At the major league level…
… possibly the best trading chip the Braves have is shortstop-turned-outfielder-turned-second-baseman Kelly Johnson. His power and plate discipline are a rare find in a second baseman and the Braves have a perfectly good replacement in Martin Prado, who spent the last two months showing the team that he can play everyday. While the Braves would lose power from the lineup if Johnson were traded, the second base spot is not traditionally a spot you look to produce power for your club.
If the Braves could trade the middling power of Johnson for a rotation arm or power bat at a corner outfield spot, then we should expect a similar (maybe not as great, but similar) return that we got last year for Edgar Renteria. This situation is actually a lot like last year. Renteria was an established starter, as I think Kelly Johnson is now (although, not yet the All-Star Renteria was), and just like we had a major league ready shortstop waiting in the wings in the form of Yunel Escobar, we also have a major league ready second baseman in Martin Prado waiting to step in.
If no trade is made -- and they may opt to trade neither player, wanting to keep Prado as a backup to Chipper -- then we will have some excellent depth at second. It may also present an interesting scenario if Johnson struggles in spring training and Prado does not. It would be a gut check to take the starting job away from Johnson and give it to Proado. This leads me to believe even stronger that the team will opt to trade from strength and look to shop Johnson. Omar Infante also provides depth in the infield and insurance against injury.
The future Braves second baseman…
… In a system lean with second base prospects, 2007 seventh-round draftee Travis Jones stands out as the best. He doesn’t get as much attention as guys like Heyward, Freeman, Gilmore, or even Hicks or Flowers, but Jones has a couple of things strongly in his favor; (1) there is really no one else in the high or mid minors that has as much up-side at second base as he does, and (2) it can’t hurt to have a last name like Jones in the Braves system.
Travis Jones combines good and improving defense with both speed and power on the bases. He may have gotten too power-hungry at the Beach this year, and while he hit 16 homeruns, his strikeouts jumped up greatly to 107, and it seemed to affect his plate discipline as his average dropped to .248. Jones needs to cut down his swing next year and get back to being more of a contact hitter. If he can do that and continue to improve the rest of his game, he will be a useful option at the major league level one day.
More for future consideration…
2. Robert Brooks – He was the best hitter on the Braves Gulf Coast League team this year, and could be another JuCo surprise. He showed a great all-around game in Rookie ball, hitting for good gap power and completing 12 of 13 steal attempts. He should be ready for a full season club next year as no one at Rome really impressed.
3. Diory Hernandez – He may be more suited to be listed in the “utility player” category, but for our purposes he slots at second. There isn’t too much to get terribly excited about with Diory, but again he could find a major league future as a utility player.
4. J.C. Holt – He is right on the edge between showing everyday promise and nothing more than a utility guy. His speed makes him valuable. He didn’t really show too much improvement this year, repeating both of the same leagues he played at last year, so he should be moved down a bit.
5. Cole Miles – Another small, scrappy second baseman. Like Holt, Miles has good speed, but lacks a little in the plate discipline category. He still has to prove he’s more than just a utility guy, but he’s much younger than Holt and still has time.
Others: Elys Blanco (another speedy second baseman who also showed good plate discipline in the DSL)
0 recs | 35 comments
I don't think..
…that two months is a good gauge to say that Prado can be a everyday Major League second baseman. I just don’t see, and don’ t buy into the hype.
RainDelay - October 1, 2008
I agree that 2 months really isnt enough time to say that Prado is an every day player. But the Braves did decide that Escobar was ready after essentially the same amount of time. So although I dont think that they should trade KJ and give the starting job to Prado, I wouldnt be surprised if they do it.
Also I dont think that trading KJ alone will net a good enough pitcher, or OF. And if they have to trade him, and a prospect like Gorky’s, or someone like that then I am against trading him.
gopherbroke - October 1, 2008
Yeah..
Then again Yunel got more at-bats than Prado did last year to this year.
Prado: 228
Esco: 319
not that it shows us much, but I don’t put stock in the last two months – its just like spring training and I just can’t buy into the Prado hype. He’s not going to hit like he did this year if he’s an everyday player – and honestly KJ has more power than Prado most likely ever will.
RainDelay - October 1, 2008
I agree that prado is cant sustain what he did this year. He has never done this before at any level.
gopherbroke - October 1, 2008
Worth more than renteria?
Actually, I disagree with two things about KJ. First, he is both cheaper and younger than Edgar. While not an All Star, his upside is better than what Detroit recieved w/ Renteria. Plus, Kelly is significantly cheaper and is arbitration eligible for the first time this year.
He will be a Free Agent in three years correct? So, whatever team the Braves trade him too will get two or three years of service.
Shouldn’t that net a fair number of prospects, as opposed to an older more expensive player?
dmack - October 1, 2008
I think that KJ may indeed be more valuable than Renteria, but from what Frank Wren has said the braves are looking to add 2 top of the rotation starters, and an impact OF bat. I dont see KJ being enough to snag either of those commodities.
I think that everyone can agree that receiving Jurrjens and Gorky’s for Renteria was a great haul, but no one expected Jurrjens to turn into a number 2 starter for us this year. And i dont see another guys like him out there.(Admittedly however not many saw Jurrjens becoming a 2 right away so i guess it could happen again)
Like I said above if the Braves have to package one of their top 10 prospects (Heyward, Hanson, Schafer, Freeman, Gorky’s, Flowers, et al) then it isnt worth it. If they could package say KJ, and Jo-Jo or Chuck James, or Charlie Morton for a number 2 type starter or an OF bat then I think that would be worth it assuming Prado can step in and produce at least similar OBP numbers to KJ. We would then be giving up the power KJ adds at 2B, and replacing it with a power hitting OF. But KJ alone isnt going to be enough to get back what the braves need in return.
gopherbroke - October 1, 2008
One reason I said that we may not get as good a return for KJ as we did for Rents is that I can’t imagine ANYONE trading what Detroit did for Rents last year… especially in the pitching department. Now we may find another Bavasi/Dombrowski out there to swindle a young pitcher out of (Sabean comes to mind), but it’s going to be hard. I haven’t taken a real hard look at the second base market, but a quick glance at second baseman tells me that KJ is in the top half of second sackers in baseball (7th in OPS among qualifiers). Add to that his flexibility to hit high in the order for on-baseness or low in the order for power, and you’ve got a very tradable commodity. There may be teams out there (Houston, Toronto) who need a second baseman and are willing to surrender some outfield power or starting pitching.
And amongst all of our players, we do have replacements for him (Prado or Infante) and he still has some very good trade value (for the reasons you mentioned).
gondeee - October 1, 2008
Positional Value...
Renteria was a SS. Kelly’s a 2B. Major league short stops are significantly more valuable than secondbasemen. While Kelly does have value, it is lower than the value of Renteria. We might could get a young minor league pitcher but wouldnt get a prospect equal to the value of Gorkys. Package Flowers, Shafer, Lillibridge, and Kelly to KC for Greinke. Then target a 2B with some speed in another trade (A. Casilla from MIN?). We are lacking a true leadoff hitter to open things up at the top of the lineup. Swap M. Gonzalez to TB for E. Jackson. Then sign B. Fuentes. Also, Blanco and Anderson arent everyday players
jeg - October 1, 2008
Yes but there were already questions about Edgar’s defensive range when he was dealt. That seems like an awful lot to give away for Grienke. If Blanco and Anderson are not everyday players, and you just traded Schafer, then who plays CF next year?
Do not like the Gonzalez for Edwin Jackson trade at all b/c it leaves the closer spot wide open. Even when Soriano is healthy, he is hittable. His breaking ball hangs more often than not. Gonzo has a much better breaking pitch and is left handed. While Edwin has good stuff, he is unproven.
Plus, you still have not solved the lack of power in LF.
dmack - October 1, 2008
Wren has already said he is not going to give up any of the Heyward, Hanson, Schafer, Flowers, Gorky’s, Freeman Group, let alone almost all of them.
Greinke is way to expensive prospect wise for the braves, Jackson isnt a front of the rotation starter, and why deal gonzalez and sign fuentes when Gonzalez will be much cheaper, and cash will be better spent elsewhere. Also Casilla is not going to be available. He is young, cheap and under team control for years more… Sounds like the perfect Twin to me.
They will likely pursue either starter, or an OF in trade, and then try and sign what they still need through free agency.
gopherbroke - October 1, 2008
jeg not sure how you came up with those trades but you are opening other holes with them. Grienke is going to require a lot and he scares me because of his personel issues. Edwin Jackson really turned his career around this year but it says a lot when his team doesn’t even include in their ALDS series. Gonzo should not be traded for any reason if the braves want to compete next year.
jasonbravo - October 1, 2008
Jackson..
…pitched his way out of the ALDS roster in the final month or so of the year.
RainDelay - October 1, 2008
if heyward, hanson, schafer, flowers, gorkys, and freeman are all unavailable, we arent going to acquire anything of value in a trade. True frontline pitching doesnt come cheap and demand is much much higher than supply. look up the kind of prospects teams have had to surrender to get a young frontline pitcher in recent years. i mention fuentes as a replacement for gonzo. Jackson is steadily improving and the year he had this year as a starter has more value to a team than gonzalez’s best year as closer has. if we did those things, we would still have around 35+ million to spend in the free agent market. to fill three holes, CF, LF, SP (Abreu, Wolf, Trade?)
jeg - October 1, 2008
even just adding medlen to the KC package might be enough to get kc to add dejesus to the deal. bring hampton and ohman back as well. So youd be looking at a rotation of Greinke, Jurrjens, Wolf, Jackson, Hampton/ Reyes/ Morton/ Smoltz/ Hanson/ campillo. bullpen of fuentes, soriano/ stockman, ohman, acosta, boyer, bennett, one of the losers of the race for 5th rotation spot. lineup of 2b casilla, cf dejesus, 3b chipper, lf abreu, c mccann, ss escobar, 1b kotchman, rf francoeur. bench of sammons, prado, infante, blanco, and anderson/ diaz. greatly improved depth and quality of the pitching staff and have very deep lineup
jeg - October 1, 2008
Ten man rotation! Love it!
I know that’s not what you meant….I liked reading it that way, though…..
secondbass - October 1, 2008
do more research
not your finest article.
1. as some of said, johnson will not get the same pot that renteria did, or likely even close. the braves managed to hit the freewheelin tigers at the right time last year, and renteria was coming off a huge season.
2. prado, really? i’ll say it right now: he’s not the future. a utility infielder at best, his babip has been way too high this year to sustain.
son.of.sourman - October 1, 2008
well here are there numbers
Escobar in 2007: 319 AB, 54 R, 104 H, 25 doubles, 0 triples, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 144 TB, 27BB, 44 SO, 5 SB, .385 OBP, .451 SLG, .325 AVG
Prado this year: 228 AB, 36 R, 73 H, 18 doubles, 4 triples, 2 HR, 33 RBI, 105 TB, 21 BB, 29 SO, 3 SB, .377 OBP, .461 SLG, .320 AVG
He put up similar number to Escobar and if he would have got the same amount of at bats prolly would have put up the same or better numbers than Escobar. And me and alot of people was for Escobar to be the starter. So i think Prado can handle Second i mean he out slugged Escobar which is a SS. But i guess the ones that KEEPS on sayin that Prado is not a everyday player are the SAME ones that did not think that Escobar was an everyday player either. Why cant Prado be a future Second baseman for us? He is one year younger than Escobar and one year older than McCann. I think Prado can be our future second baseman just as much as anybody could at that position.
rockybull - October 1, 2008
if escobar hits like he did this year, he’s not gonna be a starter for long.
bigjoe - October 1, 2008
well
for one thing i think he was really hurtin from injuries. But his defense was great this season and plus who you got in mind to replace him EVEN if he did put up the same numbers in 09?
rockybull - October 1, 2008
Escobar 08 – 288/366/401
Average SS – 271/333/390
He had the ninth best EQA among shortstops with 400 PAs. He was fifth in RZR. He’s by any reasonable definition no worse than the 10th most valuable shortstop in baseball. He’s a keeper.
17843 - October 1, 2008
and yes i realize that we had an aging SS in Renteria and we have a young Second baseman in KJ so it was much easier to make Escobar the starter. And if we cant get a good starter or LF for KJ then we shouldn’t trade him but if we can then i expect KJ gone.
rockybull - October 1, 2008
This ignores the fact Martin Prado is a terrible defensive second baseman and has put up such gaudy stats by having a 357 BABIP this season. If we adjust that to a 320 BABIP his line would look something like 280/340/400. That’s not bad if he’s providing value with the glove, but his career RZR is .766; far below even the lowest ML regular second baseman. The drop-off from Johnson to Prado is something like 3-4 wins over a full-season.
17843 - October 1, 2008
You act like Johnson is a gold glove second baseman. Prado was highly regarded as a defensive wiz when he was in the minors. I mean the dude plays, second, Third, and First base in the majors. He plays all over the place, maybe ONCE he starts starting everyday at ONE position maybe his glove will start to look good again, you ever thought about that?
rockybull - October 1, 2008
Sure. His sample size isn’t exactly tiny though (~30 games) and he starts at such a low level even improving won’t make him a good defender. BA said neither his range nor arm were overwhelming this spring.
And Johnson may not be a Gold Glover, but he’s fielded to the rate of a 819 RZR in 07/08 compared to a 826 RZR average in 07/08; ie, he’s about 99% the fielder an average 2B is – he doesn’t lose much with the glove. Prado’s 766 RZR is about 93% the fielder an average 2B is. Eliminating all the fancy math, that’s about 8 runs over the course of a season or about a win just on defense. No one here can make an intelligent argument that Martin Prado can hit at Kelly Johnson’s level over a full-season.
Now, if Lillibridge can be converted to second base (he certainly has the arm and range, just a question of making the turn) then I would trade Johnson. Lillibridge would be plus defensively, at least adequate offensively, and would add a speed element that the Braves lack. He’s the Braves second baseman of the future if Johnson isn’t.
17843 - October 1, 2008
I agree i CANT make an intelligent argument that Prado can hit at KJ’s level over a full-season. No way i can do that and i wont even try. And yes i think KJ is a better overall player than Prado. But like i have been sayin I think that if we get a good starter or LF for KJ then you pull the trigger because i believe Prado or Lillibridge can put up numbers CLOSE to what KJ has done this year.
How is Lillibridge the FUTURE Second baseman for the Braves and Prado is not? Lillibridge is a month older than Prado and for MOST of the year in AAA barely hit ABOVE the damn mendoza line and Prado had a very good season in this year in the Majors. So how can you say that Lillibridge is the future second baseman and NOT add Prado to that argument?
rockybull - October 1, 2008
Because Lillibridge has better range, better power potential, better speed, and at least equal on-base skills. Prado’s ceiling is as a slap hitter who doesn’t play very good defense; Lillibridge’s ceiling is considerably higher and it’s not like he’s far away from the majors.
17843 - October 2, 2008
but yet for MOST of the year in AAA Lillibridge hit at the mendoza line and Prado put up very good numbers in the majors this season. I just find it funny how people like you can keep sayin this argument and yall actually believe what yall are sayin. its comical. You say how one guy hit terrible in the damn minors is the future but yet say that a guy that hit GOOD in the damn MAJORS and is actually younger is NOT the future second baseman. I need some of that koolaid that yall are drinkin.
rockybull - October 2, 2008
Just saw this stat and thought it was interesting: from June 1st to August 31st Kelly hit .238 with 3 home runs and 24 RBI in 269 ABs.
cbwilk - October 1, 2008
Joel Campusano
Danville’s second baseman is worth mentioning too. He hit .291 in 50 games after hitting .349 in 31 games in the DSL last season. He’s probably a bit old at 21 and he doesn’t really have any power or speed, but he’s a decent little ballplayer.
cbwilk - October 1, 2008
don't trade kelly mistake it would be
you just have to love kj’s up side. because he is yet to play his best baseball i don’t think we want him doing it elsewhere. i think 2009 will be a big year for kj, frenchy, and the braves. come on frenchy get the smile on, that tongue out, grip it and rip it., see it and hit it. i’m rooting for ya
ATLBravesYouthMovement - October 2, 2008
Would this be a fair deal?
Braves get: Ian Snell __ Pirates get: Kelly Johnson, Charlie Morton or Jo-Jo Reyes
ChipperTeixeira89 - October 2, 2008
Kelly’s more valuable than Ian Snell. You’d have to make it a 2 for 1 the other way, Ian Snell and a guy like Ross Ohlendorf, Evan Meek, or Daniel McCutchen for Kelly.
cbwilk - October 2, 2008
why is everyone on this blog so deep on ian snell? dude is extremely hittable and has the control of a blindfolded drunk driver. if you want a pirate starter so bad, i’d much rather have maholm, gorzelanny, or even to roll the dice with duke
bigjoe - October 5, 2008
Why would you trade an above average 2nd baseman that you have salary control over for another 3 years and replace him with a below average 2nd utility infielder? I thought the goal was to get better, not worse.
lunatic96 - October 7, 2008
bingo.
bigjoe - October 7, 2008
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