What is .293 you ask? Well it just happens to be the on-base percentage of Jeff Francoeur in 2006. And this number is probably what most people point to as the biggest knock on our young star right-fielder.
Baseball-Reference has as the most similar batters to Jeff Francoeur through age 22 this list:
| Player | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|
| Duke Snider | .340 | .464 |
| Curt Blefary | .376 | .469 |
| Ellis Valentine | .337 | .473 |
| Jack Clark | .339 | .471 |
| Darryl Strawberry | .340 | .487 |
| Willie Davis | .329 | .455 |
| Willie Horton | .330 | .465 |
| Grady Sizemore | .345 | .470 |
| Max West | .334 | .435 |
| Gus Bell | .331 | .443 |
It's sort of a mixed bag of hot-out-of-the-gate young stars, some of whom fizzled and others who went on to have great careers. But what is not similar to Francoeur in this list is the on-base percentage numbers (the first column to the right of the name). Francoeur's .293 last year and .305 career OBP is far from the others on this list. But on the other hand, his .477 career slugging is higher than everyone but Darrrrryl. So while these are possible comps, there seems to be no player who matches both Francoeur's power ability and lack of plate discipline.
But that's just it, isn't it? Having an on-base percentage that is at least in the .330s is part of having a complete all-around game. Sure he can slug with the best of them and drive in runs (second on the team with 103 RBIs), but sixth on the team in runs scored might not cut it. Is that a symptom of hitting low in the batting order, or is it because of the low OBP (or both)? We may not know the answers to these questions for several more years; until we have several seasons from which to analyze Francoeur's abilities as they translate to the stats on the page.
So is the .293 really a cause for concern? Frenchy knows it's a hole in his game and he says he's going to work hard improving on it next year, but how long do we give him? If he hasn't improved upon that number in a couple of years, do we write him off, or do we live with that number? After all, for someone who primarily bats fifth or sixth in the lineup, do we care if he gets on base as long as he's driving a bunch of people in?
For his part, Francoeur did get better at getting on base as the season progressed:
| Month | OBP | OBP-Avg |
|---|---|---|
| April | .230 | .014 |
| May | .295 | .015 |
| June | .278 | .030 |
| July | .330 | .033 |
| August | .322 | .056 |
| September | .296 | .053 |
The first number is his on-base percentage for that month, and the second number is the difference between his batting average and OBP. As you can see, the differential between average and OBP increased just about every month, and the .330 and .322 numbers he posted in July and August might be more of a representation of what he will apply to his game next season than his April and May numbers. This gives us hope that he is indeed learning not only that he needs to get on base, but how to get on base.
Let's all hope that he doesn't end up as a regular at the bottom of the OBP list like Angel Berroa, Pedro Feliz, Adam Everett, or Jose Castillo. For now, we can only look at that .293 and see it as a lesson for a young player who is trying to get better.
0 recs | 6 comments
First Post!
Sorry i dunno why i did that. But...Frenchy's OBP is scary true. The thing that gives me a bit of relief with him, however, is that he understands he needs to take pitches and i think his struggles at the beginning the past season kind of helped cement it. The braves did not help him any when he was in the minors by pretty much telling him to "stay aggressive" (I.E. Swing at everything!). His Vlad like plate coverage is also a useful band-aid and he makes good contact desite having an apparently long swing. (His K numbers aren't that high for someone with 651 ABs out of the 5 hole in the order. Man if he were a leadoff hitter he would have gotten 700 ABs, whats the record fo ABs in a 162 game season?).
I digress. The kid has poor patience which may not necessarily mean poor plate discipline. Meaning, he just doesn't like waiting for a ball to hit when he thinks he can hit them all. Intangibles that could play a part here. A) He is best friends with Brian McCann who is probably one of the three smartest young hitters in baseball. B) He is a leader and team oriented, if he thinks raising his OBP will help the TEAM, he is inclined to learn. C) He has shown more and more willingness to take a walk and more willingness to listen to people who think he should.
Yes his walk numbers are scary, very very scray really. But he is 23 going into next season and immensely talented. He probably won't ever walk 100 or even 80 times, but i wouldn't be surprised if he works 50 or so in a couple of seasons which woudl put his line this year at 260/350/468. Which gives him an OPS of 819. Which would be excellent for a second ytear 22 yo power hitting RF.
yondaime4 - December 11, 2006
Overrated.
Francouer is half hype and half hope right now. Both McCann and LaRoche blow him out of the water in average, on base percentage and even slugging. They are stars, he just has the potential to be one. We need him to catch up to them in all three categories to ensure the long-term viability of our lineup.Chipper can't be counted on to play more than 110 games anymore, it looks as though Andruw won't be with us beyond 2007 and LaRoche is definitely still on the trading block this offseason, so the pressure is on for Francouer to step up and play to his potential. He could very well be our clean-up hitter going into 2008 and a .300ish OBP just doesn't cut it there.
ejruiz - December 11, 2006
Give Frenchy Time
There is no loopier subset of Braves fans than the "Francoeur is killing us and ought to be in Richmond" crowd. Luckily, they tend to congregate elsewhere. Yes, he has his share of brutal at-bats...but as long as the triple crown numbers are solid and we have the bats to pick him up, I've got no problem letting Jeff learn on the job. This guy's going to be the face of the franchise very soon (if he isn't already) and a year-in/year-out MVP threat.Piff Bocoroba - December 11, 2006
Amen...
.....preach it, Biff! I've always been a Francoeur fan and always will be. He is scary in a line up, and I mean that in a good way. Sure he may not produce in a given at-bat, but man, what he can do if he connects. Great person as well, which is such an under appreciated trait these days. I have 3 children who love baseball, and I'd much rather go watch Francoeur play with his enthusiasm and raw talent then just about anybody else.secondbass - December 11, 2006
OBP
"After all, for someone who primarily bats fifth or sixth in the lineup, do we care if he gets on base as long as he's driving a bunch of people in?"If you can wonder this with a straight face -- that is, if OBP is somehow less relevant for middle-of-the-order hitters -- you might want to go back to Sabermetrics 101.
steve viii - December 12, 2006
Honestly
I've never quite understood why OBP is more relevant than SLG and especially so for middle of the order hitters. I understand that OBP is a very valuable tool, but no one has been able to convince me that it is more valuable than SLG. Now, with that said, Francouer's decent SLG does not compensate for his attrocious OBP at this point, esp for a RF and esp for a 5-6 hole hitter. But in the end i think his meager walk total might be flukishly low, given it was his first year in the league and he showed steady progression throughout the season. Again, not saying he is a walking machine, but wouldn't be surprised if he walked 30-40 times next year which would improve his all round game some. Also wouldn't be surprised to see him take a few days off next season (a la Andruw Jones) and stay fresh and keen throughout the season.yondaime4 - December 12, 2006
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Talking Chop to post a comment.