus and and Feliz are projectable, but I’ll hold my breath on them.
The PAs and IPs we got from Tex and Mahay can’t be disputed though. They were well above average. Did we make the playoffs? Of course not, but it was hardly their fault. Kotchman, Marek, and Devall? Time will also tell with them.
But spending every day bitter about the trade must suck man, because it wasn’t all that bad.
Smoltz's Beard - December 15, 2008
bitter isn't the right word
annoyed at people talking themselves into an obviously awful trade just because it was made by their idea of a baseball god, is more accurate, but longer.
“Did we make the playoffs?”
That answers your question right there. The whole point was to either keep Tex somehow or make the playoffs. your comment "Of course not, but it was hardly their fault. " tells me you don’t understand the situation. If even with these guys the playoffs were not in the cards then it’s an even worse trade. In that case there was absolutely no upside, unless you think Kotchman, Devall, Marek > Feliz, Andrus, Salty, Harrison.
son.of.sourman - December 15, 2008
you can stop mentioning matt harrison like he was some kind of huge loss, thanks.
bigjoe - December 15, 2008
i've never actually done that
son.of.sourman - December 15, 2008
It wasn't a bad trade at all. Your entire argument is after the fact and still doesn't prove anything.
We didn’t lose anything worth value and we made an effort to get into the playoffs. If we didn’t make the trade and didn’t make the playoffs you would be bitching that we didn’t make a move at all.
The End.
Charmin519 - December 15, 2008
fallacious argument
at least i’m basing my argument on facts, whereas you are resorting to how you believe I would be behaving in an alternate universe. and this all rests on your premise about not losing anything of value, which i admit is possible. but many, including myself and Baseball America would disagree.
until next time…
son.of.sourman - December 15, 2008
i think its far fetched to say we didnt give up anything of value, the fact of the matter is we wont know what we gave up until Andrus and Feliz actually play in a major league uniform (or if they ever do).
the way i look at it is we gave up some prospects one we sold high on, (salty) and then two really young guys who we thought we could afford to lose… in return we got one fo the top3 1B and a very good reliever. which we turned into Kotchman and Marek and DeVall. IF DeVall turns into Santana (not a comparison just an example) and Andrus and Feliz dotn do anythign than this is the greatest trade in the history of the world, based off your thinking… which is fine. but the way msot people value a trade is at the time it occured. esp when u are dealing with projection of young players still. in ten years if Andrus and Feliz are all stars and DeVall doesnt do anything and MArek sucks. then Ill agree this was a bad trade in hindsight. But until we have some factual proof that Adrus and Feliz> Kotchman, Marek and DeVall… ill continue to beleive the trade was at minimum decent
Swo12bv - December 15, 2008
Your comments were cute the first five times I heard them. Not anymore.
I fully understand the situation, when Wren brings over two players in a trade and they live up to their end of the bargain. It’s that simple. Tex had a 163 OPS+ and Mahay had a 189 ERA+ for the remainder of 2007. Get a fuckin’ clue.
Smoltz's Beard - December 16, 2008
I really wish everyone would figure out not to engage in a discussion with this son.of.sourman. He never says anything worth hearing and he argues just to argue. Just say no everyone!
cbwilk - December 16, 2008
and yet...
that wasn’t enough to make the playoffs and thus…it was a mistake. unless of course devall turns out to be a god (and had tex been resigned at some discount). of course you could always say that the braves could turn feliz and andrus into peavy or someone right now easy, at which point it’s definitely a loss.
here try this analogy. it’s a hold em (poker) analogy. Player one has a Jack and an 8 (J8) and player two has a 2 and 4. Player two raises a lot before the flop and player one calls. The flop is Ace-Ace-8. Player two raises all in, and player one calls. You might say this is a great call because there is every reason to think player two has an ace, but player one has called the bluff. Unfortunately, the next two cards are 4s and player one loses on a bad beat.
You are trying to tell me that player one did the right thing, and I’m here to tell you that you are wrong. He lost the tournament, he’s out of money, it’s over. If he could go back and not call that, he would. You’ve got to judge the decision by the point of maximum information – why go back in time and ignore what we know now? We know now that this trade was not a good trade.
son.of.sourman - December 16, 2008
That's funny
You’re using a game of pure chance in an analogy for baseball? The only skill involved in poker is knowing the percentages.
1. Player one was wrong to call the initial raise in your scenario with a hand as pathetic as J 8 even though he had 61% chance to win the hand.
2. Player two was wrong to raise in the first place. A significant raise such as this pre-flop is a clear indicator of a bluff (overplaying their hand) not to mention he has less than 38% chance to win the hand.
3. Player one should have called after the flop knowing 1 and 2. He has 97% chance to win the hand. He still has better than 95% chance to win the hand after the first 4 fell.
4. Last, this is the worst poker hand ever played by both parties! Player one should have folded pre-flop based on player twos raise and player two won’t last much longer because he doesn’t know how to play poker.
So, based on the percentages of player one winning the hand, the only move he made that was questionable was the initial call. Every move from there on was right. Player one made his decisions based on the maximum information at the time of the play. Insinuating that he could somehow see into the future and know a bad beat was coming is ridiculous and shows your ignorance on the subject. The only problem with player one’s strategy is that he was unlucky on the river.
Now then, how exactly does this pertain to a baseball trade?
scstrato - December 16, 2008
+1
jc25 - December 16, 2008
Bad idea
Making gambling analogies here. I can think of at least six users who have (severe) gambling addictions.
royhobbs - December 16, 2008
i haven’t placed a bet for a year, fuck you
bigjoe - December 16, 2008
disagree
one could argue that the skill in being a GM is understanding that all outcomes are probabilistic, and even the most sure thing has a confidence interval around it.
I’m not ignorant on the subject. I didn’t insinuate that player one could see the future. See my other writings on that subject. The fact is that we know the outcome and he does now as well. Knowing that – it was a bad move. He woudl not choose to do that again. I wish we could live in a world where doing the right thing always led to the right outcome (or maybe i don’t, i’ll have to think about that). Regardless, we don’t live in that world. All we care about is the outcome, what happened. Player one lost money and the braves lost some sweet prospects, that could be turned into an ace right now.
son.of.sourman - December 16, 2008
No again
The “move” wasn’t bad, it had an unlucky outcome but that doesn’t make it bad. The “bad” move was the ridiculous raise that ended in a lucky outcome, but that doesn’t make it good.
Exactly, the right thing (player one making the all-in call) did not lead to the right outcome (player two winning on odds of less than 2%).
You can’t spin this analogy any other way, every statistician and odds maker on the planet will tell you the same thing.
scstrato - December 16, 2008
that's a complete lie
i work with one of the most prominent statisticians in the country and we’ve had many conversations on this very topic. i used to argue your position (evaluate the play by how it was made at the time) but over time has convinced me that one can evaluate decisions both ways.
he’s much better spoken and erudite that I am, but at least I can say i was open minded enough to see his reasoning over time. although i was just as against it as you are now at the time.
son.of.sourman - December 17, 2008
You’re a lost cause, man.
Smoltz's Beard - December 16, 2008
that is easier to say than admit you're wrong
i’ll give you that.
it’s just the very simple idea, that you can do what seems right at the time, but it is still a mistake if it turns out wrong.
i can make a great call or fold given the current information, but there is still a good chance it’s a mistake.
and in the case of this trade, i’m not even sure it was a good move at the time. someone clearly misevaluated the talent on the team to think that Tex and Mahay would be enough.
and i’m sticking to my guns that having feliz and andrus right now would buy a really nice SP
son.of.sourman - December 16, 2008
I’m not admitting I’m wrong, because you have done nothing to convince me otherwise. The main problem with your argument is that you’re unwilling to acknowledge the shades of gray that exist in baseball. The FO made a trade to put us in a better position to make the playoffs and both of those players did just that…it is not the fault of either of them that we didn’t.
If Feliz and Andrus both come to the majors and dominate I will gladly admit that I am wrong. But until that happens calling the trade an obvious loss is stupid.
And please stop bringing up the fact that those prospects could be used RIGHT NOW to get us an ace. We’ve made a dozen moves since the Tex trade and there’s a good chance that Salty/Harrison/Feliz/Andrus/Jones would have been included in one of them. Way too many permutations to even consider. But then again, that is your black-and-white thinking rearing it’s ugly head.
Smoltz's Beard - December 16, 2008
you could get me to agree
that the braves were right about what Tex and mahay woulld bring to the table, but woefully wrong about what the existing team would contribute.
son.of.sourman - December 16, 2008
I’m glad someone else posted that quote so that I didn’t have to. I simply must add: ha ha
rocket8188 - December 15, 2008
Anyone else on the BA prospect chat? And anyone have a question they want me to ask if they aren’t?
yondaime4 - December 15, 2008
Isn't there a better pick for corner OF in 2012 than Gorkys?
parish - December 15, 2008
From my February 2008 issue of Beckett Baseball, the Rookie Card Issue:
Prospects for 2008: Double A
Analysis: Spot Starter/Middle Reliever
10-4 - December 15, 2008
Dammit i forgot to put who that was about
Its about Tommy Hanson.
FAIL.
10-4 - December 15, 2008
Eh...
Mike Piazza was a 62nd round pick, number 1390 overall in 1988. Three years later, Brien Taylor (from my old HS by the way) went #1 overall. It happens.
I think a bigger fail would be when the Braves, way back in the day, decided that Willie Mays was worth only an $8,500 dollar signing bonus instead of the $10,000 he eventually took from the Giants.
BraveBronco0121 - December 15, 2008
Um, $1500 was a lot of money back then
Seriously though, to think that the only thing standing between an outfield of Aaron, Mays, and who cares was a couple thousand dollars…
buzzdeadwax - December 15, 2008
We basically have that now
With Diaz and Blanco.
TradeAndruw - December 15, 2008
i just talked to my dad (he grew up in milwauke when the braves were there) (not that anyone gives a shit) but imagine this the lineup would have been Aaron, Mays, Mattthews…. thats somewhere around 2000 HR… tell me if you were a pitcher and u saw that u wouldnt shit urslef
Swo12bv - December 15, 2008
i actually did a little just thinking about it.
yondaime4 - December 16, 2008
lol
honey, get the towel! i think there’s a nostalgia mark in my underwear again.
brndn - December 16, 2008
the “FAIL” was referring to me not putting the name along with the information.
10-4 - December 15, 2008
BA does some very good work in evaluating players but their chats are a little too positive. Dont feel like they give you the best grasp of the individual weaknesses of prospects. Not the biggest Keith Law fan in the world, but I do appreciate that he doesnt dick around and is not reluctant to criticize. I know why BA sells the all positive image but still annoys me at times
jeg - December 16, 2008
I think when they do the prospect handbook they do a better job of criticizing players. I understand the idea of looking on the bright side of guys though. You really don’t want to sell somebody short and have them turn into a stud and make you look foolish.
cbwilk - December 16, 2008
the handbook does do a slightly better job but it still isnt all that great. part of it has to be that BA gets most of their scouting reports from the scouts of the individual teams, who dont want to see their prospects undervalued and thus BA is acting in its best interest by not being too critical in oder to keep getting the evaluations from the scouts.
jeg - December 16, 2008
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Talking Chop to post a comment.