This whole off-season got off to a sour note for Atlanta Braves fans after we spent a month wagging the dog every day over whether or not Jake Peavy would have an "A" on his cap. It was a pursuit that offered up mixed feelings for Braves fans. On one hand, we would be getting an immensely talented ace pitcher to front our rotation for years to come. On the other hand, we would likely be giving up the keys to our farm system for years to come, something many fans, including me, didn't want to see happen for one player -- not after we did the same thing just 16 months earlier.
But our flirtation with this trade turned into frustration and eventually silence. From all of the reports we heard, and there were many, what the Braves offered the Padres was a substantial return for Peavy -- a top shortstop (Escobar), a top center fielder (Gorkys), a highly rated young pitcher (Locke), and reportedly a couple of other highly regarded prospects. That 5-for-1 would be the most we've ever given up for one player in a trade. But apparently, it wasn't enough.
Now, in the aftermath of the second failed Peavy trade, we get this tidbit from Tim Dierkes at MLBTR:
Talked to a person familiar with the Cubs' thinking...he really could not see the Cubs revisiting a Peavy trade. The Padres need to get Peavy's $63MM off the books soon, yet were trying to swing 6-for-1 or 7-for-1 deals for him despite the extremely limited market.
Towers doesn't seem to be operating like a GM who needs to get money off the books. We know that money is not coming off the books by trading Brian Giles, because Giles and his no-trade clause will have none of it, so the only option seems to be to get rid of Peavy... but demanding six or seven players in return -- that's unprecedented.
Towers may yet find a trade partner other than the Braves and the Cubs. The Angels are now reportedly offering a package in exchange for Peavy. This is a pretty shrewd move by the Angels, figuring that Towers may be lowering his price and getting desperate after not working out a deal with anyone yet. Or maybe the Angels' fans will discover what Braves and Cubs fans learned over the last two months, that it's a waste of time trying to figure out what Kevin Towers is trying to accomplish. No one faults him for trying to rebuild his team, but he can't possibly think it will happen by trading one player.
The Peavy situation should remind people of what transpired last year when the Twins tried to first trade Johan Santana to the Yankees and Red Sox, and after failing, finally settled on a deal to the Mets -- seemingly the last willing buyer. The prospect-rich Yanks and Sox didn't succumb to the high demands of the Twins.
There's going to be a lot of talk about getting back into the Peavy sweepstakes over the next couple of weeks, especially if, as it looks, we lose out on the A.J. Burnett bonanza, but don't be fooled into thinking that we could get him the second time around either, or that Towers will come down from his asking price. The end game here, if we lose out on Burnett, is how desperate Frank Wren will be to find the ace he covets.
We'll get to see if four days of Winter Meetings produced any fruitful talks that could develop into a trade. There are already indications that other trades may be in the works, but we'll have to wait and see. But even if we get Burnett, Frank Wren still has work to do to make this team competative. This is perhaps the biggest rebuilding job any Braves GM has faced since before 1991. With everything that has transpired this off-season, in the next two to three months, we'll get to see if Wren is really up to the task of rebuilding the Braves.
0 recs | 36 comments
So Far...
There’s just no reason to panic. We all figured we’d fill one of our needs via trade, it just ended up being the #2 slot in our rotation (Vazquez) instead of LF as widely expected. We did so in a way that should allow us to spend reasonable ammounts of money, if necessary, to address our other needs. Though we’ve been acting like it, Burnett is not the only ace available; our dogged pursuit of A.J. reminds me of the vigorous trade talks with the Pads earlier this offseason and we all know (and probably appreciate) how that turned out. Wren knows his limits (they seem to be in line with those of Reason) and I still hope that we turn our attention to Ben Sheets, instead of trading for Jake Peavy, once the Yanks overpay for A.J. Burnett. Would anyone be truly disappointed if we end up with Vazquez, Sheets (2/$32M – 3/$45M) and Dunn (something resembling the aforementioned deal for Ben) when the offseason dust settles?
ejruiz - December 12, 2008
Sounds good to me.
Smoltz's Beard - December 12, 2008
i cant stand DUnn… he is genetically predisposed to using his off hand when he hits
Swo12bv - December 12, 2008
Am I the only one...
…who isn’t the least bit surprised that the Winter Meetings turned out so unfruitful? The Braves might have had the money to pursue free agents, but the problem was that other teams (read: Yankees) also want the same free agents.
Just reading around the internets, and especially with what DOB mentioned yesterday, I’ve had this thought in my head that just seems to ring truer and truer with each strikeout on a potential acquisition. Nobody wants to come to Atlanta to play.
What happened the last few years that makes Atlanta such an unappealing place to play? Turner Field leans towards a pitchers park, and money’s likely the factor in why all the pitchers go elsewhere. And sure, Ted Turner might not be pushing $112 million payrolls anymore, but the TW/Liberty $80-86 million payrolls of recent years are still nothing to sneeze at, and there are far more teams that have significantly less to spend. It’s like the Braves have money, but still have a reputation for pinching pennies, and free agents become disinterested.
Is it Boras? Is it Bobby? Is it the legacy of Schuerholz, or the fear of Wren? Do big-name players feel that resurrecting success in Atlanta seems like a daunting task, and don’t want that kind of pressure? Am I the only one, if for example, were in AJ Burnett’s shoes, would feel that $80mil from the Braves would just feel different than $80mil from the Yankees? ..and not in a good way?
And RE: ejruiz’s question of Vasquez/Sheets/Dunn – that would make a great and successful offseason of acquisitions.
royhobbs - December 12, 2008
I don’t think we’re as attractive a destination as we’ve been in the past. Bobby has always been a big draw but who knows how long he will be here – probably a year or two more at most. We’re rarely going to be the high bidders on the real big-ticket guys, and we’re unfortunately in a position where we’re more than one player away from being a contender again. Players want:
1. money
2. to be happy, and
3. to win
In that order. Right now we offer 2, and that’s subject to change if management turns over.
matches - December 12, 2008
I for one, really care about the future of the Atlanta Braves and it looks pretty bright. I don’t want to over pay for Burnett (though I’ve always thought he could be a great pitcher) who could very well become a Mike Hampton. I’d love to get Peavy, but I don’t like the idea of giving up a lot of talent in return. But you never know if a prospect will live up to expectations.
I would honestly rather play it safe and play for the future. We should be good in a couple of years regardless of landing Peavy or Burnett. I’m still not sold that even if we get one that we’ll be competitive in our own division with the Mets and Phillies still looking strong.
I’ll still be rooting for the Braves this year regardless of what deals get made or don’t happen and I’ll still go to games and watch them play.
Sparhawk - December 12, 2008
I agree
I would rather wait a couple more years to win than trade some of the key players that would make us win three years from now. Kevin Towers does seem to have an odd logic for someone that MUST trade Peavy. I think Frank Wren should stay strong and wait for Towers to call him, if he doesn’t, who cares, we get to keep all of those prospects.
nick9314 - December 12, 2008
Peavy is better than AJ
Even when you consider the price in prospects in addition to his salary. He is just a better pitcher. He is more durable, and a proven winner.
I really want the braves to revisit these talks, you are not going to find a more legitimate and proven ace on the trade market.
dmack - December 12, 2008
If Towers still demands that Yunel is included who’s going to play SS for us? Lillibridge is gone, Renteria has already signed, Furcal looks like he’s going to play in Oakland (at least the last time I checked)…
Smoltz's Beard - December 12, 2008
And that's why the deal is dead...
The top prospects (Hanson, Schafer, Heyward, and Freeman) aren’t moving, at least that is what Wren is saying right now. Yunel can’t move because we wouldn’t have a replacement outside of perhaps Furcal, and he probably won’t be on the market much longer. Unless Towers backs off his demands considerably, Peavy will not be a Brave next year.
As for the rest of the offseason, I love the Vasquez acquisition. Worst case scenario is that we got a reliable innings-eater to lend some stability to a rotation that was in bad shape last year. I don’t think Flowers was too much of a price to pay for that – he had a great season, but was old for his league and probably won’t stick as a catcher at the major league level.
Right now, I would be looking to sign Adam Dunn to a 3 year deal going as high as 40 million. Sure, I realize he’s left handed, but I’m not too worried about that. He’s a lock for .240/.380/.500 in 150 games. That’s a massive upgrade over anyone else we’ll be putting in the outfield in 2009. I’m glad Ibanez is off the table – he’s not the hitter that Dunn is, and he’s actually worse in the field.
As for more help in the rotation, I think it’s very unfortunate that Atlanta isn’t going after Derek Lowe. He’s not a flashy target, but he has a track record of durability and effectiveness that compares favorably to A.J. Burnett and Ben Sheets. Despite being 36, I think he’s a better bet to retain his value over four years than either of the other two big pitchers left and CERTAINLY better than Randy Wolf. Why are we even talking about him?
BraveBronco0121 - December 12, 2008
We’re on the same page. I’ll go ahead and bring up one more number to support Dunn: .833
That’s his career OPS against LH pitchers. The fact that he bats left handed should not deter us from signing him.
Smoltz's Beard - December 12, 2008
Why don't we trade KJ for Peavy
Pads need a second baseman. We put Locke, Reyes, Chuck James Gorky’s. We don’t give up the farm at all and we get our Ace for years. No trade clause has to go though.
Charmin519 - December 12, 2008
Personally, I don't want to trade KJ for Peavy
He’s a career .273/.356/.440 hitter who plays second. Unless you’re an awful fielder (which KJ is not) that’s very valuable, especially when that player hasn’t hit free agency yet. Realistically, I think KJ is probably worth about 12 million per year on the market and he’s only making a small percentage of that right now.
And really, I think there’s about a 60% chance Peavy’s arm explodes before his contract runs out. Not a big fan of his at this point.
BraveBronco0121 - December 12, 2008
Couldn’t agree more about Derek Lowe
H0SS - December 12, 2008
Trading Yunel alone makes trading for Peavy worse than Burnett, even considering the injury risks. The dropoff from Yunel to someone like Lillibridge (if he was still around) is huge. And signing an expensive FA SS to replace Yunel prevents the team from buying an impact bat. Peavy’s not exactly that durable either.
VictorW - December 12, 2008
Hit the nail on the head
Trading Yunel would be grossly irresponsible.
BraveBronco0121 - December 12, 2008
FW's moves so far
I’m a long-time lurker who hasn’t posted much(if at all) Sports Talk Radio here in Nashville had Danny Evans (former LAD GM) on and he said he spoke with Frank Wren and said that FW and his group were the best and most prepared for all scenarios that he met at the Winter Meetings (he said he met 29 of 30 teams groups). Said that FW and group have plan B, C, D, etc. I’m fully expecting to hear of at least 1 or 2 deals or signings a la Schuerholz(sp?) that we haven’t heard anything regarding. Or at least that’s what I’m hoping for.
CHill33 - December 12, 2008
Welcome to the discussion
That’s good info. Other than the question marks surrounding left field, I think Wren’s done a good job in the offseason. Not his fault that Towers wants way too much and that the Yankees are way overpaying.
VictorW - December 12, 2008
If it's anything like Scheuerholz
There will be a long wait period, but a pretty rapid fire succession of deals. I hope that this kind of event happens, and all of a sudden, news breaks that we have Sheets/Burnett, and have signed Adam Dunn, and traded some low prospects for some good relief prospects.
royhobbs - December 12, 2008
Maybe Wren is just waiting for Dunn's price to hit rock bottom
Brilliant!
VictorW - December 12, 2008
I agree completely.
Let’s hope this is how it happens.
CHill33 - December 12, 2008
Go Preds!
sddbaker - December 12, 2008
Go Preds!
I’m doing “Fang Fingers” now.
CHill33 - December 12, 2008
I like it, I love it...
…I want some more of it!
sddbaker - December 12, 2008
Peavy's not exactly that durable?
He’s pitched 200 innings 3 out of the last 4 seasons. I’m not trying to advocate anything, I just think it’s ridiculous to say that he’s not durable. You can speculate all you want about his arm slot and delivery, but he’s a durable pitcher.
garriscp - December 12, 2008
We all know Peavy would be our ace and isn't the injury risk burneet or sheets has.
If Wren can pull it without escobar and the farm he should do it. He should make the call and just say I got another serious offer but I need to know if Peavy waives his no trade clause. Handle that and I’ll make it happen for you towers. You keep face and we both get what we want. KJ,Locke, Reyes, James, Gorky’s. 5 for 2. We get a prospect back for either SS, 2b, or 3b. Done, now wait out for Pat at 8 mil/1 year with mutual option for 10 second year.
Charmin519 - December 12, 2008
He’s had a solid track record, but going forward, anyone expected Peavy to continue that level of success will be sorely disappointed. Speculate is the wrong word to use. Pitching injuries are almost always the result of flawed mechanics and/or conditioning issues. The elbow injury should be a red flag for anyone considering trading for him. Peavy exhibits problematic arm action that can explain his recent elbow problems. It’s not a coincidence that guys who have the same arm action suffer more injuries. Don’t be surprised to see Peavy break down, especially as he nears 30.
VictorW - December 12, 2008
Those poor mechanics, combined with a sub-par 2008 and time missed with "soreness in elbow" are why I think Peavy is a bad bet
BraveBronco0121 - December 12, 2008
if averaging nearly a K an inning, having a WHIP of 1.1, and an ERA under 3 is subpar, then i will so take subpar seasons.
bigjoe - December 12, 2008
It was subpar for him...
almost every single measure of his abilities dropped off in 2008, and unsurprisingly he missed starts due to a sore elbow. Those aren’t exactly good signs going forward. I’m not against getting him for cheap, but if we had to give up top prospects or one of KJ/Yunel, I’ll stand pat.
BraveBronco0121 - December 12, 2008
peavy career: 3.25, 1.186, 3:1, 8.96
peavy 2008: 2.85, 1.180, 2.81:1, 8.60
so yeah, HUGE DROPOFF
bigjoe - December 12, 2008
Peavy still pitched like an ace
But it was the worst walk rate and worst K rate he’s had in the last 5 years.
VictorW - December 12, 2008
Josh Kalk’s player cards says Peavy’s fastball went from 94 MPH in 2007 to 92 MPH in 2008, but Fangraphs says the fastball has always been in the 92 range. Fangraphs also shows a 2 MPH loss on his slider and cutter (after it had been consistent for the last 3 years). Either way, he’s lost some velocity on some of his primary pitches.
VictorW - December 12, 2008
No AJ or Peavy
http://www.prosportsdaily.com/comments/yank-aj-is-burning-for-bombers-182278.html
I just don’t see us outbidding the Yanks for Burnett. Whatever we offer the Yankees can up the ante. As for Peavy-it’s just not happening.
tennesseejed - December 12, 2008
According to some paper in New Jersey, AJ is "pondering"
per mlbtraderumors.com
10-4 - December 12, 2008
I just don't understand
The Kevin Towers school of dealing. Who wants to do a deal with this guy now? His demands are completely unreasonable and he’s reaching for everything. If you’re the owner of the Padres trying to dump payroll because of your divorce, you have to be steamed right now at Towers. I suppose you could commend him for sticking to his guns, but he’s the guy making the most unreasonable demands I’ve ever seen a GM do in the time I’ve followed baseball. He says Peavy is tradeable, but with his demands Peavy effectively becomes untradeable.
AuditDawg - December 14, 2008
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